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Mudavadi Is Not Lying, But Is Wrong Nonetheless

Mudavadi and Raila(2)

In Why Is Mudavadi Lying About the Handshake?, I posed the question and provided analysis as to why he is. I now scale this back to say what Mudavadi said about the handshake coming to being because of visa cancellation threats is not a lie; rather, Mudavadi reached an erroneous conclusion from what is generally known but went further than that to posit an explanation that is simply not true.

In order to understand why I am saying this, you need to read and understand what I said in Ruto Changes Tactics at Chatham House But, Will That Be Enough?

Here’s an excerpt:

So much so such that when the history books are written, it will be clear we have the handshake, yes, because of Raila’s humility and Uhuru recognition it was time, but even more importantly because of what Chatham House did or more specifically, how they brought about the outcome.

The outcome was an end by itself, rather, a means to an end.

What’s that end?

That’s where it becomes very interesting and the reason why what Ruto said at Chatham House is even more riveting: Revealing Chatham House’s hand in shaping our current and near future politics.

In other words, the roadmap having been placed on the table for everyone to follow for violence-free elections in 2022 and onwards—with a price to pay if they don’t, then one has no choice but to follow it.

Question is, how does Ruto play this hand, knowing the political axes are out to politically chop him? It’s tricky but there’s no doubt he took good notes from Chatham House and will try to follow the script.

Except in that he may find himself written off the play script by those cunning enough to do so without rattling snakes at Chatham House.

End quote.

I’ll soon elaborate on this and as it relates to NASA.

A Musing: Working practically around the clock in the lead-up to the 2017 elections, and especially right after the nullified elections, a Party of Two churned one strategy paper after another and coordinated intelligence from various sources, including Washington.

The duo constituted yours truly and someone very close to Raila and someone very close to Mudavadi as well as several ODM luminaries such that it would be easy to offer or crystalize strategy coming from any direction within the inner circles.

Neither of us were ever at the Secretariat but had someone there we liaised with as necessary. There was also a volunteer there who came from the US to help out and I must say one of the many unsung heroes and heroines in our continued quest to make our beloved Kenya a better country.

She doesn’t know but I fully intend to make sure she’s recognized and appreciated for her efforts, once we get through what we must now–and that is BBI implementation via referendum.

Meanwhile, and as it relates to my good friend I continue to closely work with, I am watching Mudavadi’s moves and curious to know which side my colleague will come down on were Mudavadi to bolt Raila again.

The principled person I am, it’s Raila through and through for me.

I believe my friend would remain with Raila as well for doing otherwise may not be in his interest–or wise, given the trajectory of things presently and to the future.

 
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Posted by on October 4, 2019 in Politics

 

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Why Is Mudavadi Lying About the Handshake?

Uhuru and Raila(2)

According to the Standard, Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi now claims the Handshake between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition leader Raila Odinga was born out of blackmail.

Mr Mudavadi told a gathering of Kenyans in the diaspora that some Western countries threatened to cancel visas for Opposition leaders and their associates unless they entered into a political deal.

Without disclosing the Western countries, Mudavadi said the visa bans were targeting opposition leaders, their spouses, children, and their relatives.

“The secret is that slowly visas were being cancelled. And when Visas are cancelled, they don’t just cancel yours alone. They cancel yours, that of your wife, children, and relatives,” he said.

Addressing a meeting at Muungano SDA Church in New Jersey on Tuesday evening, the ANC leader said the handshake was prescribed a condition to regain the visas

“I want you to go home knowing that I, Musalia, do not believe in cheating you. I believe in telling you the truth. So what gave birth to a handshake is personal survival rather than patriotism.”

Soon or later, Mudavadi said the country will discover the swearing-in of Raila as people’s president and the consequential circumstances were not based on patriotism, but were based on personal survival.

“I am speaking to my fellow Kenyans and I want to deliver some hard truths because, for too long, propaganda is spread and we get carried away,” Mudavadi said.

The Standard concludes its story reminding us Mudavadi and his co-principals Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang’ula were left out of the swearing in of Raila, with the ANC leader saying they were opposed to the event anyway.

