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Is HMK (Hon Martha Karua) Being Honest In Now Saying She Cannot Work With Raila?

In my series on HMK (Hon. Martha Karua), I have been examining this Kenyan politician and her quest for the presidency.

In Way To Go HMK (Hon Martha Karua), I complimented HMK for taking the position she could not work with Uhuru but expressed her willingness and readiness to work with Raila.

More specifically, it was noted in that blog HMK said at an interview she’ll not support Uhuru because she doesn’t share in his ideology and that neither would she support him merely because he is a fellow Kikuyu

In the same breath, she said she could see her supporting Raila because “he has a lot of history on reforms” even though she lamented his office was letting him down by tainting his image.

Meanwhile, it has in recent times been rumored that HMK is on the shortlist of those Raila is considering as running mate.

It is now being reported by the Standard that HMK is vehemently denying any such development regarding working with Raila.

“I do not share any values with the Prime Minister nor do I admire his brand of politics,” declared Karua whilst urging voters to send him home, the Standard reports.

This is an intellectually dishonest statement to say the least as shall be shown below.

Note also something very interesting here and really the focus of this blog:

HMK cites lack of shared values as her reason for not working with Raila, which is precisely the same reason she cited in not working with UK.

Now, the question and gaping hole for which would bury herself with an answer were a journalist interviewing her to do his or her job would be simply; “What values or ideology!?”

A quick check on HMK’s website tells us that she is predicating her campaign on the following “policy pillars:”

1. Erode the power of impunity through a new spirit of CONSTITUTIONALISM (emphasis here and below theirs).

2. Expand, improve and maintain transport, water, ict and energy INFRASTRUCTURE

3. Empower industries, innovators, traders and communities to create JOBS within a MORAL ECONOMY an economy that benefits all citizens especially the weak and vulnerable

4. Invest in our farmers, solve distribution problems and ensure sustainable national FOOD SECURITY

5. Pursue a cost-effective ‘Cradle-to-Grave’ UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE and a responsive, comprehensive EDUCATION

6. Prioritize and invest in national security , Secure Kenya’s regional advantage,and diaspora engagement through a ROBUST FOREIGN POLICY

Putting aside the question of whether this is an expression of ideology, it’s not, strictly speaking but let’s for the sake of argument assume it is; we’ll then have to compare her “ideology” with Raila’s ideology and vision expressed below to objectively assess whether or not HMK is genuine in offering lack of commonality in ideology as the reason she’s opting not to work with Raila.

I’ll let UK sycophants handle the same question for him, not to say I am one for Raila, which I am not despite the tired chant from the other side that I am.

Anyway, I digress; back to this analysis.

Here is what Raila has said is his vision–and I am only presenting part of it to make the point I do at the end:

Raila On health:

Therefore, there is great need to increase government spending on the health sector, introduce a national social health insurance scheme, improve hospital infrastructure, upgrade rural hospitals and build new health centres in remote areas by using public/private partnerships, boost the fight against HIV/Aids through education and counseling to promote behavioral change, continue to encourage population control strategies, expand safe motherhood programmes in all districts by ensuring that these centres have improved referral systems, communications and transportation facilities and achieve full TB, polio and measles immunization.

Raila On Security:

[Raila’s] plan is to dedicate increased resources to the law-enforcement arms of government, by modernizing their training, equipment and housing, improving their pay, and introducing life insurance, health insurance and a modern retirement scheme, maintain law and order and be tough on crime, by apprehending, trying and sentencing offenders, and tackling the causes of crime, recruit and train more police officers, ensure adequate resources for training, the purchase of modern communications equipment and transportation, and the forensic science capacity to investigate crime.

[He also] plans to engage people in active crime prevention through Neighborhood Watch schemes and community policing, seek to regulate the private security industry, so that it works in partnership with the police in the battle against crime, establish a national crime squad to provide an effective, nationally coordinated approach to organized crime and be tough on drug-abusers and drug-pushers, as drugs are root causes of crime, especially in urban areas.

Raila also plans to “strengthen and speed up the criminal justice system – justice delayed is justice denied, to both victim and offender, review sentencing policy and ensure that anyone convicted of a second serious sexual or violent crime gets an automatic life sentence, enforce the strictest firearms laws and ensure maximum vigilance at our borders and make use of our armed forces to prevent infiltration of our country by armed bandits. [He] plans to ensure support for victims of crime, especially those who have suffered rape and other sexual crimes.”

Raila On Corruption:

[Raila’s] plan is to review the functions and efficacy of the institutions set up by the government to fight corruption, use the criminal justice system to ensure conviction and appropriate punishment, with mandatory prison sentences, for those convicted on corruption charges, lead in the interest of the many, not the few, and build a future Kenya in which we all have a stake, restore trust in politics by discharging my duties through consultation and inclusivity, guarantee to build a Kenyan society based on fairness and equal opportunity, where merit comes before privilege, introduce Community Relations legislation to prohibit any discrimination on the basis of ethnicity and encourage the Kenyan diaspora to invest in Kenya and to take an interest in playing an active political role at home and abroad. I value their skills learnt abroad and we need to harness those for our common good.

