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The RV and Ruto Factor: Why Raila Is Doing Fine and Will Do Even Better Come 2012

My analysis upon which I base my suggestion people should start practicing saying President Raila Amolo Odinga or just Mr. President, if they can’t bring themselves to mention his name in the same breath with “president,” is predicated on the following premises I and others believe hold strong against any other analyses there may be out there:

First, Raila has and must have a 47-county winning strategy. In this view, tribalism is not a factor.

I know people are obsessed with tribalism and hope it once again shows its ugly head in 2012, I am more optimistic and say tribalism will be dealt a serious, if not fatal blow come 2012.

Second, the much exaggerated “irreversible losses” in RV will in the end be proven to be just that: exaggerated losses. As I have noted elsewhere, yes, Raila and ODM lost some ground in RV due to Ruto’s early efforts to damage and even topple Raila as leading presidential contender, but Ruto has failed miserably in his plan it’s now too late for him to prevent Raila from regaining lost ground, and even surpassing what support he had in 2007.

I am not just saying that; I have actually looked into all of this very carefully before reaching such conclusion but to understand where I am coming from, one has to read my blogs on this “RV factor,” including the following:

Who Is William Ruto Part VI: The Succession Game And Why Ruto’s Scheme To Topple Raila Failed

The News About RV ODM MPS Getting Set To Regain Ground In RV Is Not Just Good News for Raila and ODM But Great News For the Country As Well

My Response to Those In Denial About Raila’s Successful Moves in RV and ODM’s Overall Prospects in 2012

An Open Letter to H.E Daniel Retd. President Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi, C.G.H.

Third, regardless of what happens in 2012, there is no single candidate who is going to sweep any region or area, except perhaps Nyanza, and Central, if UK is at the head of whatever party he runs under. In all other cases, votes will be shared leaving only the million dollar question, who will get how many votes and where?

As I have noted above, this for Raila and ODM is a county-by-county arithmetic taking into consideration a number of factors I need not get into here for obvious reasons but I am certain the number crunchers at ODM are busy trying to figure just that out and will continue to do so until election day.

We shall let our opponents cherry-pick the counties along tribal and ethnic lines for their strategy or base it on yesterday voting trends but that’s their prerogative.

ODM is a forward looking party. We lead, others will follow.

Fourth, you cannot find a more stronger supporter of Ruto in ODM than yours truly.

So much so I have done a 6-part series on him in my blog (search the archives here) with my last and final part coming up soon in which I once more invite Ruto to return to ODM or remain adamant in carrying his cross to likely political oblivion and irrelevance.

BTW, I long ago concluded in Who Is William Ruto Part V that Ruto, Kosgey and Sang will not be convicted either at the Hague or in Kenya and even hinted I doubt the rest of the pack will be convicted or if convicted that any of them will ever see the inside of a jail and have shared my deeper strategic analysis about this with those I share privately so one can assume people are not sitting there planning strategy based on charges against Ruto or UK being confirmed or either or both being convicted.

That’s Plan B at best and nobody spends much time on plan B unless they have no confidence in Plan A.

Raila’s Plan A is and has to be predicated on the presumption none of the charges are confirmed or if confirmed, neither Ruto nor UK is convicted.

Everything else is either Plan B, C, D,E or F depending on what different scenarios may emerge, including UK announcing he no longer wishes to run and throws his support behind his friend Raila.

So, in my view, Ruto and ICC is not a factor but I maintain Ruto needs to return to ODM where he should never have wandered away from.

However, strong a proponent of his return I am unlike many in ODM who think he should be jettisoned, I do not say, do not base on and neither would I say as others mistakenly believe that “Without Ruto, Raila will have to forget the presidency” or some variation of that sentiment suggesting Ruto is indispensable for Raila to win.

Not true.

Quite the contrary, Ruto is dispensable as an unused but expired condom.

Ruto may find himself in the same posture figuratively speaking if he does not re-think and return to ODM as I advised him in ODM Prodigal Son Come Home but the call is his and his alone.

Again, I have yet to wash my hands on him with my pleas, but I know he is a smart fellow and will in time come to this realization he is better off in ODM than anywhere else.

For the same reason, I disagree that “anybody who is serious in harvesting Kalenjin votes in 2012 must talk to Ruto or else they can kiss bye the votes.”

Indeed, I have seen elsewhere rabid anti-Railaists claiming to speak on behalf of all Kalenjins that if Ruto were to return to ODM, the Kalenjins will not follow him because they hate Raila that much.

Here is the reality: Some Kelenjins hate Raila; some Kalenjins like Raila and others are indifferent.

Leading these sub-groups, are of course, their elected and local leaders.

Ruto may have sway with those Kales who for one reason or another hate Raila or those who are indifferent but the battle for RV between Raila and Ruto is among the indifferent: Who wins a majority of them, meaning the indifferent, wins RV.

It’s that simple.

As I have repeatedly said, nobody knows how important it is to win the indifferent in RV than Raila himself and anyone following the news, knows he is making progress in this direction.

He obviously need not spend sleepless nights over it as some suggest and neither does he have to “woo” Ruto for Ruto has his own self-interest and natural reasons to have him rethink his decamping from ODM very soon and this shall soon be the case, I believe.

In other words, yes Raila stands to benefit by Ruto’s coming to full realization he is headed the wrong direction and staying put in ODM and backing Raila but the converse is not true for Raila’s train to victory rumbles on whether or not Ruto is aboard.

