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Rebutting Henry Makori’s Piece “10 Reasons Why Ruto Will Be Next President”

Ruto(4)

In a column published by the Star, its writer Henry Makori purported to offer these reasons which I now take time to dissect and show how none of them stands in the face of any scrutiny.

To offer full context of what Makori said in the piece, I quote him verbatim and what he said is in italics.

Kenyans love a fighter. The person who stands up to great odds is often a hero, regardless of what the fight is about.

Goes without saying and this is not peculiar to Kenyans alone; it’s a universal concept going back ages.

Ahead of the 2013 election, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto turned their arraignment at the ICC into an anti-imperialist platform and gave their opponents a run for their money.

True, even though I would not call that giving their opponents a “run for their money” as that phrase is commonly used. That phrase implies or assumes a certain level of fairness and open competition, not a competition where one side is aided by state machinery as was the case in 2013 where Uhuru and Ruto were the beneficiaries of state machinery.

In contrast, the likes of Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi, never known for a fight, hardly stir public emotion.

True but only to a certain extent.

Today, Ruto is the only fighter among political bigwigs.

False. Ruto is only fighting to survive and he knows the prospect of becoming president in 2022 is fast fading away. Put another way, the only way Ruto now becomes president is (a) convincing the system he is not the threat he is believed to be or (b) sits this one out but backs Raila or whoever Uhuru and Raila tosha, if it is not Raila.

Makori then goes on to give what he fashions as “10 reasons why he has a chance of becoming the fifth President:”—again, what he says is in italics.

  1. UHURU BETRAYAL

Ruto keeps his head high despite open betrayal by his boss.

Not true. Although in some cases Ruto has said words which in isolation can be interpreted as being the obedient deputy to the president, in many cases he has said and done things that directly undermine that position and, what he has not done to downright show contempt for Uhuru, his minions have done that for him without abandon, and obviously with his tacit approval.

As to “betrayal,” one can’t call what has happened between Uhuru and Ruto “betrayal.” True, Uhuru promised to support Ruto after completion of his term or the so-called “kumi kumi” pledge. But politicians not keeping promises given is nothing new; in fact, is one thing that all politicians have in common, namely, never take any of their words or promises as a given. If circumstances change, a politician will change direction and cause accordingly.

Kibaki shred his MoU with Raila and he went on to serve as president for 10 years. Raila has shred his MoU and he will use state machinery to have his successor of choice to come in as president and nothing Ruto can do to stop that, much as Raila was unable to stop Kibaki—and Raila had twice the support across the nation as Ruto does.

Uhuru has practically kicked him out of government and the ruling party, hounded some of his allies out of parliamentary leadership and targeted others in a selective war on graft.

True.

Ruto’s refusal to buckle under pressure will serve him well.

The odds are he will buckle under the tremendous pressure he is on and resign as deputy president; if not, those who want him out will find other ways to force him out.

  1. REFERENDUM IS UNPOPULAR

The prevailing view seems to be that a referendum is not what the country needs now but better implementation of the Constitution.

This is a view held by Ruto and those who support him. Obviously, there is the original view that remains and that is the one held by Uhuru, Raila and those who want to see an end to electoral violence every five years. That view is BBI is the solution and that is soon likely to come to pass.

Many believe the planned changes are not for the common good but to benefit Uhuru and Raila and lock out Ruto.

“Many” here means Ruto and those who support him. I refer you to my comment above.

 Like happened in 2005, Ruto is busy turning the referendum against the two.

Though there are some similarities between efforts to revamp the constitution in 2005 and what is being sought in implementing BBI, there are also dissimilarities that are even greater and dispositive of why Ruto cannot have a repeat of 2005. For one, the architect of 2005 revolt against Kibaki is this time protagonist in what would be the equivalent of Kibaki side in 2005. Ruto is no match for that and therefore put this one on the Yes column in terms of BBI referendum passage.

  1. RAILA’S BETRAYAL OF SUPPORTERS

The handshake killed the Raila brand.

False.

While there are many Raila supporters who were disillusioned with Raila’s decision to shake hands with Uhuru for they wanted him to lead them into a revolution or even a secessionist movement, those supporters themselves were and remain to be ill-advised and ill-informed. Raila’s move was a masterstroke that meets and surpasses opposition objectives and I’ll elaborate on this in my next column or one I’ll pen soon.

His millions of supporters wanted nothing short of a revolution following the repeat 2017 presidential election he boycotted.

I would not say “millions” but a significant portion among those who closely follow politics. That number is coming down to fewer and fewer because many now understand what the handshake was intended to deliver and is poised to do just that.

That was the point of Raila’s swearing-in as the “people’s president” on January 30, 2018.

It may have been (and I was personally opposed to the move and told Raila as much) but the handshake is the better alternative for a myriad of reasons no need to get into here.

The handshake was a painful betrayal and demobilized his support base – except the “cows.”

Again, initially, many of Raila’s supporters may have been disillusioned and even demoralized by the handshake but over time that has changed as nearly all of them now see the benefit of the handshake and what dividends lie in wait for its implementation.

Ruto will try to capitalize on Raila’s disgruntled supporters.

He is already doing that but he will fall short as what he is up against is simply insurmountable.

4.CORRUPTION ALLEGATIONS

Ruto has turned the war on corruption against Uhuru.

It is a decision he will live to regret.

People who argued that Uhuru was rich and could not be involved in corruption if he rose to power have had good reason to rethink that view.

That’s neither here nor there; what matters is Uhuru has the instruments and he can cause real pain for those engaged in corruption than anyone can ever do against him. With Raila on his side, this is a war those they target cannot possibly ever win.

Corruption accusations cannot stop one from being elected in Kenya. Ruto knows this.

Not true; if Uhuru wanted to, he could have the DP arrested and once again charged with corruption, except this time he will be bogged down with case after case to have room to breathe, let alone run for president. Just because this has not been done before does not mean the system doesn’t have it as one of its arrows in the quiver.

Kenyans tolerate corruption because of state failure. Given a chance, many would readily use public office for private gain. Graft is accepted as “working smart”

That may be true, but it is a double-edged sword. See my comment above.

  1. HUSTLER NATION

Jubilee promised Kenyans, especially the youth, heaven. It has delivered hell. Ruto has distanced himself from the government and resorted to using his money to help jobless youths (hustlers).

You cannot have your cake and have it! Ruto was fully in Jubilee for five years and he can’t run away from that record and say he is now for the “hustler” simply because he has been kicked out of Jubilee and the government for all practical purposes and intent.

The gullible will believe that use of money Ruto is accused of having obtained by corrupt means “to help the jobless” is somehow Godsent and a ticket to State House as president.

Far from it.

We do not need individuals dishing out money (a few shillings) to the poor and calling that a solution to what we need to have done. That was the whole basis of Moi politics—recall he said he can buy any vote for 100 bob. To promote this type of politics is the very definition of backwardness.