Other things Raila hopes to do as president in fighting corruption, include “addressing the issues of ethnicity and inequality in our country as a topmost priority. [He] believes that the government, which represents all the people, not just one interest group, has an obligation to remove those obstacles that hinder individual achievement – obstacles emanating from tribe, gender or economic condition. [He] guarantee their removal by using anti-discrimination legislation similar to that which has been successfully employed in other countries. If we can consign tribalism to the Museum Of The Sins We Need Not Put Up With, let us do so in this generation, not the next.

On Food Security

Raila has a detailed plan to ensure food security for all you can read all about it here, ditto for improving the government’s fiscal management you can read all about it here as well as redistribution of resources and opportunity which you can also read all about it here.

When you compare these two policy and/or vision statements put forth by Prime Minister Raila and HMK, therefore NO difference in what HMK has as her “ideology” or policy when compared to what Raila has as his vision for the country; in fact, everything HMK has stated as her “policy pillars” is included in Raila’s vision, which is broader and this in turn means when HMK says she will not work with Raila because she does not share any “values with the Prime Minister,” she’s being both intellectually dishonest and disingenuous at best.

She may have a point, though, in saying she does not share in “Raila’s brand of politics.”

That brand does not call for her to be his running mate as many, including her, had hoped would be the case.

That, in the end, may be the reason and, in fact, is the reason HMK has crossed out Raila as someone she could work with if and when she folds her own quest for the presidency, which is all but certain to be at the of the first ballot, if there is Round 2, which many including yours truly doubt there will be one.

It may also be the working of a strategy to lurk nearby should the hyenas be forced to leave their kill.

That strategy will be a win win for Raila and ODM but, even more importantly, one can never say never especially when it comes to politics.

HMK could, indeed, take swallow her own words and agree to work with Raila anytime were she to deem that necessary in her own political interests.

Unlike all other politicians, Raila hardly ever closes his door even for those who have shut that door tight as they leave in a huff but he opens it right back up and keeps it wide open in the event they find no greener pastures elsewhere as they always don’t.

And many shall come back right through that door to the open and embracing arms of Raila and ODM.

More the reason I have been urging people to start practicing saying or getting used to hearing quite a bit of the majestic words, His Excellency Raila Amolo Odinga.

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Posted by on October 9, 2012 in Politics

 

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AG Githu Muigai Has Earned Worst Attorney General Title In Record Time–An Update

In AG Githu Muigai Has Earned Worst Attorney General Title In Record Time posted back in January this year and only a few months after he was appointed, I made the case why the AG had earned this dubious distinction.

A lot has happened since that if anything made that case even stronger and, as if not to disappoint in that assessment, it is now being reported by the Standard Online that the Muigai now wants the ICC cases to be postponed because going forward with the cases is going to be an inconvenience for Uhuru and Ruto in case we have a run-off.

Is this man really serious?

That reason is not only the lamest and laughable excuse one can give to defer any criminal case, let alone an ICC case it goes to show Muigai and those whose interests he is serving in raising this lame argument either don’t respect the law or they don’t have any respect for the victims of PEV either.

It’s perfectly okay for the AG to say things that are embarrassing to himself and those he represents locally but it’s quite another thing when he embarrasses us all on an international level such as what he has done here–yet again.

I am without words and so should everyone except to tell the AG to simply start wearing a bag over his head for I don’t know how he faces the public upon saying things like this.

But he again may not be fazed by what he has said and more so the reason he earns the title he has bestowed upon himself.

Here is an excerpt from the story.

“Government wants The Hague trials against two presidential candidates — Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto — postponed because of the likelihood of a run-off in the race to State House. Though it is not clear if the State will formally seek the delay through an appeal to the International Criminal Court, Attorney General Githu Muigai told an international forum on The Hague-based court that ICC should be flexible and sensitive to Kenya’s plea.”

“The Kenyan case is more complex because two suspects are presidential aspirants in next year’s polls,” Githu told the ICC conference in Nuremberg, Germany. Githu was making a presentation on Kenya’s efforts to complement ICC on prosecuting other perpetrators of the 2008 post-election chaos, on Saturday.”

Even our brothers and sisters who worship these men must surely agree this is got to be a joke.

Please don’t get me wrong; I am all for these two not to be prevented from vying for whatever office they fancy, including the presidency but this is way too embarrassing for the AG to make and one which is also clearly without any legal of factual basis.

 
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Posted by on October 7, 2012 in Law, Politics

 

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Is A Raila/Uhuru/Ruto Deal To Work Together In The Offing Hard To Believe As That May Be?

There have been rumors lately that Raila through emissaries is talking to his rivals, including his sworn enemies Uhuru and Ruto.

Neither Uhuru nor Ruto is confirming this but Raila’s people are all but confirming these talks are, indeed, going on.

In a story reported today in the Daily Nation, the two sides simultaneously continue to deny talks are taking place, on the part of UK and Ruto, while basically confirming they are on the part of ODM.

How is it possible that these two sides are saying what appears to be on its face two contradictory things?

Is either or both telling the truth?

A good assumption would be both are telling the truth; you would have to carefully parse the words and language they are using to figure why.

Basically, this is politics 101.

It is not in neither Uhuru nor Ruto’s interest to admit at this time of any talks, if any, for doing so would be as good as saying the deal is done politically speaking because those are words they cannot take back in case the deal doesn’t go through.