The notion that “any other move [not wooing Ruto] is a waste of time because even those Kalenjins following Raila will soon decamp or will be swept off the Kalenjin political landscape” abuses the intelligence of the Kalenjin people and I would not want to further dignify it with a response other than to say, please refer to my comments above and specifically those regarding ending tribalism.

Finally, but not least, some are still insisting that Raila is better off with dropping Mudavadi and picking a new running mate.

I at one time briefly entertained the same view but have since changed and now firmly believe Raila will make a fatal error if he drops Mudavadi for reasons I provide in the following two blogs:

My Take On Prof. Makau Mutua Suggestion That Raila Should Drop Mudavadi In Favor of Paul Muite

Why Raila Cannot Drop Mudavadi And Word To Raila Supporters and Admirers in East And Central Kenya

Incidentally, I disagree quite often with Makau Mutua so even though we both live in “Utopia” with Mutahi Ngunyi as  one blogger suggests, we must live in different states of utopia.

You are all welcome to join us there for it’s a perfect world and the next best thing to heaven.

All Kenyans deserve to live in such a world as do the rest of the world.

Peace, Love and Unity

Omwenga

[Unedited]

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Posted by on September 19, 2011 in Politics, Uncategorized

 

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My Response to A US Based Angry Kalenjin Anti-Railaist

This is my second response to a US based Kalenjin netter ranting and raving about same tired tirades against Raila. Although the netter addressed his post to another anti-Railaist, I chose to respond as it was essentially all about me and my support for Raila.

My response:

The last time I responded to you, I noted that you are obviously bitter since 08 and offered a prayer for you, which you declined, saying you don’t need any prayer from me. I think it’s the first time I heard anyone reject a prayer but then, you might be an atheist or agnostic, in which case it would make sense to reject a sincerely offered prayer.

I nonetheless prayed for you because the God I believe in does not need your permission to grant the prayer.

I must pray some more for you because the prayer has not been answered as I can still detect the anger and bitterness in your diatribe below, if not more.

In fact, it’s anger and rage driven views such as yours from you and others that over time led me to pen my recent blog A Call for National Healing. In responding to that blog, Prof. Kimani Njogu noted the following:

I know that the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) is partnering with Africa Health and Development International (AHADI) to organize a series of dialogues around the country towards national healing. In essense, the dialogues revolve around grievances that communities have against other communities and against the state and what realistic solutions can help reduce/eliminate them. Discussions on cross-border issues, citizenship, statelessness etc are also planned. The ten convenings will culminate in a the People’s Conference in November during the Week of Tolerance. National healing, in my view, starts with accepting that there are issues to be tackled by all of us. It involves ‘voicing’ what makes us angry and providing realistic solutions. I understand the first convening will be in Nairobi this month. It will be worth participating in these meetings and also The People’s Conference.

This would be an appropriate venue to vent your anger and I truly hope you can find a way to be a part of it.

I suspect very strongly you and I trying to exchange here will make no difference.

I know I know and am confident about myself enough to scoop to your level, take your insults and still try to understand where you are coming from but all I see is bent up anger.

I cannot help you with that, other than to pray for you and wish you well but I assume you’ll reject same as the last time so let me at least address a few things out of discretion.

I would otherwise easily ignore all of the assertions as not worth responding to but it’s not midnight so I have some time to respond to you, other than the completely nonsensical tirades or issues that I believe more appropriately belong at the venue suggested above:

You say, “Brother X, I don’t even understand why you keep on engaging this guy who calls himself Mr. Omwenga Esq. Like I said before, you can’t EVER reason with a zealot like him. To him and his ilk, Agwambo, aka Raila Amolo Odinga, is the Alpha and Omega of everything! So what’s the point of even dialoguing with him?

I don’t know where you studied your logic but you can actually reason with a zealot.

You are perhaps confusing inability to reason as reason one cannot reason with a zealot.

You say, “You have to read his latest assertions to understand that he lives in la la land. Like my mama always says, you can be book smart but you can still be an idiot like the way this guy is

Please leave your mama out of these debates but if you must drag her into this, she would probably counsel you that calling people names neither advances nor makes any point among people with an IQ over yours.

In other words, only people with an IQ below the person relying on name calling and profanity find any value in use of such language because they don’t know better than the debater so using profanity to make their feeble points, if any.

True intellectuals never resort to that level of argument: Stick to the issues and win or lose you are still a winner because it’s not who is an idiot or smart that matters but whether you have made your case or not.

That’s what mature, intelligent netters on these fora are supposed to do: educate, inform and sometimes win over ideas.

You say, “He might write lots of crap that looks like something, but the writing is just a bunch of hogwash.”

It’s helpful and more convincing to a reader if you point out what exactly I write that is “crap” or “hogwash” and why rather merely describing it as such.

Saying so does not make it so and I am sure you know as much as you loath it, others love it and this is true of every blogger who puts their ideas out there for public consumption.

In other words, you can describe my blogs in the most vile and insidious manner but that does absolutely nothing other than to make you feel good.

I will always blog about the issues I care about exactly the same way I wish to,  completely unbothered with how you or those who can’t stand my blogs feel or think about them.

You say, “Like I have said before, I don’t have anything against Mr. Omwenga or his IDOL Raila.”

I must give you the Lie of the Year Award on this one.

