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The Kibaki Succession Game; Unfolding Truths and Other Revelations Part IV

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When it became patently obvious to everyone, especially those minding ODM business that Mudavadi’s quest to challenge Raila for the ODM nomination in the false name of “internal democracy” was a sham, Raila and ODM quickly turned the tables on him.

According to reliable sources, the party determined that Raila had enough support throughout the country to withstand any challenge from Mudavadi, even taking into account the by then known fact that delegates were being bought and the more ominous fact that greater cataclysmic mischief would be visited on the party in the Mt. Kenya region during the nomination process.

If Mudavadi was early on being encouraged to challenge Raila because he was perceived to be a weakling who would not defeat Raila and even though the exercise was presumed to be good for the party in showing its transparency and openness, now the idea was to encourage Mudavadi to run but crash him in defeat while at the same time creating an opening to replace him as Raila’s running mate, having established the rationale for it himself, namely, no one should assume automatic nomination.

At about this time, I was given an opportunity by ODM Secretary General Anyang Nyong’o consented to by all to attend one of the ODM National Executive Committee meeting as a Diaspora observer on March 5, 2012.

All that that occurred at the meeting is confidential other than what the SG announced to the public therefore I cannot discuss but I came away with the impression Mudavadi was a man besieged with himself and totally uncertain as to what direction he was headed or even what he wanted.

Statements Mudavadi was making in public were inconsistent with what he was saying or did not say at the meeting and the mood there was from all sides that party unity was more important than aspirations of one individual be that Raila or Mudavadi and that partly explains why Mudavadi bolted because there was no love lost within the party that he was simply acting as a man on a mission to get rid of Raila at the instigation and direction from others with no interest at all for the welfare of the party.

Following that March 5, 2012 NEC meeting, it became readily apparent Mudavadi was badly losing his fake argument that Raila and ODM were “undemocratic” because basically everything he was demanding publicly, Raila and ODM were saying, “sure; we can do that!”

Where Mudavadi miscalculated and this really speaks to his weakness as a leader, is not knowing in politics saying one agrees to do anything doesn’t mean anything about when they will do it yet to demand that something that has already been promised be done today and not tomorrow and notwithstanding what procedures are in place to go about doing it makes one making such demands come across as now whining and insincere about their demands.

That’s exactly what Mudavadi did.

Having demanded that he must challenge Raila for the party nomination, Raila and ODM said, “sure, no problem; go for it!”

Yet, when it was brought to his attention that in order to do so the party constitution must be amended to delete or amend a provision that provides for automatic nomination of party leader as presidential flag bearer, Mudavadi demanded that this be done yesterday.

“Not so fast,” basically said ODM SG Anyang Nyong’o and other top ODM officials as they were filing party compliance documents with the Registrar’s office on April 9, 2012; “we don’t have time to legally amend our party constitution before the deadline to submit these documents, so chill, brother… the right time will come when we shall do the necessary amendments.”

Nothing wrong there.

Pure politics Mudavadi and his people could not have had a logical come-back without sounding whiny and insincere but they did anyway further exposing them as phonies.

From that point, Mudavadi’s quest, fake as it was, to challenge Raila quickly fizzled within ODM.

Because of the bungling in this fake bid to challenge Raila under the false name of “internal democracy,” the schemers were faced with a dilemma: to drop the idea altogether or salvage it with its concomitant risk of total failure.

Recall the original idea was to have Mudavadi knock out Raila as ODM flag-bearer to be followed by the schemers rallying behind their true choice for the presidency and annihilate Mudavadi and ODM at the polls.

However, upon further analysis and consideration, and especially given Mudavadi’s fumbling in his challenge of Raila for the ODM party nomination, the schemers quickly decided to get Mudavadi out of ODM and simply make him their preferred presidential candidate through and through.

Before making this decision, the pros and cons of Mudavadi vz two other individuals who were under serious consideration as the general election preferred candidate the Inner Sanctums were to throw their weight behind, after dumbing Mudavadi, who would have in this scenario earlier knocked off Raila, these pros and cons were not so carefully reviewed but it was concluded Mudavadi was, everything considered, the better bet.

I have not sourced this from anyone but my hunch tells me those in consideration to replace Mudavadi in the initial scenario where he was to be propped up only to be knocked down at the general election would have had to be the late Prof. Saitoti, Kalonzo Musyoka and one other person who I believe still remains an alternate to Mudavadi should he, too, crash and burn as ABR (Anyone But Raila).

As disclosed at the end of this blog, the schemers are prepared to do whatever they deem it takes to hoist to the presidency by ballot or other means their preferred choice and it really doesn’t matter who that is so long as a near convincing case can be made that he is presidential material.