In other words, the two must remain steady with their message Raila is a bad man who they want to block from becoming president while quietly and behind the scenes anxiously and eagerly discussing with him the various scenarios they can all three make sure their individual interests are take care of post-election.

On the other hand, it’s in Raila or ODM’s interest to broadcast widely and vigorously any talks or even plans of talks going on.

Indeed, according to the DN, “an MP from Nyanza, however, confirmed that he attended one of the meetings between Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto in what he termed as a series of negotiations to bridge the gap between the two leaders.”

“I was at Mr Ruto’s home and I had never been there before. Our mission there was to engage him and to offer him Mr Odinga’s proposal,” he added, noting Ruto “insisted that the PM must address the ICC issue first.”

While denying talks are taking place, for their part, Ruto’s lieutenant Belgut MP Charles Keter said that “though URP is open to political negotiation with other political parties no meaningful talks had taken place between the Ruto and Mr Odinga camps.”

Noting what may be key in this whole mini-series, Keter added, ““We know that if Mr Odinga wants to talk to us he has to come alone and convince the party leadership and the Kalenjin nation. There is no need for him to send people to us.”

One would have to assume the modalities and mechanics of having that done may just be what’s on the table and that could mean a lot of things.

A lot but not too many not to find a common ground to make it happen.

Meanwhile, Uhuru’s denials are firm and unyielding: ““This [the rumors about talks] is an attempt by ODM to disrupt our focus from serious issues and campaigns,” said Mr Kenyatta’s spokesman Mr Munyori Buku, adding, “Mr Kenyatta has not and will never meet or talk to ODM on any alliances or political engagements.”

This unyielding, emphatic denial can only mean one thing; if talks are going on, they are likely more serious and even more so likely to yield results in the case between Raila and Ruto but less so with Uhuru who nonetheless must have his nose stuck in there between the two because any deal they make he must somehow be a part of it, given his twin interest with Ruto courtesy of ICC.

Which leads one to conclude a deal could be in the offing among these three that is unprecedented and too complex to even try and throw out there as a trial balloon.

I have an hunch I know what it could be strictly from putting two and two together but let me not put it out there for the same reasons other than to say if it is what I think it could be, it would not make sense to a lot of people until it is actually done and successfully implemented (read after the elections).

That being said, notwithstanding the denials, all one has to observe to know there is something interesting going even without knowing the behind the scenes goings on is to observe what these two, namely, UK and Ruto have or have not been saying about Raila lately.

Compare that to the dangerous rhetoric of earlier this year.

Something gave at some point and that is the high-handedness and a false sense of invincibility on both UK and Ruto ostensibly because (1) reality sank in as to the ICC, especially dire warnings of not just the two from the ICC but the government itself likely heard an earful from the US, UK and Denmark to the effect the countries will rally the UN to isolate Kenya were it to try and defy the ICC and (2) a realization Raila is, indeed, a mugumo tree nobody is going to bring down no matter how hard they try.

Uhuru and Ruto realize confident as they may publicly project toughness and ability to beat Raila, they privately know and would admit Raila has a better chance of beating either or both of them and no matter how small that chance is, only but a fool would not want to make sure were that to happen as its likely to, namely, Raila being reelected as president, at least they ought to be in a position not to be told the PM’s calendar is full through 4 years down the road when trying to secure an appointment to see him.

Neither is a fool so you might as well believe they are talking–just in case.

As note above, my hunch is if there are such a talks that result in a deal, it will not be something readily understandable or even readily observable but the net effect will be the same, namely, making sure all three men have their individual political and personal objectives met.

It’s worth noting Mudavadi does not feature in any of this analysis because it’s true he is politically finished.

Our next president is going to be either Raila or Uhuru or whoever Uhuru backs.

Ruto is very much relevant in influencing who that could be albeit not to the exclusion of others who may negate such influence.

My money is on Raila, even though I am not a betting man.

Kenyans will vindicate that belief and hope.

So will God.

Amen.

 
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Posted by on October 7, 2012 in Politics

 

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A Message To ODM MPs and Those Aspiring To Be

It is a well-known phenomenon, especially in Kenya that come election time, one is likely to see a flurry of defections from one party to another and even back to those people are defecting from.

This is because in other than very few cases, most politicians owe no permanent allegiance to their parties and certainly an alarming number have no loyalty at all or of the kind that can withstand money temptation to flee even their own families for some.

It is with this in mind that Uhuru and Ruto and more so Uhuru than Ruto are on overdrive to dish out as much cash as possible to snag as many ODM members as they can and aided by a willing media, try to project such buyouts as somehow something bad for ODM.

That’s not true!

Pouring money which many argue and rightly so is ill-gotten to begin with to have members of one party defect to your party is nothing to brag about.

Granted, such gimmicks are bound to work as against the unwary and easily gullible, which is most of the public that does not look behind the curtain to see the real naked truth and that is, virtually all these defections have everything to do with money than principle, ideology or anything one can even remotely say is a virtue.

There is one exception.

These are the defections from other parties to ODM.

This is because no one can argue that relatively broke Raila and ODM as compared to their well-oiled financially speaking opponents, those defecting to ODM are not doing so on account of being bought but do so because they simply recognize that ODM is the party that has any ideals worth joining efforts to champion and certainly its leader, Raila Amolo Odinga has been and continues to be at the forefront fighting for the common mwananchi by making sure impunity and corruption is brought under control, if not altogether eliminated.