You say, “I get pretty disgusted when he goes about painting this picture that he is an analyst of current events when in fact what he writes, only exist in his mind!”

Why would you be disgusted if what I write exists only in my mind? Should you not instead be happy if all I write is fiction and not precise political analysis based on current events or are you disgusted with it because what I write is so analytically precise and true? As I told some other whiner, don’t hate, pen your own analysis. I don’t claim to have a monopoly of this and neither should anyone; if you are disgusted, pen your own analytic response and not these angry outbursts I am now compelled to respond to, devoid of substance as they are.

You say, “Take for instance this assertion that he claims. For some reason, according to him, if the Kalenjins and the Kikuyus vote as a block— that is tribalism. Can you believe this bullsh**? I mean, you have to be a retard to buy these stuff or even entertain it for one second!”I don’t know what your English level is but I would encourage you to go back and re-read my blogs and you should be able to see the argument I make is, the Kikuyus and Kalenjins must take the lead in ending tribalism. That does not mean they are the only ones engaged in tribalism and neither have I said anywhere that they are the only ones who vote as a bloc. I even in one of the blogs categorically stated that, if the Kikuyus and Kalenjin do this, the rest of the country will follow suit so rather coloring your non-point with vulgar language, get the information correct by properly reading and understanding what it is I say in these blogs.

You can inform yourself on my position on ending tribalism and negative ethnicity in Kenya by at least reading my blog (or “crap” as you prefer) The Kikuyu Must Lead In Ending Tribalism In Kenya, Followed By The Kalenjin and the Rest of the Country Will Follow

You say, “In one of his latest stupid blogs he says...”I and others believe and have stated elsewhere, including in communication to President Kibaki himself that the Kikuyus and Kalenjins must lead the nation in ending  tribalism and negative ethnicity in Kenya by not voting as a bloc, in the case of the Kalenjin and by voting for someone other than “their own” and not voting as bloc, too, in the case of Kikuyus.(An Open Letter To H.E. Retd. President Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi, C.G.H.) Folks, I am not going to insult you by belittling your intelligence just like Mr. Omwenga  did! Those who really know Kenya and her politics will tell you that the Luos’, since independence, have always voted as a bloc. 

I refer you to what I have just said above regarding ending tribalism and voting in blocs. I can add a point here about transitional and transformational periods in leadership and politics but I am sure you won’t understand it, given how you have not understood my basic points so let me leave that for another day.

Suffice to say this is the underlying philosophy in my missives to Kibaki and Moi.

You say, So for someone like Mr. Omwenga to have the audacity to preach to us about tribalism and how Raila is above it ALL is VERY INSULTING AND PATHETICALLY MISLEADING, not to mention the fact that it HAPPENS TO BE THE BIGGEST LIE EVER INVENTED!!! It actually pisses me off!

Nothing I have blogged is misleading or a lie except in your own little world and the biggest lie ever invented is the one I have awarded Lie of the Year above.

Everything that you have said about Luos I have either addressed it in the past in response to you and others, or it belongs in the national healing dialogue I suggested to you above.

Everything you have said about Kalenjins, I have addressed in my many blogs, including

The News About RV ODM MPS Getting Set To Regain Ground In RV In Good News Not Just For ODM But For The Country As Well,

My Response To Those In Denial About Raila’s Successful Moves In RV and ODM Overal Prospects in 2012

Everything you have said about Ruto, I have addressed in my many blogs about him, which I referred you to read in my last response but if you have not had time to read all of them, at least read Who Is William Ruto Part VI: The Succession Game And Why The Scheme To Topple Raila Has Failed

You say, “Folks, does this makes sense to you? Is this logical? If you guys are smart enough (which I believe you are), you would see that this Omwenga dude is just another of those Raila stooges who doesn’t think for themselves nor even bother to deal with facts. Facts to them are like oil and water! They don’t mix.

I assume you are smart enough to understand why I need not respond to this nonsense?

You say, “Mr. X, don’t even bother about the letter that Mr. Omwenga wrote to Mr. Moi. The Kalenjins parted ways with Raila a long time ago. And the Kalenjins doesn’t even follow what Moi thinks or tells them anymore. They never did in 2007 anyway, so why the heck would they do that now.”

This remains to be seen, does it not?

You say, “But they have realized that they made a HORRENDOUS MISTAKE in 2007 in SUPPORTING Raila alias “Arap Mibei.”

Raila and ODM are slowly but surely regaining lost ground in the RV, ground lost due to Ruto’s lies and shenanigans and my prediction is, come elections next year, Raila will carry RV and let me not say upende usipende for mine is just an informed prediction.

As I told someone just yesterday, many of you from RV who come ranting and raving against Raila in these fora either forget or genuinely don’t know that bloggers like myself have friends on the ground in RV who provide us accurate assessment–good and bad but objective nonetheless that’s 1000x more meaningful even when it’s inaccurate or off than anything you could ever write or say here.

In fact, one of my friends there did not even vote for Raila in 07 and even remains uncommitted to-date but he nonetheless has his ear to the ground and knows about everything there is to know there.

My point is, speak for yourself and your anti-Raila crowd and remain in denial as much as you wish, but the reality is, Awambo is in all likelihood on the way to State House again and this time nobody is going to prevent his swearing in.