Do not expect anything akin to the Moi project where everyone but a segment one should really worry about knew Uhuru was neither presidential material nor anyone who could be shoved down their throats just like that.

This time around, the schemers must present someone like Mudavadi who weak and ineffective leader he may be, at least a case passing the laugh test can be made that he can be president; dancing to the tune of his masters but president nonetheless.

It is also important to recall “schemers” here refers to two distinct and even unrelated groups connected only in their quest to stop Raila from being reelected as president: the Inner Sanctums, representing the inner core of Kibaki’s confidants and clique and the Desperados, those right outside the inner ring but having with the Inner Sanctums the aforementioned common purpose and objective of “stopping” Raila from being reelected as president.

Mudavadi is the project of the Inner Sanctums with gleeful collaboration and help from none other than Moi himself.

Meanwhile, there is so much distrust and mistrust among the Desperados, their role in KSG is becoming less and less important to the point they may just fizzle and recoil either to Raila side or go with the Inner Sanctums where they are increasingly becoming less and less important.

In fact, contrary to what is being reported, it is becoming more and more clear the Inner Sanctums don’t really give a hoot about either Uhuru or Ruto as they see both of them as a liability to them.

In this reasoning, rallying behind someone with less baggage, relatively speaking, like MM is a sure bet for them to hoist to State House than either Uhuru, Ruto or whoever they either or both chose to rally behind other than Raila.

On the other hand, and contrary to what other analysts have been saying, it is not the case that Kibaki is playing his cards in favor of Uhuru presidency or anyone else for that matter because he believes only he or that person can spare him from being taken to the Hague, should evidence at trial warrant that, and given State House has already been implicated.

Let’s have two things clear about this and this anyone can take to the bank:

First, the ICC Chief Prosecutor has broad discretion as to who they bring charges against and nothing anyone can do if they make a determination it’s neither in the public interest nor national security to bring charges against a sitting or former president.

Second, it doesn’t matter who is elected the next president in Kenya they are not ever going to “give up” Kibaki for prosecution at the ICC or anywhere for that matter.

To be even more analytically blunt about this, none of the cases really belong at the Hague.

These cases could have been tried and people found guilty or not guilty under our Penal Code or under special law amending the Code and for those arguing justice could not be found in the rotten judicial system we have had for decades and now under reform, the Hague was not and is not necessarily the only answer, even though it’s too late now and it might as well be.

Mudavadi is favored by the Inner Sanctums for reasons that have to do with protecting certain interests, including many involved in all manner of corruption they are genuinely afraid Raila will go after them were he to be reelected as president—something that is consistent with his character of not encouraging or sanctioning corruption.

The Desperados, on the other hand, are obsessed with “stopping” Raila simply because of their unadulterated, pure lust for power for the sake of having it and even more so to deny Raila that privilege simply because they would rather have it.

Nothing more, nothing less.

To best understand this, think of a beautiful woman in the middle of a boxing ring with several men ogling her all of them ugly and unattractive to any woman except for one who is the opposite and only one can have this one woman.

If they have any brains at all, they had better find ways to push the attractive one off the stage and have him restrained there while they desperately try to make their case with the woman who must pick one among these worse choices she never dreamed of in her life.

If the attractive one is also a giant they cannot even collectively lift even one of his feet, and if he is capable of crashing them all to flatness on the floor, then he will be the one to take the trophy and she won’t complain for he was the most attractive one after all.

So is the case with the so-called G7.

None among them is attractive to Kenyans to win their majority support yet Raila dwarfs them individually and even collectively, they are not able to move him no matter what they try, yet, they each want the trophy, namely, the presidency.

Their own unchecked ambitions and deeply rooted beliefs in tribalism may in the end be their own undoing but worry not much about them.

What Kenyans must worry and concern themselves about is what the Inner Sanctums are prepared to do to make sure the sphere of influence in political power in Kenya still remains the Mt. Kenya region after the elections even though not necessarily having one of their own as the next president.

In a nutshell, this is what is driving KSG by the Inner Sanctums, namely, the preservation of power in the Mt. Kenya region.

They must find someone they can control from the get go to the last day that individual serves as president, if they succeed in having him elected or imposed upon us.

That person right now is Mudavadi.

Since the late Prof. Saitoti was quietly trying to mount his own more or less independent “reformed” campaign, and since no one other than those privy to the KSG scheme would have known what the schemers had in mind with Saitoti in connection with their scheme, the selection of Mudavadi as ABR had no public bearing on the late Prof. Saitoti’s presidential bid plans.