Interestingly and this is really worth noting and goes to speak volumes as to this phenomena of party hopping as being a cash cow for most of these politicians, the MPs just passed, by unanimous consent! a law extending their party hopping potential through January 4, 2013 instead of a couple of days ago.

Do you hear the sound of cash flowing to the pockets of many of these MPs who are busy bargaining their souls away?

To be fair, there are a good number of MPs who may wish to have more time to put the figure in the air to see which direction the winds are blowing before they decide whether to remain in the parties that last sponsored them to Parliament or to bolt.

But there is no question a majority are largely looking at this strictly from a monetary point of view and which direction the wind is blowing is merely a guide as to which party to milk.

That being said, one can easily see what is emerging in 2012 through January 4, the new deadline these MPs have set for suitors to come and offer their best lines and that is, defections in 2013 is going to be a contest between those with a conscious and those without; a contest between those who would put their individual selves first or country and their constituents first; those intent on taking the country to a higher level above the usual siasa ya tumbo and those who would rather engage in just that, namely, siasa ya tumbo while the 2013 elections shall in turn be a choice between chatting a new path for our country more free from cheap politics, corruption and impunity and one where any or all of the three remain to reign supreme.

The choice is obvious as to which of these choices must prevail and I have faith in our people and more so in a good number of the politicians in key constituencies to resist the temptation of being wooed with this kind of unprincipled party hopping driven only by either greed or money.

So, to our esteemed ODM members of Parliament and those aspiring to be, stand firm and let not your hearts be troubled if you refuse the onslaught currently underway to buy your defection from ODM for all shall be okay in the end if you stand on the right side of what’s right under these circumstances and that is, simply not jump ship for the sake of money.

The party needs you.

The country needs the party.

Raila needs both you and the country and not that the other side doesn’t need you; they do but all for the wrong reasons and that’s simply to use you as a means of stopping or thwarting Raila’s efforts to ascend to the presidency for no reason other than the fact they just don’t want him to.

That’s not and never will it be a good reason to ever sell your soul.

 
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Posted by on October 7, 2012 in Politics

 

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The 3 Amigos UK, Ruto and Kalonzo So-Called “Fresh Unity Talks” Is Nothing But That: Just Talk

It’s being reported today in the Standard, among other media, that Uhuru, Ruto and Kalonzo, of the 3 Amigos, if you would, are in “fresh unity talks.”

This is a political tactic intended to test the resolve of Raila and ODM supporters, especially among the political class.

All what they are doing is to create the impression they have this unity of purpose and will be a shoe-in in efforts to have the wavering among Raila supporters buckle and jump ship.

It’s not a bad strategy, mind you but here are a few facts that would undo this strategy:

First, none among them, except Kalonzo who would accept any deal, even shoe shining the nominees shoes–none of them can agree to play second fiddle for the other and they have to do that because they have not and cannot have a mechanism to have one elected by suffrage in time to comply with the elections law.

Second, even if they were to somehow agree which one of them becomes the lesser man and field a trio team, it does not follow that the rest of their communities would rubber stamp such an alliance.

Remember, the reason we had PEV had very little to do with the elections outcome and everything to do with injustices that have not been addressed and neither are they going to be addressed merely by a ganging up of these three or more men.

Third, notwithstanding the alliance, Kenya is a large country with enough room for such an alliance to exist yet have Raila and ODM prevailing at the polls.

Finally, there is, of course the wild card and that is ICC.

Given all of these, I would urge the wavering Raila and ODM supporters to be circumspect and carefully weigh the pros and cons lest they become another Mudavadi.

 
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Posted by on October 5, 2012 in Politics

 

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The World’s Poorest President; Does He Have Anything In Common With Our Kenyan Leaders?

I saw this story on the Standard Online and the first thing that came to mind was, really?

The world’s poorest president? Is there such a thing? Who could it be?

Several other questions also came to mind such as, is it that possible or is this some kind of a joke? Isn’t the use of poorest and president together oxymoronic? And so on.

To cure my curiosity, I went straight to where one can find quick answers for questions like this, Wikipedia, and there I found the following entries about this president:

His mother’s family was composed of very poor Italian immigrants from Piemonte. His mother was born in Carmelo, where her parents, growers of vines, bought five acres in Colonia Estrella to cultivate vineyards. His father was a small farmer that was in bankruptcy shortly before his death in 1940, when Mujica was five.

That explains it, I said.

But, there was more,

His ‘folksy’ speaking style and manner is credited as part of his growing popularity since the late 1990s, especially among rural and poor sectors of the population.He has been variously described as an “antipolitician”[ and a man who “speaks the language of the people” while also receiving criticism for untimely or inappropriate remarks.

Then I thought, there is at least one thing he has in common with Obama and Raila: a man who speaks the language of the people, folksy style!

Is making untimely or inappropriate remarks something else he has in common with both of these gentlemen?

Sure; but what politician hasn’t made remarks that are untimely or inappropriate? I wondered.

None so I dug deeper into Wikipedia to see if I can find more similarities with this obviously admirable leader.

Then I found this one; it was actually right there at the beginning as I was hastily reading through the entries to find why this man could hold such an honorable title, or is it?