You say, I don’t like tribalism. Period! But I am not that dumb enough or too naive to think that leaders like Raila are not tribalists. He has his tribe solidly behind him  like always. He HOLDS SWAY WITH THE LUO’S and simply the fact that other tribal leaders hold sway with their tribes MAKES THEM TRIBALISTS NOW? Please Mr. Omwenga, spare me YOUR MADNESS!!!

What you call madness is otherwise known as truth in this case, which I cannot spare you or anyone.

I have nothing to say about what you have said about Miguna Miguna as I have said all I have to say about it on my blog Miguna May Be Hurting But He Is Being Disingenuous As To Raila.

You say, “Mr. Omwenga, call me a tribalist if you want to. I care less. But one fact I can bet my own very life is that here in America, people are divided along tribal lines (they call it ideology). And in  my book, tribalism and ideology are one and the same. It makes people not use their minds or vote with principles. America nearly defaulted because of zealots like you Omwenga, who see facts and reality in a very strange way.

I actually don’t think you are a tribalist; you just hate Raila and cannot stand the fact he is likely the next president in Kenya but I don’t think this has to do anything with him being Luo and neither have I seen anything to lead me to believe you hate Luos as a group, which would be the other component necessary to qualify as a tribalist.

On the other hand, I do believe all your anger and rage against Raila derives from PEV, which is why I have strongly recommended that you seek closure, perhaps through the above suggested dialogue or other means.

You are most certainly hurting and it’s obvious.

As I said, I am praying for you whether you accept or not and I truly mean that.

You say, “In conclusion, we are all entitled to our opinions, but not our own sets of facts! Be clear on that Mr. Omwenga.”

I’ll tell you the same thing I told you last time about this same point: heed your own counsel.

You say, “And Raila is not fit to be a leader of any nation, let alone Kenya.”

He is and more.

You say, “To me, he should have met the same fate that Ochuga got at Kamiti prison.”

You have crossed the line here and I strongly encourage you to withdraw this statement.

You say, “Treason is treason no matter how some try to color it. And I have no qualms saying Raila met all the criteria under the afore mentioned term! I rest my case.

Same advise.

Peace, Love and Unity
Samuel N. Omwenga, Esq.
[Unedited]
 
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Posted by on August 18, 2011 in Politics

 

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My Response To A Kalenjin Still In Denial About the Truth Regarding Raila and Rift Valley Politics

The following is my comprehensive response to a Kalenjin netter who raises the same old false claims about Raila and Rift Valley, and specifically, that Raila has no chance in getting votes in the Rift Valley, when ever indication is, Raila will do just fine and is making every effort, as he should, to make sure this is, indeed, the case in the end.

My response:

Before I respond to your harangue below, or even before you read mine, you should first go to my blog and read what I have written about Ruto. I know what I have written about him is a lot, so just read Who Is William Ruto Part V and you’ll see that I have done a thorough legal analysis of the case against him, Kosgey and Sang, and concluded all 3 men will not be convicted either at the Hague or in Kenya for the legal reasons I state in the blog.

You will notice that I have provided objective, legal reasons, not the the emotional banter you offer below, why Ruto should not be charged as he is, let alone tried or convicted.

You say, “Folks, I am forced to respond to the current discussion in the sense that there seems to be total idiots in this forum who spout their hatred for Mr. William Rutto.

If you have perused my blog as I suggested, you have therefore readily noted that I am the opposite of those “idiots” who “spout their hatred for Mr. William Ruto.”

In fact, not uncharacteristic of me, I have shown and continue to show nothing but love and kindness for Ruto not because I have to, but because I have no reason not to.

You’ll notice in my blogs about him that I have analyzed and concluded he is a selfish schemer but so are many a politician.

I recently hinted here and elsewhere that I am about to post my last blog about him, and last plea to him to wake up and make amends with Raila, thereafter I’ll wash my hands of him and wait to tell him, I told you so, if he still remains stone deaf to my counsel.

BTW, I have several questions for you: Does someone have to be an idiot in order to “spout their hatred for Mr. William Ruto?”

Or put it differently, is there a correlation between hate and intellect?

Is an idiot more prone to hate for no reason than a genius?

Conversely, is a genius more prone to love than hate for any reason?

I am not a psychologist but I know enough to tell you hate is driven by neither stupidity nor intelligence but by emotion, so labeling people as idiots, just because they express hate, if they do, is simply misplaced and unnecessary verbiage; just stick to telling us what it is they have said that is hateful of Ruto.

In other words, labeling people as idiots does not make them less or more haters and neither does it make them good or bad haters, assuming, as one must, that you mean being an “idiot” hater is worse than an intelligent hater.

Makes no sense to me and thus my effort to point out to you, in debate or any other discourse for that matter, avoid labeling people names; just make your case and let your reader or listener come to conclusions as to who is an idiot or whatever you are trying to describe, you, or those you describe as such: the determining factor is the content of your debate or discourse.

You say, “I bet some of these retards doesn’t even know the man other than what the so called Kenyan National Commission on Human Rights (read Omar Hassan) espouses!!!

Someone can say you are a retard by your incorrect use of English grammar in your sentence calling others retards; who is right? My point is the same, just avoid calling people names as it neither makes nor advances whatever point you are trying to make and, even more importantly, they, too, can call you the same thing so where does that leave the discourse?

Nowhere other than downward spiraling.