 This contrasts with the “dynasties” who are disconnected from the sufferings of Kenyans as they cut backroom deals to retain power and accumulate more.

This “dynasty v us” narrative is a fallacy peddled by Ruto and his supporters when Ruto is no different and probably worse than the purported dynasties themselves.

Reminds me of one Donald J Trump who fooled poor and racist whites that he is one of them and will help them fight to keep America white and he succeeded in doing so but those same whites and racists are no better off than they were in 2016; in fact, they are worse off!

Were Uhuru to become president, the poor will remain poor because there is no vision he has he could not have had implemented as deputy president and we no of no legislation or proposals he put forth to improve the conditions of the poor or to create jobs.

Everything he promised, the stadiums, the factories and so on none came to pass so he suffers the consequences though not exactly as Uhuru who, for his part, he simply wants to leave a country more peaceful and on a path to the development that eluded the duo last 7 years.

  1. NOT ANOTHER KIKUYU

Kenya’s politics is tribal. Everyone is aware three of Kenya’s four presidents are Kikuyu, two of them father and son. Uhuru told Kenyans he would support Ruto to succeed him. Jomo Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki betrayed allies who backed them to get state power. Ruto could benefit from the Kikuyu hoi polloi who reject being branded as betrayers one more time.

Here is a reality check for you: If you think Kikuyus who are supporting Ruto are doing for their love for the man or because Uhuru promised him 10 years, you are completely naïve and have no clue what is going on.

The only reason Ruto has enjoyed the support he did in Kikuyu nation is twofold:

One, hatred of Raila in the region. Not all, but a large segment of the Kikuyu community can’t stand the notion of Raila becoming president. These poor folks have been so programmed all their lives it is virtually impossible to cure them of this disease but, thankfully, more and more of the community is now starting to warm up to the notion of Raila being president because of no less an effort by Uhuru and his men and women to reverse cause and say this is the right thing to do.

Two, Ruto engaged in a stealth campaign for years to woo politicians from the region to support him. Support for Ruto in Kikuyuland is as firm as a house built on sand. Yes, the money Ruto has spent in the region has endeared him to many, but the support is as artificial as any can be. Once BBI is implemented and the campaigns roll around, nearly all that support will evaporate and all but the hardcore haters of Uhuru because he now loves Raila as his brother will not back his preferred successor. Keep in mind, it will be the first time the Kikuyu vote will be split but Raila or anyone Uhuru backs other than Ruto need not have the near unanimous vote from the region, only enough to provide the requisite margin of 50%+1.

  1. CLOSE TO CHURCH

Ruto is an evangelical Christian. It makes strategic sense that he has focused his philanthropy on raising funds for churches. Delegations of church leaders’ troop to his Karen and Sugoi homes nearly every day. Kenya is a majority Christian nation and the Church has massive political influence.

There are two types of Christians: those who exploit Christianity to enrich themselves and those who genuinely advance Christianity in the true meaning and spirit of the faith. The former are no different from your ordinary crooked politician busy stealing from the public till; in fact, these types of fake Christians will gladly welcome such stolen loot as good for “spreading the word of God” when in reality the loot is good for them and their lifestyles.

The latter Christians (those who truly live up to the faith’s calling) can only be neutral and guide their congregants as the spirit leads them, not because of having been bribed to do so.

Given this dynamic, I wouldn’t put much stock that Ruto is an Evangelical, much like I would put any stock in 2020 that Evangelicals still support Trump in America; if you’re in a sinking boat, nothing will stop you from sinking the only thing you must do is get your life-vest on and hope to be rescued by someone—in this case that someone is the next government.

  1. HE STARTED EARLY

Ruto has been a 2022 presidential candidate for the last seven years. He backed Uhuru to inherit Central votes.

This is also his undoing; had Ruto lied low and waiting for a more opportune time to strike, he would not have alienated and alarmed many in the system as he has to have them draw and aim their weapons at him to politically finish him as they have. So, this is a net minus than it is any gain.

Other politicians have declared their intention to run but many of them – Kalonzo, Mudavadi, Mwangi wa Iria – pose no serious challenge.

True.

Raila, whom Uhuru is expected to back following the handshake, has not declared he will run. That makes Ruto the frontrunner in the coming election even going by current opinion polls.

True but only to an extent. Raila has not declared but you can take it to the bank barring something catastrophic, Raila will be on the ballot for 2022. That being the case, if Uhuru backs him as he is expected to, it will be all but a foregone conclusion he will be our next president—regardless of how Ruto performs or even whether he vies at all.

  1. JUBILEE IS DEAD

Whoever Uhuru will support would likely split Jubilee even further. The expected coalition between the ruling party and ODM (and possibly other parties) will take time to cobble together. By the time their compromise candidate will hit the ground, Ruto would already be miles ahead.

As I and others have repeatedly said and repeat here, most gains Ruto made in Mt. Kenya region have been erased already and, going forward, the powers that be will make sure the man from Sugoi has no room to breathe, let alone mount a serious presidential campaign.

Put another way, the system’s preferred candidate will be our next president.

Ruto was the beneficiary of that system, he knows how sweet it is to be sworn against all odds and having not won at the polls as was the case for him and Uhuru, now let him be prepared to suffer the same medicine as prescribed by the very same system.

  1. INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE 

Unlike his mostly lackluster competitors, and despite being isolated by Uhuru, Ruto is the second highest-placed insider in the current government.

False, I assume you are not including Raila as a “lackluster competitor” but, given the man will vie barring something catastrophic, the man (Raila) is the second highest placed insider in the current government, not Ruto.

Conversely, were Raila not to vie, then whoever he and Uhuru back (and they will under that scenario) will have all the benefits of incumbency and Ruto will have none, not even being in government altogether.

He enjoys the trappings of power and the privileges of incumbency.

Not anymore.

Ruto is for all practical purposes and intent merely an occupant of an office in title but nothing else.

Having an office with no power and scant budget to do anything is not exactly having the power and privileges of incumbency.

He knows how the system works and will likely use that knowledge to great political advantage.

Partially true.

As one who knows how the system works, he will be the first one to tell you it’s virtually impossible to beat it no matter who you are but he’s putting on a brave face knowing he will soon or later succumb to it.

In other words, Ruto knows once the system has rejected his prospect to become our next president, that will be the case and, more importantly, if he tries to show he has the proverbial bigger balls than anyone who has tried and failed before him, the system has other arrows in the quiver to render his candidacy a non-starter to begin with.

Wiser counsel would be for Ruto to accept the fate, lie low and live to fight another day.

In 2027 or 2032, that is.