More on that later but, for now, here is what else I found as I was trying to find if there are any similarities with either of these leaders I was trying to compare him to, namely, Obama and Raila:

In the early 1960s, he joined the newly formed Tupamaros movement, an armed political group inspired by the Cuban revolution.[2] He participated in the 1969 brief takeover of Pando, a town close to Montevideo, and was later convicted by a military tribunal under the government of Jorge Pacheco Areco, who had suspended certain constitutional guarantees.[3][4] Mujica was captured by the authorities on four occasions, and he was among those political prisoners[5] who escaped Punta Carretas Prison in 1971. He was eventually re-apprehended in 1972, and was shot by the police six times. After the military coup in 1973, he was transferred to a military prison where he served 14 years.

Viola!; this man is no doubt more Raila than Obama, even though all three men are admirable leaders in their own right but its the simpleness, unorthodox, down to earth and ability to relate to ordinary folk qualities of this president that peaked my interest as I wondered if this is not exactly the kind of person we need in Kenya as our next leader.

Put aside for a moment the Minimum Qualities and Skills Our Next President In Kenya Must Possess, isn’t someone like this by definition going to be a leader who can truly break with the past and take the country in a new direction where leadership of all levels is not obsessed with either amassing the most wealth or dreaming about it at the expense of actually doing anything to help ordinary folk?

That being the case, who among those vying for the presidency now in Kenya fits that bill?

Is there any doubt that’s none other than Raila?

The answer has to be and must be in the affirmative if the one answering were to be honest.

When I saw this man driving himself in this beat up and old Volkswagen, with no security detail within site and actually almost all by himself in some not to great looking place, I immediately thought about one of President Obama’s motorcade, see link at end of this blog.

Definitely one thing this president doesn’t have in common with Obama.

What about Raila; what’s his motorcade like?

A quick check finds the following:

Well, not exactly a Volkswagen but the commonality is there and more: one car among a mass of people.

Add one more on the similarities column comparing this poorest president of the world with Obama and Raila.

And then it downed on me; Raila is a simple, down to earth leader who relates and understands the common needs of ordinary Kenyans and much like this poorest president of the world who donates 87% of his salary to charitable causes, Raila is no doubt the one who comes closest in comparison to him when it comes to charitable contribution and helping the needy among those vying for president in Kenya.

I can hear someone breaking glass over my saying this but it’s true as anyone who actually knows what the Odingas do for individuals they have helped over the decades but not necessarily for public show.

Perhaps they need to make that known but there is no question if you ask ordinary Kenyans who among those vying is the most compassionate and unselfish when it comes to caring about our country and its people, that choice will be hands down Raila.

He will also likely be the least wealthiest president when he completes his term as president, if Kenyans give him the nod again; he may not rank as the poorest president or even very close to this real holder of that title, but he embodies values that will surely put him as as close to him more than any of those vying ever would, other than those who have no chance.

The point being, let Kenyans choose someone to lead us who cares more about the common needs of the ordinary Kenyan than enriching himself or his cronies.

It’ll be a repetition to say that person is none other than Raila Amolo Odinga.

 
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Posted by on October 3, 2012 in Politics

 

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Raila Is Not Running Scared of the Politically Dead Mudavadi As Someone Claims On Capital FM Blog

In an article appearing on the Capital FM, blog and other Kenyan forums on the Internet, its author John Mbiuki attempts to make the case that Raila is somehow scared of Mudavadi vying for the presidency also.

As my response to Mbiuki below shows, this is not true at all.

Raila cannot be scared of someone who for all practical purposes and intent is politically dead for reason stated in Political Eulogy of Musalia Mudavadi

And now analysis of Mbiuki’s piece as addressed to him:

For easy following, Mbiuki’s claims and allegations are in italics.

ODM supremo Raila Odinga has let out just how seriously he is taking Musalia Mudavadi’s threat to his presidential ambitions by publicly pledging to support the latter if he won the race.

It doesn’t follow that if one says they’ll support an opponent if they win that therefore the one doing so thinks the opponent is a “serious threat;” one can say the same thing for any number of reasons even when they privately know or believe the opponent is a weakling who’ll never touch them, let alone defeat them.

His conciliatory speech to a funeral gathering in Western on Saturday came as further evidence that, with only five months to the General Election, Mudavadi has emerged as Raila’s waking nightmare in the race for the presidency.

Not necessarily. I and others keenly following these events know or can identify one good reason why Raila said what he said but not necessary to disclose as that will be counter-productive.

Let’s just say Mudavadi is not a “nightmare” in the race for Raila or ODM therefore Raila can’t be waking to such non-existent fact or thing.

That Raila considers Mudavadi a big threat to his presidential bid has been apparent ever since the former ODM comrades parted ways in April.

False. Some of us knew even long before Mudavadi started whining and finally left ODM that he was headed nowhere on his own, not even with the help of State House as is clearly evident and shall come to pass.

“What is new on the map is just how serious this threat is deemed to be, and the extent to which the Raila political machine is prepared to go to clip the Sabatia legislator’s wings.”

The Sabatia legislator has had no wings so there are no wings to clip, not by Raila or his political machine.

The man has literally been carried all his life under the wings of someone else.