You say, “Despite  being a Kalenjin, I haven’t necessarily been a vocal supporter of Mr. Rutto. I have nothing against the man. My main beef ( which a lot of my tribesmen vilified me for), was the fact that he supported Mr. Raila Odinga in 2007. I had vigorously told the said folks that Raila was not a man to be TRUSTED.”

Question for you: Who did you tell these “folks” was to be trusted in 2007 in lieu of Raila?

I can ask you to tell us what reasons you told these “folks” why Raila could not be trusted in 2007 but that would be unhelpful.

You say, “All of them now tell me that I was right all along in my analysis.”

Well, congratulations on this staggering feat.

You say, “And to reiterate again, I have nothing against Mr.Raila.My opinion has always been that he is not cut to be the President of Kenya.

In the new Kenya, leaders must be elected, based not on opinion and innuendo, which can easily be manipulated, but based on provable and demonstrable facts and information that establish one’s qualification to be elected president.

Just as your claim that you advised your fellow Kalenjins that Raila was not to be trusted in 2007, your assertion that you have always held an opinion that Raila is “not cut” to be president of Kenya is equally devoid of any substance upon which either can can be evaluated and therefore both must be dismissed as nothing but hyperbole.

You say, “Who knows, may be I am just biased since he one tried to overthrow a legitimately elected government of the Republic of Kenya.”

I, too, am with you on this bias. I have actually never understood to this day why people bother to liberate their fellow country men and women from “legitimately elected” but oppressive governments. My view is, these governments should and ought to be allowed to continue oppressing their people with impunity and if people have an issue with that, they should wait until the next elections and vote these oppressive governments out. If these oppressive governments have put in place mechanisms to ensure that they “legitimately” remain in power, then this is a fact we all must learn to live with rather than trying other means to remove them from from power so I agree with you, Raila’s admitted involvement in efforts to remove the oppressive government of Moi from power is nothing he should be proud of and nobody should ever give him any credit for his gallant and sacrificial efforts to liberate the people of Kenya for which he ended up paying dearly.

You say, “And it has nothing to do with a Kalenjin being the president then.”

I am with you here, too; why should it make a difference which tribal leader is oppressing his people. The key thing is, if it is a “legitimately” elected government, it should ought to be allowed to oppress its people at will and without any recourse for those who feel compelled to do something about it.

You say, “Call me naive if you want, I just don’t believe and TRUST those folks who want power EVEN TRHOUGH THE BARREL OF A GUN.

Again, I could not agree with you more; people like Nelson Mandela should never, ever be trusted and I don’t even understand why Mandela was ever elected president of South Africa, having previously resorted to armed struggle to liberate black and colored South Africans. Rather than resorting to armed struggle, the best thing Mandela and ANC could have done in fighting apartheid and the oppressive regime of South Africa should have been simply look the other way, while their people were being oppressed.
Ditto for Raila; rather than resorting to other means to remove the oppressive Moi from power, the best thing he should have done is to simply look the other way, while Kenyans continued to be oppressed.

Never mind that Raila’s efforts and sacrifices and those of others led to the Second Liberation and now the Third Liberation with the promulgation of the new constitution. As you say, these people cannot be trusted for putting their lives on the line for the sake of liberating the people of Kenya.

You say, “I know Raila’s die-hards are hyperventilating at this juncture.”

This is one die-hard Railaist who’ll never hyperventilate over anything he reads here or anywhere else for that matter.

You say, “Just calm down and read on!

Again, no “hyperventilation” here, but I am reading on.

You say, “I have nothing against Tinga alias Arap Mibei. He just happens to be a radical. Well, nothing wrong being a radical.

I assume you have already identified your own contradiction, if not hypocrisy in this assertion, viz what you have said above?

Actually, I am one on some level since my undergrad major is political science.”

Pursuing an undergraduate degree in political science makes you a radical? What am I missing here?

You say, “But being a radical and being a Statesman are two different things.

Not necessarily, but what’s your point?

You say, “Raila has never has the fortitude to be one[Statesman].

Raila is, in fact, a statesman and has been for a very long time; at least since 2008 when he took the high road and agreed to share power with Kibaki, who he had defeated at the polls.

You say, “Raila is no Nelson Mandela or Dr. M L King Jr.

Raila has never said he is a Nelson Mandela nor has he ever claimed he is a Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

However, if you must go there, let me state the obvious that Raila has a lot in common with the two great men than any presidential candidate in Kenya today and for a long time to come.

To illustrate, close your eyes and think pick any of the candidates other than Raila and try to compare any with these great men; see anything in common with them?

Nothing.

Now do the same thing with Raila; see anything in common?

If you don’t see at least 5, you need to hit those political science books a little harder.

You say, “[Raila] never knew and still doesn’t know how to be a REAL LEADER!

You are so acerbically alone in this view, there is no need to comment on it any further.

You say, “Like I was telling my folks, Raila came to “bite the hand that fed him“.

I assume you are here trying to say something about Kale’s voting for Raila only to have him “bite” them?

This is such a tired lie first put forth by Ruto and now you and others.

Raila never has and never will do anything to “bite” anyone’s hand that feeds him; his enemies and distractors relish on telling lies to the contrary but in the end, they shall all come to pass with no effect.

You say, “And folks, we are entitled to our own opinions, but what we are not entitled to, is our own sets of facts! Never!

Of course; unless it serves our own purposes and propaganda.

You say, “The truth of the matter is that Raila owes the position of PM to the electorate of Rift Valley(read kalenjins). Thats a fact that Railalets don’t even want to fathom or acknowledge! Too bad coz you can’t argue with facts.