 

 

 

 
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Posted by on September 6, 2020 in Politics

 

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Ruto Cannot Make Up with Uhuru, But Can with Raila–Response to Online Column Comments

Ruto and Raila(3)

In response to my Star column this weekend Ruto Cannot Make Up With Uhuru, But Can with Raila, several comments have been made in various platforms the column appears but I have decided to post a detailed response here to one that appears in the Star itself for the benefit of those who may have the same mistaken beliefs or notions.

The comments are addressed to the individual who posted the comment so I am addressing my response to him or her (their identity is hidden):

You say, “At least you acknowledge he cannot win on his own.”

I did but I am sure not for the same reasons you have in mind. My position is it is possible the system can yet again thuggishly rig-out Raila or Ruto, something they cannot dare do if the two are working together—and that’s my point for the whole argument.

You seem to think Raila cannot win on his own at the ballot and that’s just not true for he can and will, were he to vie with or without Ruto’s backing.

You say, “Still, if the ‘system’ is so powerful, notwithstanding the false claim that it ‘loosened the noose on democracy’ in 2002, why did the same ‘system’ fail to assert and impose Kibaki’s disputed election victory in 2007

It is not false that the system loosened the noose on democracy in 2002; as I have told others in denial about this or simply not aware, the system considered 2002 as an inhouse dispute as to who should have the presidency so it did NOT matter to them diddly-squat who as to between Kibaki and Uhuru got the presidency; however, were Raila to be the opposition candidate, we would have had Uhuru as president in 2002, not when the system gave it to him in 2013.

That being said, I am also on record having said neither Uhuru nor Raila won the requisite 50%+1 in 2013 and had a re-run been ordered as it should have, Uhuru would have won clean against Raila. Uhuru came so close to Raila’s margins they decided to rig him in in Round I, rather than wait to win clean in Round II.

Those are facts and I know because I was there and knew exactly what happened or what was happening in both camps. For those who follow my blog, this is the election I had a meeting with now Jubilee Vice-Chairman David Murathe the Friday before that Monday’s election and what he told me has always shaped how I analyze Jubilee politics.

You say, “[the system failed] to impose Mudavadi, its preferred candidate, in 2012.”

No need to do a mademoni analysis here suffice to say the system did not fail in anything to do with Mudavadi, who they briefly toyed with having him vie instead of Uhuru but decided to stay with the latter.

Had they stayed with Mudavadi, Raila would have won a landslide bigger than 2007, making it impossible to rig him out for fear of ICC.

Again, they rigged him out against Uhuru because they were close enough.

You say, “the system failed] to assert and impose Uhuru’s August 2017 election which was nullified??

These are things I have written a dozen legal memorandum about shared privately with those shared with and will publish in my memoirs but, in a nutshell, the reason the system did not dare ignore the Supreme Court’s historic decision is something I and anyone who follows these things closely knows or should know.

Suffice to say there was no chance in hell they were going to take that risk and thus what we had as the outcome.

You say, “The FACTS simply don’t support your bogus ‘system’ argument.

I am sure you’ve seen by now there is nothing bogus about what I say regarding the system; if not, you’re in denial in which case I cannot help any further.

You say, “The ‘system’ can’t stand up to People power.

Oh yes they do and always have except in 2002, which I say they heeded to popular vote because the victor was someone they did not mind at all taking over from Moi. In 2007, 2013 and 2017, they give “people power” the middle finger and will do so again with glee in 2022, unless things unfold a certain way, including possibly the scenario I describe in the column.

You say, “…and the winner in 2022 will be the one with the largest coalition of tribal support, simple as that, as it has always been.”

You’re making my point; coalitions win and have won at least 3 times in recent times but only once (2002) did their candidate get sworn in as president.

The only coalition that will beat the system hands-down this time around is one of Raila backed by Ruto.

Raila backed by Uhuru can also win with a split of Gema vote but even in that scenario, the system can still rig in someone else who most certainly will be in the running if the two gentlemen vie separately, unless the system is united in backing Raila.

In the latter case, Raila is sworn as president regardless of what happens at the polls.

Ruto, of course, is out of the question and if he vies and Raila vies, the system’s candidate will be our next president—unless the vote is so overwhelming for one as to not to try and rig, which is doubtful as this will be a three-way race and murky enough for them to steal yet again.

For the avoidance of doubt, if Raila choses not to vie and joins Uhuru in backing someone else, that someone else will win in a landslide and the system cannot do anything wapende wasipende.

In this scenario, the candidate, of course, cannot be a Kikuyu and neither can he be from RV; who that will be is something I believe nobody knows at this time as each player is playing their Option A cards.

Note I am being specific in saying the compromise candidate cannot be a Kikuyu, leaving open the possibility it can be someone other than a Kikuyu from Mt Kenya region with Raila’s blessing.

Again, this is Option C for Raila and not an option for Ruto, unless the candidate is Raila, in which case he (Raila) won’t be a compromise but a practical candidate to serve the tripartite interests (Uhuru, the System–though reluctantly and Ruto).

Right now we are where all parties are playing their Option A cards, and each side is hiding their ace cards though Raila may put his on the table very soon and upend things yet again unless some people decide to play nice.

Uhuru is not in that equation and will be just fine how the cards are played out one way or another and if given a choice between backing Raila or Ruto, he will no question back Raila but we are not there yet.

That, my fellow Kenyans, is what is at stake even as I am typing this so expect a lot of movement of these Chess pieces for a winning strategy to emerge notwithstanding BBI, which everyone can use to their advantage.

 
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Posted by on July 12, 2020 in Politics, Uncategorized

 

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My Tweets on Goings On in Kenya Right Now Besides COVID-19 and Where We are Headed Politically

Ruto and Raila(3)

I tweeted a storm this morning expressing my wish and prayer for Raila and Ruto to bury the hatchet and join hands in delivering the final liberation in the country. I am posting these tweets here for those who have not seen them, and for convenience this being my own recordation of history as it pertains to our beloved Kenya.