Had he clung to Raila just a while longer until Raila at least served one term, he may have had a shot at finally flying on his own wings; he didn’t and his clinging to the State House/UK wings will soon prove to be a temporary thing as either or both let go and he comes crushing down, or the public simply rejects all of them leaving them nowhere to fly but south and under.

Raila’s statement was possibly the first time a senior ODM figure has admitted to the Mudavadi threat and was a departure from the party’s public dismissals of the UDF candidate as a small factor.

It’s a good thing you and others did not pick why Raila said what he did but I am sure he knows the message reached those it needed to but one would have to be politically adept to know that message was that Mudavadi is a threat to Raila or ODM, which he is not.

Privately, however, much thought and planning has gone into countering Mudavadi.

Nothing startling here; it’s prudent to plan how to counter all opponents, weak or strong so not sure what the point here is.

The ODM strategy, revealed by insiders last week, revolves around two key planks: Weakening the United Democratic Front candidate in his Western Kenya home base, and encouraging Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta to go the whole hog in the presidential race.”

Sounds like a good strategy to me.

“It is particularly interesting how, and why, the Raila machine is encouraging Uhuru to run. It all started with doctored opinion polls showing that a run-off between the ODM candidate and Uhuru would result in an almost equal share of votes while a run-off against Mudavadi would tilt the results in Raila’s favour.

What evidence do you have that the Synovate poll which I assume you reference was doctored?

“The truth of the matter, which has been confirmed by privately-conducted opinion polls for both ODM and TNA – the former recently commissioned a poll with a sample size of a whopping 47,000 respondents – is that Raila would easily beat Uhuru in a runoff while there is no possibility he can win against Mudavadi.”

First of all, no idea which “privately conducted poll” you’re talking about and, if it’s ODM’s as you seem to suggest, then your assertion fails on its own for one because you cannot be privy to a “privately conducted poll” which by definition only insiders are privy to such data but based on what you’re writing here, you’re no ODM insider and neither have you sourced your knowledge of this sensitive data.

“Raila’s strategy against Uhuru in a run-off, summarised in political circles as the “41 against 1 Plan”, and revolves around galvanizing all of Kenya against Uhuru on the basis that it is untenable for a Kikuyu to succeed another.”

This is a classic mindless assertion. Does it follow that if “political articles” have “summarised” [sic] Raila’s strategy against Uhuru to be “the 41 against 1 plan” that therefore this is Raila’s strategy?”

Raila has made it clear that he is pursuing a 47-County campaign strategy, which means there is no part of the country he rules in or out in as far as his campaign is concerned.

He’s certainly not pursuing no such thing as the “41 Against 1” strategy which has been demonstrably made known to have been a concoction within the Kikuyu community by enemies of Raila and ODM in ill-conceived efforts to whip the Kikuyu vote and more against Raila and ODM, not that it was necessary to do so.

“It is indeed very easy to whip up this mantra, even in the short time between the elections and the runoff.”

The only people whipping up this mantra are people like you, not Raila or ODM for precisely the same reason it was in 2007 but people are more wiser now and nonsense like this will not fly.

Raila will not be working so hard to woo the Kikuyu vote as he is if he were even remotely interested in such a divisive strategy and many of us who support him and believe in a united Kenya would not be a part of such a campaign strategy.

“On the other hand, a widely known fact variously confirmed by every opinion poll and national intelligence report, is that Mudavadi is the one candidate most widely accepted across Kenya.”

False. The more accurate and true statement is Mudavadi is the more accepted among the presidential contenders who see Raila as their roadblock to State House and ditto for most of the monied in the former Central or, if you will, the KSG schemers.

“If the Kamba cannot have Kalonzo, then they would rather have MM, as he is commonly called.”

False.

“If the Kikuyu cannot have Uhuru, they can live with MM.”

False.

There are other serious contenders and alternatives to UK in Kikuyuland such as Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth who most Kikuyus will vote for even if they are not on the ballot before they vote for MM.

If UK chickens out and does not run, the Kikuyu a good chunk of the Kikuyu vote will go to whoever he endorses but an equally impressive number will go to his or her opponent, which shall be none other than RAO.

Raila’s strategy is to simply peel off enough Kikuyu votes to make up for his losses elsewhere but all the same and consistent with his strategy to harvest impressive number of votes in all counties to be victorious in March 2013 and be sworn as our fourth president.

“The same goes for the Kalenjin, the Taita, the Meru and everyone else.”

So does my analysis above, namely, you take the kingpins in each of the communities out of the running, the alternative preference is not MM but a split all in favor of Raila.

“Indeed, a recent Synovate research showed Mudavadi coming a strong second in virtually all regions, including Central, Eastern and Rift Valley, other than Western, where he was the leading candidate.”

Again, no idea what survey you’re talking about but, the latest Synovate poll shows he only has a paltry 7% support nationwide, which means it’s irrelevant whether Mudavadi is first, second, third or tenth in regional polling for it’s the national poll that matters in the context of figuring who has a shot at meeting requisite carrying of 24 counties and winning 50% + 1 of the popular vote.

Right now, Mudavadi has no shot in that equation.

He only has a shot at shooting himself on the foot as he has all his life except this time he may have inflicted a mortal wound with his ill-advised departure from ODM to pursue a presidency under the doomed to fail State House/UK project he is.

“And this is the reality that is giving the Raila team sleepless nights.”

No it’s not.