Musyoka, on the other hand, has clearly been sidelined already and Mudavadi has for all practical purposes and intent been elevated to VP and is de facto one for now much to the chagrin of Musyoka but no one would shed even crocodile tears for that one.

After the unprecedented introduction of Kibaki on the occasion of the 49th Madaraka Day celebration at Nyayo Stadium the other day, Mudavadi did not even wait for the president to speak but was driven out and flown VP style to a rally he was earlier scheduled to attend.

This was his inauguration as ABR.

Granted Musyoka and the PM were out of the country at the time Kibaki had Mudavadi introduce him at the Madaraka Day rally but, to highlight this shift of power from the hapless Musyoka to Mudavadi, Kibaki sent him a few days later to give a speech in his behalf at the Fifth World Accreditation Day held at KICC when Musyoka was said to be nearby literally at the same time.

There is nothing wrong with that as that is politics as usual.

What is wrong and what Kenyans must watch out for and reject, are the extent the schemers are willing to go to have their preferred choice hoisted to State House regardless of the people’s will as expressed in an open and transparent ballot.

According to reliable sources, the plan among the KSG schemers is to install Mudavadi or whoever succeeds him as ABR at any cost and literally so.

Part of this plan is to outright buy MPs allied to Raila and especially those from the ODM strongholds in the hopes of demoralizing and crashing ODM, including chief among that list Ababu Namwamba who my source tells me has already been offered KSHs200 million for the small act of “courage” to defect but has so far declined.

The KSHs 200 million is according to my source the price tag for “more principled and grounded MPs” and those less so the going rate is half of that amount and in between.

The price tag goes down to literally a few hundred bob for buying votes at the precinct and sub-location levels.

The schemers have put the overall price tag for their invidious scheme to retain control of the presidency at 9 billion, 900 million, with 6 billion of that already pledged by one individual who is key in KSG.

The rest is to come from—guess where?

The tax-payers.

Supporters who have for a long time been strategically placed in various ministries, starting from Treasury are under instructions to start stealing and piling in a fund to finance this scheme.

It is feared that the theft has long since started and is underway.

The rest of the money will come from a list of about 100 individuals who are each tasked to raise 100 million each.

Other plans include maximizing the use of tribalism and other divisive tactics to deny Raila the vote not to forget the good-old massive rigging.

In Part V, I will offer my views as to what all this means and what ODM and Kenyans of goodwill must all do to counter this very dangerous and yet again a brewing affront on our beloved country.

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Posted by on June 15, 2012 in Politics


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Mourning Victims of the Helicopter Crash in Kenya

I join the rest of those mourning the loss of both Prof. Saitoti and Hon. Ojode as well as the other passengers who perished in the chopper crash.

Let’s hope the government conducts a thorough and genuine investigation to determine what exactly happened if anything to assure Kenyans and the world this was nothing more than the accident we must initially assume it is.

One sure way to ensure this is, indeed, the case, is for the President and Prime Minister to quickly and without any contention agree to who should replace Saitoti and Ojode in these two critical portfolios not only in the general security of our country but, more specifically, in this even more critical year of election.

The ideal candidate for both positions must be someone who has proven in their deeds that they are not partisan hacks or sympathizer or cronies of anyone in politics today but a nationalist who must place Kenya first in the execution of their duties and responsibilities.

I know that’s asking too much of a country so consumed with the politics of succession but it must be done if we are to have a shot at avoiding even worse than we have seen before in the weeks and months to come preceding the elections or even after.

Having said that, the onus is on the president to proceed in a very thoughtful manner how these appointments are made bearing in mind sometimes a leader must transcend politics and make decisions that save a nation at the expense of his or her own political interests be they party of personal political interests.

I say so because there may be a temptation to say Saitoti came from the PNU wing of the coalition government therefore he must be replaced by another PNU but that thinking is wrong for several reasons:

First, the government belongs to the people, not parties.

While it’s the law that we have shared government, the reality is, if we are all to be intellectually honest, there are certain things that never should see partisan divide of any kind and our national security is one such thing and actually the only one we all must agree it is.

Second, we are still dealing with PEV and its effects.

Nothing can send a stronger signal that we have learned the lessons of PEV as a nation and that we are unwilling to ever go down that dark road again than appointing a minister and assistant minister for Internal Security who everyone can agree in saying we can trust them to provide leadership in internal security free of politics or bias in favor of peace and unity.

Conversely, shoving down our throats a partisan hack to head the internal security ministry would be a signal some people have not learned anything about PEV and are willing and able to lead us yet again to the dark road we must never allow ourselves to be led into.