1/30 After this purging in #Jubilee, we will still have Jubilee A (#Raila loving) & Jubilee B (Raila hating), question is, how will that affect 2022? Uhuru @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #Ruto2022

2/30 Unless Uhuru backs @RailaOdinga, there will be three serious contenders for the presidency in 2022: Raila, @WilliamsRuto and Kalonzo, and Kalonzo will be backed by Uhuru and the system in that scenario. @skmusyoka @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #Raila#Ruto2022

3/30 In a race involving @RailaOdinga, @WilliamsRuto and #Kalonzo, there will not be 50%+1 majority winner but race will be close enough to rigout everyone in favor of @skmusyoka just like 2013 when a run-off was thwarted by rigging @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

4/30 The outcome will be same even if either @RailaOdinga or @WilliamsRuto emerge victorious in votes cast as @skmusyoka would have caused enough bleeding of votes for either men nationwide to make him come close enough to be rigged in. @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

5/30 It is clear to me while Uhuru wants to back @RailaOdinga for 2022, there are many in the system who do not want that and their position is key in where this is headed. But they also do not want @WilliamsRuto.@skmusyoka @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

6/30 This is why Gideon and Kalonzo have been roped into Jubilee, or more specifically, Jubilee B (those in the party and in the system that do not want either @RailaOdinga or @WilliamsRuto to succeed Uhuru aka Raila and Ruto haters) @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

7/30 Ironically, there is a small but influential group Jubilee C that does not want #Uhuru to remain in office beyond 2022. The group wants both @RailaOdinga and Uhuru to retire in 2022, but they also do not want #Ruto. @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

8/30 The system is undeterred in making sure its preference is who is sworn as our next president to succeed regardless of what happens at the polls Uhuru @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

9/30 Any presidency made possible by the system running interference as they always have will leave bitterness in many and would as usual result in violence, destruction of property and deaths. @RailaOdinga @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

10/30 Given the system is willing to yet again shove down our throats a candidate they prefer other than winner at the ballot, it would behoove @RailaOdinga and #Ruto to bury the hatchet & work hand and glove to defeat them @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

11/30 Do not think they will not do that, namely, thuggishly rig again; they can and would even do so with glee because they are not afraid of you. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

12/30 They are unafraid of you because they know most of you are keyboard warriors who will never join hoi polloi in the streets eating teargas and being killed. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

13/30 The system is, however, afraid of Raila—or at least the man gives them pause, and to a lesser extent, Ruto, who is proving to be a handful to contain, even as they are trying to finish him. @RailaOdinga @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

14/30 That is why #Raila and #Ruto combining forces yet again will present a juggernaut force bigger and more formidable than the system itself; bigger, and more formidable than what we had in 2002 and what Cord had in 2007 @RailaOdinga @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

15/30 In other words, were the two men to join forces, we shall have intensity of 2002 combined with the “you had your chance but blew it” attitude of 2007 that saw Kibaki sent home but was retained by the system. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

16/30 Just as it was impossible for the system to rig in Uhuru back in 2002, it will be twice as impossible for them to do so in a #RailaRuto victory at the polls this time around compared to 2007. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

17/30 They can only succeed if Raila and Ruto are vying separately in which case the system would have no problem rigging either one of them, which would be comical as that would only have to be Raila, if he does not garner 50%+1 in the first round. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

18/30 This is because we know the system does not want Ruto, at all, but if they must choose between Raila and Ruto, they will prefer Raila. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @edwinsifuna @HonOscarSudi @OliverMathenge #RailaRuto2020

19/30 Again, only problem is there is Jubilee C that does not want either men neither do they want Uhuru to remain in office beyond 2022, notwithstanding yet others in the system that prefers he does. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

20/30 The solution to all this that leaves the country ahead, not stuck in the past with forced leadership at the top, anger and worse is for #Raila and #Ruto to bury the hatchet and join hands in defeating the system. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

21/30 Nothing stops @RailaOdinga and @WilliamsRuto from joining hands other than pride, and that is never, ever a good thing to deny yourself and others the benefit of burying the hatchet and reaping the fruits for the sake of good for all. @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

22/30 For #Ruto, it may be wanting to get to State House in a hurry that prevents him to join hands with @RailaOdinga; but that, too, is shortsighted given the larger good that can be derived taking everything into consideration. @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

23/30 @RailaOdinga has waited for more than 40 years to be sworn as president (he has won at least once), #Ruto can wait a mere 7 years, knowing #Raila will serve one term as he has always said he would. @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

24/30 Let the duo vie together in 2022 and even though it won’t be Cord again, the dynamics are there to make the team even greater and more unbwogable than Cord was in 2007. @RailaOdinga @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

25/30 This is only scenario that heals and unites the nation, while dismantling the entrenched system that has more say than your vote at the ballot, like it or not—until the system is crippled or dismantled. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

26/30 #BBI is designed to do this, but don’t count on it b/c, if @RailaOdinga, #Ruto Kalonzo vie, the system will rig Kalonzo in with mtadu attitude and there’s nothing mtado beyond being teargassed and killed of which there will be less clamor for that in 2022. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

27/30 Yes, we need #BBI and it shall come to pass as the new law of the land, but at the rate the country is divided we’ll need more to have its ideals realized. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

28/30 Let Ruto decamp from Jubilee to United Green Party (UGP), join forces to pass BBI and thereafter form an alliance with Raila to defeat the system come 2022 as they will enjoy a tsunami of support as did Kibaki in 2002 and more than they enjoyed in 2007. #RailaRuto2022

29/30 So, brothers and sisters, let us all push for this and let’s make it happen; we can do it! @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

30/30 This is my prayer. #Uhuru @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @edwinsifuna @OscarSudi @OliverMathenge #RailaRuto2022

 
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Posted by on June 18, 2020 in Politics

 

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Why Uhuru Need a Third Term: An Update

Uhuru(2)

My column this weekend in the Star is published as Why Uhuru Needs a Third Term in Office. For reasons I provide below, I am posting an update to make it an either proposition, meaning, either giving Uhuru an additional one term, or simply extending his current term in office.

Not surprisingly, this column has generated a lot of interest and comments in social media as well as in the Star portal itself. I have not read all of them but have scanned and see the comments are mostly against the idea.

However, many are also missing the point as to why we must have this discussion to begin with. I have replied to some, and in others I have indicated I’ll post an update to provide more context and specifically address why this discussion must be had.

First question I should answer that I am sure is in many people’s mind, is why did I pen this column? Is it because I have been given instructions by the “system” or Uhuru himself as I have seen some people comment? Is it because I have been so instructed by Raila whom I “worship” as other have commented? Or is it sycophancy seeking favors from Uhuru as yet others have suggested?

The answer is, NO!

None of that.

The simple answer is I have done this based on what I know or can surmise from what I know in order to have a discussion we must have about this. As a Facebook friend put it, “[m]y brother Samuel N. Omwenga penned this piece not because he is Uhuru’s sycophant but to elicit debate based on the probabilities in any political arena.”—Josephat Lister Nyaringo.

To this I responded,

Precisely brother and thanks; key here is having the discourse to flesh out what is really at stake so no one is surprised. The discourse provides opportunity for people’s views to be incorporated in a solution that must also be had in tackling what is at the core of all of this: Expanding democracy and inclusiveness in a manner that is not threatening to the system that controls it all and keeps us endlessly stuck in the same vicious, violent circle of elections if their attitude is to rebuff our efforts. More on this as we continue the discourse.

Here is what I know and that is, what we call the system is not quite ready to give up power or give it to Raila or Ruto.

I also know something else that does not belong in the public domain that informs or at least gives more credence to that view. Those who know, know.

That is what I know.