“The first hurdle towards having Uhuru on the ballot comes from The Hague, that small town in the Netherlands where the TNA leader, along with William Ruto, Francis Muthaura and Joshua Sang, will be tried over the Post Election Violence of 2008.”

The Hague is no hurdle at all for either UK or Ruto to vie for the presidency.

This is because there is no law that prevents either from vying and neither does ICC have jurisdiction to say whether they should or not.

Will Kenya’s increasingly activist courts allow him to run while facing these serious criminal charges?”

Yes. Even activist courts must follow the law or at least purport to follow it.

In this case, there is no law any court can cite as the basis to hold that either UK or Ruto is barred from vying.

Indeed, even Chapter Six, which many cite in lay opinions doesn’t help because there is nothing in that Chapter that’s anywhere near on point even when subjected to tortured reading.

The economic crimes law obviously does not apply so count on either or both UK and Ruto vying unless either or both chose to withdraw for reasons other than being told so by the courts.

“Strategists at the Friends of Raila lobby group think there is a window of hope provided by Section 93 of the constitution which states that “A person is not disqualified (from contesting) under (2) unless all possibility of appeal or review of the relevant sentence or discussion has been exhausted.”

As a matter of correction, the correct section is Section 99(3), not 93.

That being said, the argument FORA and others including yours truly have made here on this is valid and sound because this is part of what is called due process, which in turn is a part of the rule of law maxim.

“This, they argue, gives some hope against the stringent demands of Chapter 6, the Leadership and Integrity chapter that many thought could be used to keep Uhuru from the ballot.”

It’s not that FORA “hopes” that Section 99(3) applies to prevent a court from finding that neither UK nor Ruto can vie; it is actually the case and the law that that section stands in the way of application of both Article 99 and Chapter Six of the Constitution under these circumstances.

“The Raila plan has also resulted in the flooding of the Western region with Cabinet positions in a bid to strengthen the anti-MM frontline troops, but this has not been without its own problems.”

Can one be more liberal in the use of adjectives; “flooding?!

Raila merely replaced Cabinet positions his party was entitled to; when does that become “flooding?!”

“Although the recent appointments saw the number and profile of Luhya ministers increase, many people were peeved that the Banyala community got the bulk of the seats. Alfred Khang’ati and Ababu Namwamba are Banyala, as is Minister Fred Gumo.”

“Why were Alfred Sambu and Sospeter Ojaamong overlooked?”

I shudder to address this but let me just say I hope and pray there will come a time in Kenya where things are not always seen from a tribal or ethnic prism; we’ve got to learn and more importantly, we must teach our people to accept the reality of the new constitution that appointments must and shall be on the basis of merit with regional, not ethnic balance in mind.

One cannot, obviously, discriminate against another on the basis of ethnicity, tribe, gender or any of the other protected classes.

It therefore goes without saying even though political calculation had to be and must be out of necessity in the mix in these considerations, those whining about these appointments on the basis of what you claim are simply behind the times and need to catch up with where the rest of the country is headed.

“A major plank in Raila’s Western Kenya strategy lies in Busia, where he starts with a slight advantage considering that more than 10 percent of the population comprises Luos. That easily explains Namwamba and Otuoma’s good fortunes. They are both from Busia.”

At the end of the day, people with ears and eyes on the ground tell us Raila stand to harvest nearly half, if not slightly more of the Luhya vote notwithstanding Mudavadi’s comatose performance there, let alone Wamalwa who is better advised to align with Raila.

“Then enters presidential aspirant [b]Cyrus Jirongo[/b]. In an obvious throwback to the famous Moi tactics of splitting the enemy lines, Raila went ahead and sponsored Jirongo’s presidential bid, and did not even pretend he wasn’t involved. The launch, attended by key allies such as Namwamba, is intended to crowd the space for Mudavadi to weaken his home base.”

Perfectly acceptable counter-strategy, given the other side’s doing the same thing in their own KSG featuring the Mudavadi project.

“Raila is also understood to have sponsored [b]Charity Ngilu’s[/b] candidature in a bid to weaken Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka in Ukambani.”

Not true but when has truth been in the way of conspiracy theorism?

Not surprisingly, whereas Mudavadi had to vacate his Local Government portfolio when he declared his candidature, Ngilu does not have to do the same. No one in ODM is asking her to do so.”

Get your facts straight; Mudavadi resigned as minister because he left ODM to join UDF, not because he is running for president.

Since you bring this up, why is Mudavadi clinging to DPM position when there is clearly no legal basis for him to do so?

“Jirongo’s bid appears to have fallen flat and has had absolutely no effect in the Western Kenya politics.”

No argument there.

“Raila’s challenge in this election is unique.”

So is everybody’s who is running.

“Whereas in the past he has played the reformer card, pegged around the quest for a new constitution, that is no longer a valid card since the new laws are now with us. So what is his compelling agenda this time round?”

Fully implementing the law but his opponents want to scuttle it.

“For other contenders particularly Uhuru and Ruto, this election is about only one issue: the ICC.”

True but not entirely true.

Any of these individuals like any politician would like and do hope to be president for the sake of being president.

They have no agenda for the country, alright, but they can and would like to be elected president beyond ICC consideration.

“They would like the voting to be divided along the lines of who wants the four PEV suspects hanged in Europe, and who is willing to put up a fight for them.”