Please heed to your own counsel, with my caveat: you are entitled to your own opinion but not your own set of facts.

You have here manufactured your own set of “facts” and now wish that I or anyone argue with them?

No way.

You say, “Raila has lost the Kalenjin vote

No; he has not. He may have lost some votes of the likes of you and a few others Ruto has managed to misinform and mislead but by every indication is, Raila will harvest a good chunk of votes in the Rift Valley, if not sweep it altogether.

You say, “As to why Mr. Raila has lost the Kalenjin vote and why, is a story for another day.

Very clever. You have nothing to say about something, better not say anything at all.

You cannot articulate a single reason why Raila has “lost” the Kalenjin vote other than Ruto’s lies and distortions.

Note one.

You say, “But it is suffice to say that Tinga doesn’t have any clear path to State House other than Nyanza proper and his Langata domicile.”

You are so acerbically alone in this view, there is no need to comment on it any further.

You say, “Anyone wishing to win the presidency has to go through Kalenjin land.

You missed the memo.

The message we are preaching now is ending tribalism as a determinative factor in presidential elections.

With Raila’s win in 2012, the big, fat, ugly animal of tribalism would be slain and never to be heard of again.

So, get with the program and start preaching the same message.

No one has to go through Kalenjin land, or Kikuyu land, or Kisii land, or whatever people’s land to win the presidency; they just need to be elected on the strength of their qualifications and their vision for the country.

This is what Raila is running on and, as I have repeatedly stated, he wins, the whole country wins, he loses, tribalism prevails much to the jubilation of the likes of you, which shall be sad, indeed, for the country.

You say, “Those are the realities of politics in Kenya as of today. Anyone saying different is just bwoggable or has been drinking a lot of kool-aid!

I am saying what you say is not the reality of politics in Kenya as of today and no, I am not “bwoggable” and neither have I been drinking any kool-aid.

In fact, I am sipping fine Kenyan tea, as I am penning this response to you.

You say, “Now the Kalenjin mood has shifted again and things have become elephant in Tingas ODM. Tinga has lost control and things in ODM are nolonger at ease!!!

I suggest you read my two blogs in which I have thoroughly analyzed the Rift Valley “issue” and concluded Raila will do just fine there and these are, My Response to Those In Denial About Raila’s Successful Moves In RV, and The News About Rift Valley ODM MPs Getting Set To Regain Ground Is Good News for the Country.

Everything you have said about Ruto is emotional blather I need not respond to.

As I suggested above, you should have read my blog on what I have said about PEV, Ruto and ICC, which is what you are trying to say in your emotional, and sometimes angry blather but all you need to say, I have already said in my blog, which I suggest you read, if you have not already for what types of arguments you should be making instead of what you have here.

BTW, I know this is so difficult for the likes of you, but can you try to make your arguments without dragging Raila into every argument you try to make, even where there is clearly no connection?

The last time I checked, there were only six suspects charged with PEV.

Yet, you have spent breathless moments here in futile efforts to make Raila the seventh suspect.

I can tell you are good at making up facts as in when you claim that Kalenjin’s made Raila PM, but no amount of creativity in the manufacture of facts can lead to you or anyone creating any, even for purposes of propaganda, that could even remotely link the Right Hon. Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga to PEV.

You can’t do that and neither can anyone else among all of you who refuse to accept facts and reality when it comes to RAO.

You say, “But my bet is on Kalonzo Musyoka as the man to beat next year.”

Please go to my blog A Conversation With Kalonzo Musyoka for my take on the man.

I have elsewhere said, if Kalonzo were to somehow be elected president, I would have to move to a neighboring country and live there until I fully recover from the shock.

Peace, Love and Unity

Samuel N. Omwenga, Esq.

[Unedited]

 
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Posted by on July 27, 2011 in Politics

 

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My Response to Concerns, False Claims and Accusations Against Raila III

The following is my response to an individual who raised a number of issues and allegations he thought explain the rift between Raila and Ruto. In this individual’s view, Ruto and Raila are both to blame but the individual makes a number of allegations why he thinks Raila is to be blamed more than Ruto for the rift. I show in my response that the individual is mistaken; Ruto, not Raila is far more responsible for the rift than anything Raila has said or done to cause the rift but I have elsewhere including here on this blog extended an olive branch in behalf of Raila and ODM for Ruto to seek amends with Raila and return to ODM where his political future is brighter and more certain and assured than any dalliances he might have with Uhuru or anyone else would ever lead to.

My response to the individual:

You have raised a number of issues that I do believe are sincere and not merely an effort to malign Raila. So, let me in the same spirit try to respond them one by one and hopefully you may see things differently as to these issues; at least enough to give the man a break for he has not acted with malice as you seem to suggest. I posted the other day a response to someone who believes Raila should resign as PM because in the view of this individual, Raila “omitted” to do something he did not name.

In that response, I posited that if this individual were to point out to Raila what it is he has omitted to do as PM which he has authority to do and has otherwise not been impeded by his distractors in the coalition government, then I am sure Raila will take note, apologize and get to whatever that issue is and were that to be the case, I further posited that the individual should forgive that omission and let the PM do his job, not demand for his resignation which does not make sense there being no ground to resign as it were.