Here is what we all know: President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga saw it fit to have a handshake for purposes of healing the country’s wounds and bringing us together.

At the core of their handshake deal, is constitutional and institutional reform to ensure a governance system that is more inclusive and less tribalistic while ensuring more even exploitation and sharing of the national cake.

Included in the latter objective is elimination or seriously curtailing cartels and corruption (follow the Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru on what that entails).

Before COVID-19 threw breaks on to put us where we are with everything, BBI was on high gear as Raila led in efforts to popularize it and bring it to fruitful near end where Uhuru was expected to join and bring it across the finish line with full implementation of its core propositions.

That implementation is yet to happen—and from everything we know, it shall be the case BBI shall be implemented as envisioned by both Uhuru and Raila, with the backing and support of all those behind them.

There are three methods or avenues by which the BBI proposals can be implemented:

A. By Parliamentary Action. All proposals that do not implicate the Constitution, meaning, not requiring amendment of the constitution will be approved via normal parliamentary procedures and become law as any other ordinary bill becomes law.

B. By Executive Action. All proposals that do not require constitutional amendment or parliamentary action will be implemented via Executive action as ordinary and normal Executive Orders.

C. Constitutional Amendment. Any proposal that requires constitutional amendment must go through the constitution amendment process.

Based on what I know, we are headed to another constitutional amendment process question is, how?

There are only two options to amend the Kenya Constitution, which are found in Chapter Sixteen: via parliamentary initiative that requires 2/3 majority vote approval upon public participation and deliberation in Parliament or via popular initiative popularly referred to as a referendum.

Previously, it was completely out of question to initiate amending the constitution for BBI purposes through parliament because it was believed Ruto had the numbers to thwart or kill the efforts in parliament.

However, with the recent successful purging of Ruto loyalists from both houses of the legislature, it is plausible now Uhuru and Raila alongside the coalition Uhuru is forming to push his agenda through can get this done—or at least start the process through.

Of course, they can drop the idea anytime and go the referendum route, which is a sure in, given the tools available to both men to make that happen.

Regardless of which route the men take us to implement BBI, one thing is clear and that is, thanks but no thanks to COVID-19 and the uncertainty as to what its full effects would be when it’s finally contained, it will be highly unlikely there will be time left between that and currently scheduled election time for Uhuru to complete or even come close to completing his agenda.

Besides the Big Four agenda whose implementation everyone knows is Uhuru’s priority, what is even a higher priority for him, believe it or not, is making sure BBI is fully implemented.

Uhuru is not alone in this vision; rather, he has the backing and support of a number of key “system” members and drivers who are also tired of power rotation between the Kikuyu and Kale communities and want more inclusivity and an end to this circle of rigged or disputed elections that lead to destruction of property, violence and deaths every five years.

Again, there is another dimension to this that does not belong in the public domain so let me just say knowledge of it makes it even more imperative the solution suggested here.

Given this dynamic, and the reason I have penned this article, we must start thinking and looking for a solution whereby Uhuru and Raila usher in the much needed constitutional changes to implement BBI and, more importantly, remain the driving forces to see full implementation of the desired changes.

All this requires time and resources of which there is not enough between now and August 2022 when the next elections are scheduled to be held.

Although the initial headline for this column said to give Uhuru a third term, that proposition is anathema to a vast majority of people for various reasons, and regardless of any merits for adding the term.

The primary opposition to giving Uhuru a third term is centered on—and rightly so, I must add, that adding another term to expired to terms will be akin to going back life for president times, which we all reject.

However, it is also a fact we would need at least another four years from now, assuming COVID-19 goes away this year, for all these things that needs to be done to be done.

That puts us at having elections in 2024, which means that requires amending the constitution to give Uhuru two more years beyond his current term.

I can hear those of you saying why can’t all these be done in the two years left of Uhuru’s second term, and the complete answer, unfortunately, I cannot give because it would require disclosure of that which I have said does not belong in the public domain and therefore must not be disclosed.

In the time between now and then, meaning between now and the end of the president’s extended period (not added term), the president and parliament with approval of the courts can and must put in place a government of national unity (GNI) whose objective is to (a) make sure BBI proposals become law and (b) the country is fully prepared to make a transition to an expanded and more inclusive democracy by the next election to be held at the end of Uhuru’s extended time.

How the GNI is put in place and consistent with BBI implementation via constitutional amendment is beyond the scope of this article suffice to say there is a way and an easy one for that matter.

Ditto what happens to Parliament as the Constitution requires that parliamentary elections also be held during the presidential election.

That can be dealt with but the focus here is what to do with the presidency.

In this scenario, Uhuru will have two years balance of his presidency, plus another two years which should be couched as “transitional” where GNU will remain intact through the end of that extended time.

Elections will then be held at the conclusion of that extended time and Kenya shall be on a new path devoid of all these ills, electoral violence and deaths we have suffered for decades because of bad politics.

Put another way, this solution of extended Uhuru presidency will provide a win, win, win resolution of this complex issue we are trying to resolve, and is at the core of all of this and that is: tribalism based governance system where power is wielded and exercised by only two tribes at the expense of all others.

Again, I am leaving out a critical element of this that does not belong in the public domain, but I have shared privately with those who need to know and are in a position to influence the outcome of this for them to incorporate it into their own thinking.

Well, there you have it; I hope the case is clearer but leave a comment or question below but, more importantly, please continue the discussion in your own circles for the good of the country.

 
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Posted by on June 12, 2020 in Politics

 

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Elections Should Be Held in 2021, Not 2022

IEBC(2)

Our next elections in Kenya should be in August 2021, not August 2022, if the Constitution is to be interpreted correctly.

Pls take interest, follow and support this case challenging the prevailing belief that our next elections in Kenya should be in 2022. I’ll provide updates for those who are not able to closely follow.

Constitutional law arguments aside, it is imperative that we hold our next elections as soon as possible to avoid a more prolonged period of campaign mode to succeed #Uhuru that we are already in.

It was bad enough succession politics had paralyzed things before #COVID-19 but resumption of paralysis owing to succession politics for another 2 years will make recovery from the pandemic difficult, if not impossible.

If elections are held next year, then there will be a one-two punch: implement #BBI and go into elections in less than 1 year–that will go a long way to help in the recovery from #Corona while setting us on a path to political rejuvination as well. #KenyaElections2021 #BuildingBridges, #BBI #Jubilee,

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Posted by on June 8, 2020 in Politics

 

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The Wailing of A Kikuyu Voter

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This piece is not for the lackadaisical reader but is worth the read so, take time and read it through as it’s an analysis I have decided to do from an article I disclose below and I believe strongly the message needs to beard by all who care about our beloved country; heck, even if you don’t care, just read it and you’ll be glad you did. If not, well, it’s corona time so likely not much else to do with all the available time:-)

Excerpt:

In the lead-up to the 2017 presidential elections, Njuguna and I had had many heated discussions on who Kenyans should elect as president. That time he told me, “Uhuru ni gaitu ga guicirira…mukuigwa uguo…” (Uhuru is ours by birth and blood…you can lump it if you don’t like it).