If you casually follow what’s going on, you’ll note none of the politicians vying, including Raila, are calling for any of these individuals to be hanged at the Hague.

This was a lie propagated by these fellows earlier on this year but was rejected by most Kenyans so they abandoned it.

It would be to Raila’s advantage if they try to run on the same lie because there is an effective way to counter it beyond what has been done.

“The battle lines are clear here. While Raila has stated several times that the four would be behind bars if it were up to him,”

This is a gross misrepresentation at best and a bold lie at worst.

Raila has never said such a thing.

He did draw a comparison that if these ICC suspects were being charged for murder under Kenyan law, they’ll be behind bars awaiting trial.

That’s a fact, not wishing that someone were behind bars if it was up-to Raila.

Remember the context in which this was said was when these ICC suspects were going around the country conducting the so-called “prayer rallies” which were anything but; they were, in fact, efforts to saw seeds of discord they wisely abandoned upon Raila and others calling them out, including the ICC that made it known they risked being arrested for violating their conditions of release.

“Kalonzo has been equally unequivocal in his campaign for the four not to go to the Hague, even though many have doubted his real intentions.”

Does anyone really care what Kalonzo says or does?

“Indeed, Kalonzo’s willingness to fight the Hague monster partly explains why Ruto appears to give him his time of day.”

Not true.

See the immediately above.

“There were reports last week that the two, along with APK’s Kiraitu Murungi, who is fed up with Uhuru’s increasingly overconfident and often arrogant stance, were about to agree to a pre-election pact.

Nothing wrong with that.

If Kalonzo brings Raila only his one vote, that might as well be the +1 vote Raila needs to clinch the presidency.

If he doesn’t join Raila, the vote can either be discounted or replaced by another voter.

 “The Raila brigade is not particularly worried about Kalonzo, even with Ruto and Kiraitu on his side: He is considered to be the wimp of Kenya political class and unlikely to reach the run-off stage.”

True.

“On the other hand Mudavadi’s statements during his recent US tour in response to reporters’ questions clearly defined his position on the issue.”

“In his clearest stand yet on the Hague trials he said: ‘We killed each other in 2008. Women were raped; children were molested. It would be cowardly to wish this away. We must accept responsibility collectively. The nation is guilty. To prosecute four people for the sins of 40 million people is therefore preposterous. The four carry our national shame, but they must not carry our national guilt. We must all own up.‘”

This is a politically inept statement for a number of reasons:

First, it confirms that Mudavadi is a State House/UK project.

Having been mum all these years the ICC cases have been brewing, he cannot suddenly start blabbing about it now.

The only and obvious reason he would do so and is doing so is simply to align himself with the State House/UK interests when it comes to the ICC.

Second, it’s is simply not the case that all Kenyans are responsible for the deadly violence that took place in early 2008.

I know I was not and so were not most Kenyans.

The PEV was perpetuated by individuals representing a tiny portion of the population and the ICC has chosen charge those it found to be the most responsible to account for the violence.

This claim by Mudavadi is not clever because it exposes Mudavadi as one willing to say or do anything for the sake of those who are propping him up for the presidency, which in turn confirms what others observe and say that he is not his own man.

Third, because Mudavadi has condemned both the innocent and the guilty of the crimes that took place in 2008, he can now forget getting any votes from the innocent on this account, who are, in fact, nearly everyone.

What Mudavadi has done here is no different from what Mitt Romney, the man now with an uphill task to beat President Obama in the run for the US presidency, thanks in part for his recently discovered video in which he is surreptitiously recorded dismissing half of America as basically a bunch of freeloaders.

Just as half of those Americans Mitt derided will now not vote for him for sure, even if most of them were not going to vote for him, anyway, so too will Mudavadi not get the votes of those he now accuses to be murderers, rapists and looters when they are not and never have been.

Finally, by this assertion, Mudavadi clearly shows that he doesn’t understand the rule of law maxim and holding people responsible for actions committed that are against society rules.

Even in a situation where there is mass violations of the law, such as in riots where property is destroyed or people injured, etc, it’s imprudent and impractical to haul everyone to court.

Rather, the police zero-in on the most culpable and arrest them while the rest of the rioters are chased away or simply take off.

True in that case everyone on the streets rioting can be said to have been collectively responsible for the damage of property or injury to others that takes place but it doesn’t follow that therefore we either arrest and charge all of them or do nothing.

That logic doesn’t fly at all and thus the reason this assertion by Mudavadi is (let me not use a word that comes to mind) out of respect for the people of Sabatia.

“Political observers see the race for the presidency taking a more definite shape in the next one month or so as the flurry of defections and realignments is concluded. [color=Red][b]Raila’s claims that this is going to be a two-horse race, between him and Uhuru, is seen by observers as another effort to discourage Mudavadi and cheer Uhuru on.

The fact is, this is a race between two opponents: Raila v Everyone Else (EE).

Someone shall be declared winner come March 4 and the money is on that person being Raila.

Whether this strategy works or not remains to be seen.”

As noted above, the battle is between Raila and EE.

Besides, he’s on the record saying the more the merrier.

May the best candidate win.

His Excellency President Raila Amolo Odinga.

Let’s practice these majestic words, shall we?

 
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Posted by on October 3, 2012 in Politics

 

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