You have a similar but different beef with Raila. While yours is not based on omission as this individual’s but commission, you both and like minded non-Raila supporters will be thrilled beyond expectation if Raila were to give his quest to lead the nation as president and retire to his farm in Bondo. The rest and majority of the country, however, will not be as thrilled because they are so looking forward to his taking the helm of leadership and finally deliver on the promise they elected him in 2007.

Now, as to the specific issues you raise, let me address them this way:

You say, regarding problems between Raila and Ruto, “I heap a bigger share on Raila though Ruto too contributed.”

I commend you for this observation because it shows you are at least somewhat objective. I say Ruto, however, has a bigger share of the blame if anything for being disloyal. I can go on and on on this point alone but let me not but only add that, were Ruto to remain loyal as a Raila supporter, if he ever was (I maintain he was never a loyal supporter), none of the issues you raise or he has with Raila could not have been amicably resolved within the family of ODM. He was or became disloyal and others would say even extremely selfish and that is the genesis of his problems with Raila and ODM, not the issues you raise below I am about to show you why they are not real issues.

You say, “Ruto campaigned with vigor for Raila in the last election…”

Ruto’s campaigning with vigor for Raila is a non-issue and here is why: When Ruto failed to convince his mentor, Moi, to support him as a KANU presidential candidate for 2007, Ruto sought greener pastures in ODM, which overwhelmingly chose Raila is its flag bearer for the 2007 presidential election. Having lost the nomination to Raila, Ruto had two choices: Support Raila in his bid for the presidency or quit the party for yet other greener pastures. He chose to support Raila. Having chosen to support Raila in his bid for the presidency, it was expected of him and all others in the party to campaign with vigor for Raila. That’s part of what is called party loyalty.

You say, “I don’t know of anybody else who can match what he did for Raila, not even Mudavadi and that explains why he is very bitter with Raila.”

Ruto himself admitted in the Waki Report that Kalenjins were ready to vote en masse for anyone other than Kibaki and long before Ruto joined ODM, Raila had made inroads in the region to the point it was a foregone conclusion he will carry it; Ruto came along for the ride to victory therefore he cannot possibly make the case he did more for Raila than anyone else in 2007 and neither should you.

You say, “He spend alot of money and time to campaign for ODM and her presidential candidate and as we all know it ended up where everybody knows.

How much of this money is the fruit of the various scandals he has been accused of? How much of that came from ODM? How much of that was spent for his own reelection? Is this not crying crocodile tears?

You say, “Once he was safely in government, [Raila] chose to work and surround himself with his tribesmen (Orengo, Nyongo, Kwajwang and some MPs) ignoring those who helped him in the campaigns (Pentagon).”

I miss your point: are you saying Raila should have shunned these individuals because they are his “tribesmen?” Also, who exactly did Raila ignore at the Pentagon who helped him in the campaigns?

You say, “He became inaccessible to those who fought for him and it is at this point where the rains started falling.”

Please name names, who, when and where. I am fairly certain none of that list would include Ruto or any representative from the region with a need for access. You, of course, will agree access to a person of Raila’s stature is not and cannot be easy; the man is so popular and in demand everyone wants to have access but unfortunately that’s just not possible, if he has to do his job effectively so unless you have evidence that Raila denied access to Ruto or any representative from the region, then I am afraid this remains a charge with no proof.

You say, “Akina Ruto started complaining, but instead of listening to them, he unleashed his foot soldiers (Olago, Miguna, Olweny etc) to undermine them (he saw an opportunity to get rid of his opponents within ODM) and this is where the pentagon died!!”

In fact, Raila heard and listened to Ruto’s whining and complaining to the point it became annoying, especially when Ruto started being openly disloyal and disrespectful of Raila and ODM. Raila did not send “foot soldiers” to undermine Ruto; rather, Ruto undermined himself by being shortsighted and allowing himself to be misled by people who could care less what happens to his political future, once they are done with him and that’s where he finds himself today and thus my appeal for him to come off his high horses and find a way to return to ODM which has much, much better prospects for him than anywhere else.

As for the Pentagon, the fact is this was an electioneering instrument; it ceased to exist on the day Raila signed the coalition government agreement. All pentagon members, including Ruto became part of the coalition government. There were no elections to run until the next circle so your attributing the “death” of the Pentagon to Ruto’s whining is actually factually incorrect and even if that were not the case, the death of an organization or structure due to his whining and complaining without basis in fact is not something Ruto should be proud of.

You say, “at this point, I think somebody must have been mis-advising him because he developed a very thick skin to criticisms from his supporters…”

First of all I assume you meant to claim that Raila developed a “thin” not “thick” skin and that being your charge, I and most people who have observed Raila for years will beg to differ and can tell you Raila is perhaps one individual with the thickest skins in Kenyan politics other than a number of fallen heroes including his own father. Indeed, he is so thick skinned, he has let Ruto stay in ODM to this day while he could have had him thrown out a long time ago, if he was that thin skinned.

You say, “this is where he could have arrested the dissent that was building up but instead of talking to the Kalenjin leaders (Ruto) he fueled it by trying bypass the elected leaders to work with losers (akina Sirma and Bett) which backfired badly!!