Iguthua ndogoria, itikinyagira nyeki,” said my friend, a matatu driver to me. Translated metaphorically, it means a limping shepherd leads his flock astray. Literally it means, a leader who lacks foresight cannot lead his people to greener pastures. Essentially, he becomes a burden to his people.

My matatu driver friend said that in some parts of Kiambu County, where he grew up and still lives, he knows of families that have been rendered jobless. Even with their meagre incomes, at least they could afford to buy food. “Now that meagre pay is not forthcoming. How do you expect these people to survive? Still, the president talks of ‘my fellow Kenyans’. No muhaka ticiria uhoro wa muturire witu wa hau kabere.” We must seriously think of how lives will be in the future.

“For me, I already have”, said the driver. “I’ve thought long and hard and I’ve come to the conclusion that I’ll never again participate in electoral politics. What’s the point? Uhuru and his band of politicians can spend millions of shillings cheating our mothers with branded lesos [kitenge-like wrapping cloth, popular with women], caps and T-Shirts, yet he cannot find money to buy the same women masks.

“The Kenyatta family runs the biggest milk production company in this part of the world, but it cannot, even for one day, say it will subsidise the price of milk so that poor people can afford it. That is the same milk they get from those poor farmers in Mt Kenya region.”

“But look what happened? Kikuyus hitched their wagon on a fading horse, a wild horse that didn’t, in the first place, know where it was headed and how it was heading wherever it was heading. Yet we Kikuyus couldn’t stop to ask these important questions because we were consumed by ethnic jingoism. We were all in a tribally induced trance…now we’re all paying for it. I’ve thought about these things: cooked up presidential elections, tribal voting, about Uhuru, politicians, why people are suffering, and now coronavirus and I can tell you we’re living in apocalyptic times.”

“The Kikuyu people are bewitched,” mused Njuguna. “How do you explain the fact that one family has been able to control the thinking of an entire group for so long?” I asked him whether he had been bewitched during the 2013 and 2017 elections. He said yes. “How else can I explain my total conviction in Uhuru’s presidency without wanting to brook any contrary opinion? My sister being stuck in China is the last straw that broke the camel’s back. We are through with Uhuru…”

If there is one thing coronavirus ought to teach us, said my friend, is that we Kenyans need to think long and hard about the future of the country: “What do we want for ourselves? What kind of leaders do we desire? How do we right the political wrongs we’ve made? Talking specifically to my fellow Kikuyus: How do we unchain ourselves from the Kenyatta family servitude? This will be critical if the Kikuyu people in the coming years hope to be part of the struggle to liberate the country from the shackles of predatory politics.”

These are the words of a Kikuyu voter identified only by the name Njuguna in an article appearing in the Elephant and titled …Is the Love Between Uhuru and the Kikuyus Over?

I have read many articles, watched news, listened to talking heads on TV shows in Kenya and know since the handshake, there has been a drumbeat of anti-Uhuru rhetoric, which started right after the handshake with Raila and the criticism started off as expressions of confusion regarding the handshake—and understandably so as no one expected the handshake to mild criticism and in no time, the unleashing of whining and complaining that morphed into outright insults and even daring of Uhuru to silence those leading in these unprecedented attacks on a president of Kenya.

In this one piece, Dauti Kahura, its author has captured nearly all of the collective case made against Uhuru and Jubilee.

It is also the reason I have extensively quoted the article more than I would usually do in any of my blogs or writings.

I have captioned the heading as wailing of a Kikuyu voter, but I may as well captioned it as the confessions of a Kikuyu voter.

This is because what this Kikuyu voter has said in behalf of all Kikuyus is something many of us non-Kikuyus have known for decades and said as much but all to deaf ears and this can be summed up as follows:

First, tribalism is the disease that is eating out our core.
Second, even though voting is always along tribal lines, Kikuyus alone cannot win the presidency in Kenya as that is an impossibility constitutionally but, even with some gobbled up coalition to rope in another big tribe like the Kalenjin as was the case in 2013, they still cannot win the presidency without the help of vifaranga vya komputa.

Third, even as Kikuyus have voted for their own for president to the man and woman (give or take about 10% who voted for Raila at all relevant elections), most of them have never benefitted from having so voted as only the rich among them benefit, alongside those have connections with them and in some negligent numbers relative to the total population, some hoi polloi who may get some trickle down benefits such as their kith and kin through nepotistic employment.

Fourth, even with full knowledge of the fact they NEVER benefit from having gaitu ga guicirira (birth and blood), the Kikuyus, lured by lofty speeches at rallies, campaign paraphernalia and a reminder of their “superior” status as “nyumba kubwa” (the entitled ones), once again turn up in large numbers to vote for their “own” only to repeat the same circle of continuing to live in the same miserable conditions to no end.

Fifth, it took the government’s inability to bring home a relative stuck in Wahun, China for this Kikuyu voter to say enough is enough. “My sister being stuck in China is the last straw that broke the camel’s back,” he said. Well, a most voters who voted in October 2017 had reached the same conclusion and voted for change that never saw the light of day. Ditto in 2013. It took this Kikuyu voter’s sister being stuck in China to feel the pain all these other voters have felt all these years.

Now that this Kikuyu voter, and all those from the region have seen the light, what next?
Obviously hating Uhuru and calling him names is not it.

However, recognizing all these failures and shortcomings the country has lived with through all these decades, it is time to find solutions, not more whining and complaining about it.

We start by an admission as this Kikuyu voter has that most of you have been brainwashed to believe in tribalism, which is a myopic and backward belief that only serves the interests of those who whip you into buying the crap.

We start by finding common ground as a nation, regardless of tribe in finding a formula that works for us to pull through not just this pandemic, but in all future social, political and, economic challenges.

We start by fixing the government so that voter say counts in an election.

We start by de-coupling tribe from government so that being in government is not determined or decided by what tribe you belong.

We start by making sure those in government are held accountable to what they do or do not do.

We start by demanding and having elected leaders who are not in office to line their pockets at the expense of those they are supposed to represent.

We start by demanding that parts of our constitution such as Chapter 6 on integrity are not just empty words.

We start by accepting the reality you cannot do the same things over and over but expect a different result.

These things can all be done at the same time, starting with implementation of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI).

Only then we can have a Kenya we can ALL be proud of and, more importantly, a Kenya that works for ALL of us, not just for the few who continually empty our coffers for their selfish benefit and enjoyment at the expense of everyone else they live with nothing to even survive on.