Third, moments like this ought to put the whole nation on pause and think about what’s really important; is the pursuit of power and unlimited wealth worth it if your life can be snuffed and end in an instant like this or is it far more worthwhile to pursue that what makes your fellow Kenyans or human being for that matter live a better and more fulfilling life?

In sum, let’s use this tragic event to do that what unites us as a country not what shall further divide us or maintain status quo where maintaining power and ill-gained wealth is paramount over the welfare of our country.

Naming an all-around acceptable minister and assistant minister for Internal Security followed by a crack-down on divisive politics intended to stoke up tribal animosity and paving way for an open and transparent elections would be the best way we can mourn the departed ones.

May God help us in doing just that.

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Posted by on June 10, 2012 in Politics


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My Take on the PNU-Alliance MOU Apparently Signed By UK, Saitoti and Kalonzo To Challenge Raila In 2012

In the story appearing in the Standard Online, it is reported that UK, Saitoti and Kalonzo have apparently signed an MOU on the way forward for PNU in its quest to retain the presidency on its column.

I have taken the time to analyze the story and please allow me the pleasure to reveal to you what these politicians are actually saying:

Kalonzo, Saitoti and I are candidates. The issue is to identify a candidate in an open process,” Uhuru said, adding that what mattered was a free and fair process.

Translation: “Kalonzo, Saitoti and I are candidates. If that’s not obvious to you, then I have something else coming for you: The issue is to identify a candidate in an “open” process, which means a process that favors my candidacy. It will only be a free and fair process, if I am nominated as the flag-bearer. Kalonzo is a lightweight compared to me, both in stature and financially. Saitoti is yesterday news and besides he, too, is a lightweight compared to me financially so I am the only one who can take this party to victory against Raila who is even more broke relatively speaking than these two wannabes. How can it therefore be a “fair and open” process, if I am not nominated?”

Mr Kalonzo said that the unity of the three presidential aspirants stands firm. “You have my personal commitment,” said Kalonzo.

Translation: “I know you know that I gave the same “personal commitment” to Raila, Ruto and Mudavadi in the run-up to the 2007 ODM nomination but I bolted the moment I concluded I had no chance of nomination with ODM. However, this is 2011. I am now a firm believer in keeping one’s word and I promise you I am not the traitor everyone thinks I am. You can trust me on my word this time around. Really; you have to because if you must know, no one else is going to. Raila cannot. Ruto cannot. But I must belong somewhere and this is it for me. I’ll do anything you want me to in exchange for something I ask a small favor of all of you: If I am not nominated for president in this alliance, which is not likely, anyway, can either of you who actually does get nominated please consider and pick me as your running mate? Please?”

Kalonzo added, “If we stand together, we will win. We should remove suspicions of any description to win.”

Translation: “As I have said, you have nothing to be suspicious about me; I am as reliable now as in not time in my life. However, I can’t say the same thing about the two of you; UK you have every reason to be suspicious of Saitoti, just as he has every reason to be suspicious of you so I doubt we are all three in the end going to stand together because if we do, that means one of us is not going to be president or vice president and I must be one, you see; I can’t demote myself from VP to nothing. All I am saying is, let’s stand together until nomination time. If either of you is nominated, just remember all I need is for you to consider and pick me for VP and that includes VP for the either of you who bolts, if not nominated so as far as I am concerned, if we stand together, meaning whichever one of you who picks me and I stand together, we will win”

Prof Saitoti said that it was only in unity that they would come up with a leader in 2012.

Translation: “I say let all the parties in the country unite and pick one candidate to run for president. I know that’s impossible, but at least that way I’ll not be the only one fuming about not getting picked with any party as their flag bearer.”

Saitoti, who is the PNU chairman, added he was committed to participate in the presidential nominations and would support the victor.

Translation: “I am so indifferent about this exercise, it really doesn’t matter to me who gets nominated and the only question I keep asking myself is, why me? How can I be this country’s Vice President and yet be treated as though I don’t exist? I know UK here is looking at me with contempt and not sure why but really, am I that bad? And you, Kalonzo, when I was VP, I did more in a day than you have done the entire time you have been VP and now you want to hold yourself as equal to me? I mean, how can I be this unfortunate in having all avenues to State House blocked by the likes of you. I’ll support anyone who gets nominated except for you, pal. And for you, UK, you had better make me your running mate otherwise, off to Central I go to mes up whatever chances you have of getting votes there!”

Peace, Love and Unity


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Posted by on September 16, 2011 in Politics


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