This charge is really an insult not only of Honorable Musa Sirma but the entire Kalenjin community. Ruto having become ridiculously silly and obstinate in his political antics, Raila had every right to find other leaders to work with in the region to further their interests Ruto obviously did not care about even as he was going around falsely claiming otherwise. I can go on and on here about the lies Ruto has told the people of Rift Valley about Raila in efforts to alienate them from him but that will take the whole day I don’t have the time for that other than to say, the Kalenjins are wiser than simply following Ruto when they see he is leading them to a bottomless abyss. Sirma, Langat, Bett, Ntimama and other leaders from the region who have stayed with Raila despite great pressure from Ruto’s lies are not “losers.” Quite the contrary, they are winners and will in the end save the region from Ruto’s efforts to sink it with him, if he does not reverse course quick and be saved as well.

You say,”Then came the calls (Ruto leading) for those who were arrested (most of them Kalenjins) to be released, and this is where another problem came up!!! it needed tact to navigate the situation as all being held at that time was his supporters but the PM also did the unexpected!! he called for those arrested to be jailed!!

You are either ignorant of the facts surrounding this issue or you have deliberately told a bold lie. Raila, as ODM Chairman, led, not Ruto, efforts to obtain amnesty for most of the individuals arrested following the violence on the factual basis they were just demonstrators, not killers and rapists and other criminals who committed criminal offenses even you would agree belong in jail. Please review the Waki Report and familiarize yourself with the facts and issues in this complex saga that is still unfolding. This report will also show you how wrong in the rest of your charges against Raila on PEV that I need not therefore respond to.

You say, “Then came the Mau!! here the PM failed miserably!! he was given a hot potato (bait) by his co-principal and he swallowed it line hook and sinker!! and this is one of those things which make me doubt the intelligence of the PM and his advisors!!

The Mau issue is yet another one of those false issues Ruto cleverly but wrongly manufactured along the way in his crusade against Raila that not only is hypocritical and pathetic but perhaps the single most important evidence of Ruto’s character flaw. To exploit an issue of such environmental and national significance for shortsighted political gain is abominable. Again, this is one of those issues I can spend a whole day analyzing, edifying and otherwise showing how Raila has been all right about it and Ruto and a few others completely culpably wrong but no need to; most people who know better than follow lies and distortions know the truth but if you care to fully understand why Raila has taken the stance he has in the national interest, just Google it and learn.

Perhaps, to put an exclamation point to this, let me answer the you ask,”why would you want to do something like that without looking at the politics involved? didn’t he remembered Kibaki handing over titles to the same people in 2005 during the referendum? and was it not Kibaki now telling him to lead eviction of the same people?

The answer: As he has proven over and over, Raila puts country first and politics second in addressing questions and national significance.  This is what a leader does. A political opportunist, on the other hand, puts politics first, country second, which is what you would have wanted Raila to do by your questions. Raila is beyond that and would not let politics dictate what he does when national interests are at stake. Had Raila ceded to Ruto’s lies and distortions in the fight to save the Mau forest, all Kenyans would have lost in a manner we could not possibly recover.

Thank God Raila won the battle and the Mau forest is saved for all to benefit.

BTW, do you stop to think if Raila is being blamed for things he has not done or has no control over, what do you think would happen to him if he abdicated on his responsibility to lead the fight against the destruction of the Mau forest when all the dozens of rivers and five lakes the forest feed dried up and there was no more water in the country from these sources?  Do you now get what Raila has to deal with? This is what makes him a true leader the country needs at this point in our history and is the reason I believe he will be so elected.

You say, “Now, did you expected Ruto to keep quite when all that was happening?

Yes. Ruto should have kept quiet and enjoyed the coattails of Raila’s victory at the elections rather than creating these phony issues, which have done nothing but adding to the distructions Raila has to deal with in addition to managing the affairs of the country as PM.

You say, “I think you can go ahead and deny all that but, the fact is, Raila failed the Kalenjins who voted for him almost to a man and he failed them big time!!”

I have not denied anything you have said; I have instead refuted everything you have alleged here.

You say, “there are better ways of doing things than the way the PM did without causing the fallout that followed his actions…”

There is nothing Raila could have done more than he has done and continues to do to prevent Ruto from engaging in the antics he is given it’s all about Ruto and if you call this a “fall-out” it’s a fallout without consquence to Raila’s likely election as our next president. Again, I as many others I know in ODM extend a welcome mart for Ruto to return to the party and if you follow any of my postings, I for one I have long since forgiven him for all his misdeeds pain he has caused the party. I think it was Indira Gandhi who said you cannot shake a hand with a clenched fist. ODM’s hand is wide open and extended the question is, is Ruto’s open or is it a clenched fist. I hope the former.

You say, “now I want you to go ahead and mention the things you believe Ruto did to Raila to an extend that he chose to bypassed him and worked with akina Sirma.”

He lies about Raila too much. By constantly lying to the people of Rift Valley, he showed contempt for them (hopefully not anymore). He has not once told the truth about his relationship with Raila since he decided for whatever reason to go against Raila and ODM. He was disloyal to Raila long before he even joined the party. He wrongly believes Raila owes him political patronage beyond what he received. He has not once cared about building the party from the day Raila entered into a coalition government agreement with Kibaki. He has since, in fact, worked to destroy the party but failed.

Again, all these notwithstanding, I still encourage him to return to ODM for his own benefit and the party will resume working with him to deliver on the promise given to his constituents that has so far been made difficult, if not impossible to achieve because of his antics.

Peace, Love and Unity.

Samuel N. Omwenga, Esq.

 
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Posted by on May 12, 2011 in Uncategorized

 

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