May God bless our country and open our eyes and hearts to see this is what is at stake.

 
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Posted by on June 4, 2020 in Politics

 

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Duale Survives, But No Work To Do

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Majority Leader in the National Assembly Aden Duale survived the purge being undertaken by President Uhuru Kenyatta in the ongoing Jubilee party leadership changes. I earlier said the following about Duale’s surviving and put it like this:

I have been saying for a long time the only person who would have saved Duale’s job as majority leader is David Murathe as Uhuru did not care either way if Duale remained.

I subsequently changed my mind and said it was a toss up between Murathe and one other significant person who wanted Duale gone. As it was reported in the media, it was Uhuru to decide which of the two men will have their way.

It turns out Uhuru sided with Murathe to keep Duale in the leadership position therefore Duale now must do as Murathe (read: the system) tells him to do and will only be happy to do so. Uhuru will just sit and watch but, as always, he reaps and enjoys the fruits of the system’s labors with no sweat.

This is also why it was easy for Uhuru to lean in Murathe’s direction because Duale has never once insulted or disrespected him and neither has he failed to push through the president’s agenda as told.

In other words, he keeps his job in part because he has been clever in not offending the hands the fed him.

In other words, he keeps his job in part because he has been clever in not offending the hands the fed him.

Here’s what I said in sharing this story on Twitter:

Duale’s job was saved because (1) unlike others, he never insulted or disrespected #Uhuru (2) he did as told by Uhuru in carrying out his agenda in Parliament even as he was nibbling from #Ruto and (3) because he had #Murathe on his side.

I also said because of Duale’s dalliance with Ruto, he is no longer trusted by many in Uhuru’s camp, though he continues to enjoy the friendship and support of Murathe, who as I said was instrumental in saving him.

However, given the complications raised with this dalliance with Ruto, I posited that Duale keeps his job but he’ll be told what to do and must deliver without wavering lest the axe still comes down on him.

What is emerging now is Uhuru and those advising him have a better plan and that is, to yank all agenda management responsibilities from Duale as Majority Leader and give those to someone more trusted in a new position to be created to manage the affairs of the coalition in formation.

Indeed, it is believed the Secretariat for the new coalition is already in place so this will be a liaison position held by an MP Uhuru and the coalition trusts to move their collective agenda.

That being the case, Duale will have the title but no work to do than more than any ordinary MP does, if at all; not even as chairman of a committee.

This is brilliant as its akin to killing two birds with one stone: keep Duale supporters happy, including family and constituents while making sure he has zero opportunity to undermine or frustrate Uhuru and coalition agenda.

The icing on the cake is he’ll be completely powerless and incapable of helping Ruto as they most certainly plotted previously.

Which begs the question, why would Ruto fight so hard to keep Duale in this powerful position if he cannot help him?

The answer is simple: Ruto is in the dark about the impending coalition arrangement and, in particular, these plans to neuter the position of majority leader to render it powerless, much like the DP’s own office has been reduced to an as needed assistant to the president, not the lofty nearly co-president responsibilities and autonomy he previously enjoyed.

That’s Kenya for you but I must admit I am liking it only to the extent we fix the system to allow these three things that are crucial for all of us progressives:

  1. Ending rotation of the presidency between two tribes
  2. Ending violence, destruction of property and deaths that follow each general election circle that are always disputed since independence save for once in 2002.
  3. Ensuring inclusivity and putting an end to nepotism and tribalism in government hiring and tendering usually favoring those from the tribes that have swapped the presidency to near exclusion of all others.

This is the primary reason I and others oppose the presidency of Ruto in 2022 for we must break this rotation of the presidency between two tribes.

I will have no issue and would even support him if he vied in 2027, and God willing unless the president who succeeds Uhuru does such a fantastic job such that it would be imprudent not to support him or her for re-election.

In other words, nothing personal here; Ruto is a good man who simply finds himself at the wrong place and at the wrong time, never mind that he hustled to get here as he often claims–but propelled by the system is more like it.

That very system has now rejected him for their own reasons, those of us who want to see the breaking of this rotation of the presidency are simply beneficiaries of the rejection and that is alright as country is larger than an individual.

 

 
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Posted by on June 3, 2020 in Politics

 

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Uhuru’s Break-up with Ruto Is Irreversible

Uhuru and Ruto(1)

In politics, optics are as important as substance so anyone is free to interpret optics as they fancy it’s a question of how most people see it.

President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto showed up at today’s Madaraka Day celebrations donning matching or nearly matching suits, shoes, red ties and masks which had some Kenyans excited, especially on social media wondering if the two have reconciled and returned to their earlier days bromance where they were also wearing matching shirts and ties to project their joined at the hip brotherly love.

An interesting question to ask nonetheless is whether the donning of this matching attire was meant to be a statement or coincidental? That’s something none of us can tell or know for sure, but given nothing is coincidental in politics, at least not of this level of detail, one can assume there was some coordination to convey a message, leaving the further question, what message?

If history is anything to go by, wiser counsel is to not assume much from this because, two politicians laughing and high fiving each other today does not mean they will do so tomorrow if their interests diverge.

Indeed, even forgetting about history for a moment and just look at what has happened to Ruto in the past few weeks, the political whupping he has received and the damage is irreversible at this point.

Right now and to the foreseeable future, there’s nothing Ruto can do to reverse course on which his political demise is on for at least 2022 politics.

It is said anything is possible in politics but that’s an overstatement as the requisite conditions and circumstances must be right for that to be the case.

While Ruto can throw in the towel in as far as succeeding Uhuru goes, and seek whatever crumps the system may throw his way come 2022, fact is the man from Sugoi is politically finished and his ambition for 2022 came crashing when all his backers in the Senate abandoned and did not even bother to put up a fight against the purge that took place there.

Others have wobbled and shown signs or even outright told friends they will not be there for Ruto if the choice came to between backing him or doing as Uhuru wishes.

Indeed, according to one number cruncher I know who is privy to an analysis that has been done as to who is likely to vote for who and why on the question of impeaching Ruto, if a motion to that effect is brought in the national assembly, and if the ongoing Jubilee negotiations with national leaders for a grand coalition holds, Uhuru is short between 8 and 15 votes of the 233 needed to impeach Ruto, if he opts to go this route.

That’s a number that Uhuru can whip and have their votes within minutes.

According to the same source, the votes are there to remove Ruto in the Senate–and by a large margin.

Wachana na impeachment kwa sasa; that’s the mother of all battles but there is smaller though significant battle to be fought and won and that is continued purging of Ruto loyalists this time at the National Assembly where efforts to save Duale appear to have failed and now he’s facing the chop.

I said the other day only Murathe can save Duale from being axed but I have changed my mind and now say Murathe has punted because someone else wants Duale out more than Murathe wants him in.

