In response to my Star column this weekend Ruto Cannot Make Up With Uhuru, But Can with Raila, several comments have been made in various platforms the column appears but I have decided to post a detailed response here to one that appears in the Star itself for the benefit of those who may have the same mistaken beliefs or notions.
The comments are addressed to the individual who posted the comment so I am addressing my response to him or her (their identity is hidden):
You say, “At least you acknowledge he cannot win on his own.”
I did but I am sure not for the same reasons you have in mind. My position is it is possible the system can yet again thuggishly rig-out Raila or Ruto, something they cannot dare do if the two are working together—and that’s my point for the whole argument.
You seem to think Raila cannot win on his own at the ballot and that’s just not true for he can and will, were he to vie with or without Ruto’s backing.
You say, “Still, if the ‘system’ is so powerful, notwithstanding the false claim that it ‘loosened the noose on democracy’ in 2002, why did the same ‘system’ fail to assert and impose Kibaki’s disputed election victory in 2007”
It is not false that the system loosened the noose on democracy in 2002; as I have told others in denial about this or simply not aware, the system considered 2002 as an inhouse dispute as to who should have the presidency so it did NOT matter to them diddly-squat who as to between Kibaki and Uhuru got the presidency; however, were Raila to be the opposition candidate, we would have had Uhuru as president in 2002, not when the system gave it to him in 2013.
That being said, I am also on record having said neither Uhuru nor Raila won the requisite 50%+1 in 2013 and had a re-run been ordered as it should have, Uhuru would have won clean against Raila. Uhuru came so close to Raila’s margins they decided to rig him in in Round I, rather than wait to win clean in Round II.
Those are facts and I know because I was there and knew exactly what happened or what was happening in both camps. For those who follow my blog, this is the election I had a meeting with now Jubilee Vice-Chairman David Murathe the Friday before that Monday’s election and what he told me has always shaped how I analyze Jubilee politics.
You say, “[the system failed] to impose Mudavadi, its preferred candidate, in 2012.”
No need to do a mademoni analysis here suffice to say the system did not fail in anything to do with Mudavadi, who they briefly toyed with having him vie instead of Uhuru but decided to stay with the latter.
Had they stayed with Mudavadi, Raila would have won a landslide bigger than 2007, making it impossible to rig him out for fear of ICC.
Again, they rigged him out against Uhuru because they were close enough.
You say, “the system failed] to assert and impose Uhuru’s August 2017 election which was nullified??”
These are things I have written a dozen legal memorandum about shared privately with those shared with and will publish in my memoirs but, in a nutshell, the reason the system did not dare ignore the Supreme Court’s historic decision is something I and anyone who follows these things closely knows or should know.
Suffice to say there was no chance in hell they were going to take that risk and thus what we had as the outcome.
You say, “The FACTS simply don’t support your bogus ‘system’ argument.”
I am sure you’ve seen by now there is nothing bogus about what I say regarding the system; if not, you’re in denial in which case I cannot help any further.
You say, “The ‘system’ can’t stand up to People power.”
Oh yes they do and always have except in 2002, which I say they heeded to popular vote because the victor was someone they did not mind at all taking over from Moi. In 2007, 2013 and 2017, they give “people power” the middle finger and will do so again with glee in 2022, unless things unfold a certain way, including possibly the scenario I describe in the column.
You say, “…and the winner in 2022 will be the one with the largest coalition of tribal support, simple as that, as it has always been.”
You’re making my point; coalitions win and have won at least 3 times in recent times but only once (2002) did their candidate get sworn in as president.
The only coalition that will beat the system hands-down this time around is one of Raila backed by Ruto.
Raila backed by Uhuru can also win with a split of Gema vote but even in that scenario, the system can still rig in someone else who most certainly will be in the running if the two gentlemen vie separately, unless the system is united in backing Raila.
In the latter case, Raila is sworn as president regardless of what happens at the polls.
Ruto, of course, is out of the question and if he vies and Raila vies, the system’s candidate will be our next president—unless the vote is so overwhelming for one as to not to try and rig, which is doubtful as this will be a three-way race and murky enough for them to steal yet again.
For the avoidance of doubt, if Raila choses not to vie and joins Uhuru in backing someone else, that someone else will win in a landslide and the system cannot do anything wapende wasipende.
In this scenario, the candidate, of course, cannot be a Kikuyu and neither can he be from RV; who that will be is something I believe nobody knows at this time as each player is playing their Option A cards.
Note I am being specific in saying the compromise candidate cannot be a Kikuyu, leaving open the possibility it can be someone other than a Kikuyu from Mt Kenya region with Raila’s blessing.
Again, this is Option C for Raila and not an option for Ruto, unless the candidate is Raila, in which case he (Raila) won’t be a compromise but a practical candidate to serve the tripartite interests (Uhuru, the System–though reluctantly and Ruto).
Right now we are where all parties are playing their Option A cards, and each side is hiding their ace cards though Raila may put his on the table very soon and upend things yet again unless some people decide to play nice.
Uhuru is not in that equation and will be just fine how the cards are played out one way or another and if given a choice between backing Raila or Ruto, he will no question back Raila but we are not there yet.
That, my fellow Kenyans, is what is at stake even as I am typing this so expect a lot of movement of these Chess pieces for a winning strategy to emerge notwithstanding BBI, which everyone can use to their advantage.