My new thinking is partially informed by recent reporting that it is now up-to Uhuru who really doesn’t care one way or another to decide whether Duale stays as majority leader or is out.

The irony of ironies as I see it is this:

If Ruto is spared the humiliation of removal from office by impeachment (which I advised against in my weekend oped) to politically live to fight another day for the presidency (2027 or 2032), then he must agree to (a) the purging that is next to take place at the National Assembly, including removal of Duale as majority leader and (b) not to whine at all about several CSs deemed loyal to him that will soon be shown the exit door to make room for the new government of national unity in formation.

In my belief, what you saw today is quintessentially a part of that amicable divorce if Ruto can live up-to his end of this lowly bargain that leaves him an empty suit wandering around the walls of power with absolutely nothing to do but pass time.

Interestingly, and relevant for this matching attire excitement, Ruto’s problems lie not with Uhuru, but the very system that put them together in the first place, and later in office without the votes required under the constitution.

That system calls the shots, not Uhuru.

Unfortunately for Ruto, his calculations and schemes at the expense of Uhuru has alienated him from the man such that even he has come around to let the system have its way without him trying to stop them or make it harder.

I have personally met and chatted with Uhuru twice and the last time was at a prominent Kenyan politician’s home just after passage of the 2010 constitution. On both occasions, I was very impressed how articulate and charming the man was and not for a moment did I think I was talking to this person the media depicted as a clueless someone born with a silver spoon in his mouth.

That man, I surmised then, and remain so convinced today, is shrewd, intelligent, knows what he is doing and underrate him at your own peril.

Ruto underrated him at his peril and that peril is the music he is facing right now, with more to come down the road.

I also know the man rewards loyalty like no other; meaning, had Ruto remained loyal through and through to him without undercutting and remaining quiet as his foot soldiers insulted and disrespected him, Ruto would been in exactly the same situation Raila was with Kibaki through elections: someone his coalition partner and the system did not want to see the inside of State House as president but waited to election day to say so loudly and clearly.

In other words, yes, had Ruto remained loyal to Uhuru, he would have gone to 2022 as a leading presidential candidate to succeed Uhuru and even probably carried the day in votes but only to be rigged out by the system because they just cannot have the man in office as president.

For many, many reasons not the least of which is their fear he will finish them, especially those who have let it known from the very beginning he sits where he sits as a matter of convenience for them, not some self-made hustler prowess he does not tire to project though rendered useless by recent events with more to come.

So, my take is there is no bromance here it is likely Uhuru has given Ruto a nice send-off from State House as the man may not even be there as DP come next Madaraka Day, or even Jamhuri Day unless he lives through the pain of political austerity measures Uhuru and the system have tailor made for him.

UPDATE

Since posting this blog, Uhuru had a Jubilee PG meeting and Duale’s job was saved. Here is what I posted elsewhere as an update:

I have been saying for a long time the only person who would have saved Duale’s job as majority leader is David #Murathe as #Uhuru did not care either way if #Duale remained. I changed my mind and said it was now a toss up between Murathe and one other significant person who wanted Duale gone. As it was reported in the media, it was Uhuru to decide which of the two men will have their way.

It turns out Murathe has and now Duale must do as Murathe (read: the system) tells him to do and will only be happy to do so. This is also why it was easy for Uhuru to lean in Murathe’s direction because Duale has never once insulted or disrespected him and neither has he failed to push through the president’s agenda as told. In other words, he keeps his job in part because he has been clever in not offending the hands the fed him.

 

 
 

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Impeaching Deputy President William Ruto

Ruto(3)This is no longer noise in some opposition circles but every indication now is we are headed to a showdown in Parliament to test if Ruto has the votes to block or defeat his impeachment.

The first salvo is fired by bringing up a motion in the National Assembly supported by one-third of all members, or 116 MPs. A motion to impeach Ruto has been drafted and is currently supported by 106 members (see below).

It is curious the draft motion is circulating with only 106 members as one would think the movant would want to have the requisite one-third of the members before having it leaked for public consumption or support but I am sure they have their reasons, probably believing they only need 96 votes, which is theoretically possible but I doubt that’s the reason.

Be that as it may, impeachment showdown is looming and those baying for Ruto’s impeachment and removal can smell victory and thus this escalation in the efforts.

The motion, if brought up in the National Assembly will require two-thirds approval by all members to proceed to the Senate where the impeachment must be upheld by two-thirds majority there as well.

Not an easy task in both cases, to say the least, but it is also entirely possible, especially given recent developments that show Ruto does not have the numbers in supporters we thought he has in Parliament.

DP Impeach Motion(1)

DP Impeach Motion(2)

DP Impeach Motion(3)

DP Impeach Motion(4)

 

 
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Posted by on May 25, 2020 in Politics

 

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Insult and Disrespect Uhuru at Your Own Peril

Uhuru(3)

Every leader in any country, even one deemed to be the most feeble over time hardens and becomes shrewd to sustain themselves in power.

To insult, disrespect and belittle a president is moronic and has a price to pay for those who do so, especially anyone in a position of power linked to the leader.

This tweet by one Ken Odero is illustrative of this point:

“Jubilee Tangatanga wing assumes that Uhuru is a fool, and it’s Raila who is behind his latest purge. No. Uhuru became president with ICC hanging on his shoulders. Became president 2nd time with the worst record ever. That is not a fools fete. #UkweliUsemwe That man is ruthless!”

Uhuru was deemed to be a weak, disinterested president when vying for the presidency, and even long after he was sworn as president for the first time in 2013 but even as Ruto himself is now finding out, he and others greatly underestimated Uhuru; the man from Sugoi had no idea Uhuru can take the ax to him as he has.

Had he known, he would have played his cards differently.

And even then, he would still have had a rough time and serious obstacles to overcome to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta as all men in his position before him found out, except the late Moi who found a way to avoid all the pitfalls to succeed Uhuru’s father.

Ruto instead took advantage of what he deemed to be Uhuru’s weaknesses to chart ostensibly his own path to State House but this has backfired massively.

Indeed, Ruto’s actions and those of his foot soldiers in the frontlines delivering madharau have all along had a price tag to pay, and that time is now as they are rudely finding out.

Na mambo bado, as the popular expression goes, meaning, more of this purging or paying the price is to come.

It will therefore surprise no one that all but the most diehard loyalists in Rift Valley and some pockets of Central will soon troop back to Uhuru and seek forgiveness for straying or keeping mum when the insults were being hurled.

The sins will be forgiven unless unforgivable.

It is also the reason Ruto’s loyalists in Parliament cannot now save him from impeachment and removal as Deputy President.

Usicheze na serikali; learn to live to fight another day or, better yet, from the inside as Raila is currently doing–and no one has tried harder to beat the system but failed.

 

 
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Posted by on May 13, 2020 in Politics

 

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