Mudavadi has clearly made up a story about Uhuru and Raila’s being threatened with cancellation of their visas along with those of their relatives if they did not agree to the handshake. Had he said the two were leaned on by the West to enter into an agreement on the way forward–which I have hinted and later explicitly stated that it happened, then no one would have any qualms about that.

Instead, what Mudavadi has done is stated an untruth about threats of visa cancellation as truth. At a very basic level, all you have to know is for people like Uhuru and Raila cancellation of visas means nothing, especially where there is no legally recognized basis to cancel or deny either a visa.

Here’s the $6 dollar question: Why is Mudavadi lying about this?

The short answer is something you should surmise from the value of the question itself: $6 instead of the proverbial $60 million.

In other words, what Mudavadi is up-to, or why he is peddling this lie is inconsequential because he does not factor in the politics of 2022, from Baba’s perspective–and therefore Uhuru and Baba’s perspective pursuant to the handshake.

That being said, there are only two plausible reasons I can see why Mudavadi is doing this second attempt at political suicide:

First, Mudavadi has figured he won’t factor as a major player in the new alliance certain to emerge involving Raila and Kieleweke.

Accordingly, what Mudavadi deems apt from his ill-advised position, is to tear off and align with Ruto with his rudderless Tangatanga boat headed anywhere but State House.

It’s an ill-advised move, but Mudavadi has proven time and again he is not incapable of making such moves.

Second, it may just be the case, as in 2013, someone has misled Mudavadi to believe he can be an alternative this time to BOTH Raila and Ruto.

While theoretically possible, it’s a pipedream on his part, or a serious political miscalculation of Uhuru and Raila’s resolve on the handshake on the part of whoever else who may be misleading Mudavadi as such on that.

In the Political Eulogy of Musalia Mudavadi, a column I penned and had published by the Star on September 29, 2012 but no longer online now, I made the case why Mudavadi was making a mistake to leave Raila, who had already brought him back from the political dead. That piece was so truthfully biting, I received death threats over it.

No need to write another one other than to tell our brother Mudavadi to not make the same mistake, again. Yes, there may not be room for him as DPM but that doesn’t mean he can’t be factored in the new government structure in some other role or capacity.

But, if Mudavadi wishes to instead join Ruto as Deputy Leader of the Opposition, that seems to me going several steps backwards but that’s his prerogative.

Whatever you do, though, Mr. Mudavadi, just stick to facts instead of making them up as you have in this case.

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted by on October 3, 2019 in Politics, Uncategorized

 

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Of Raila, MOUs and NASA Coalition

NASA Coalition(1)

A netter posted this in one of the forums I belong:

Benji Ndolo (@BenjiNdolo) tweeted at 5:06 AM on Tue, Aug 20, 2019:
I’m just curious eh, how is it possible for @RailaOdinga to run for President when he has a signed pact with H.E Kalonzo which was deposited with the Registrar of Political Parties a 2nd time? Kenyans we must be honest or nothing will ever work.
(https://twitter.com/BenjiNdolo/status/1163738956384690177?s=03)

My response:

Because the contract has a force majeure provision that cancels the MoU owing to yet again another stolen and this time nullified elections. Kalonzo, a lawyer, knows this that is why you won’t hear him raise it as an issue unless he wants to join the ignorant like this one or pretend to be.

His response:

Thank you SO for the explanation. I see folks losing trust over these arrangements. Add Uhuru move and will see why it will be difficult to trust these politicians.

My response:

Making political deals and pacts is nothing new as its been around for as long as there has been politics; what is new since Kibaki days, is flagrantly shredding MoUs with impunity as was the case in Kibaki’s case. Less so in Uhuru v MM. The MoU with NASA does not fit the reneging model, definitely not as flagrant. So, there will continue to be deals like this and I have no doubt one is being negotiated right now between and among the key players.

His response:

The Kibaki one was unfair and mean. That does not make other deal-breaking OK. It only makes harder for other candidates to accept such deals. The also put communities at logger’s head as Uhuru is now doing to Kikuyus in RV. I still hope that Kikuyus stick with Ruto and reject Uhuru so that other can learn a lesson. I totally agree with you on Kalonzo and Raila. Raila did not win unless the agreement was to stick together come rain or shine. For Uhuru and Ruto, that does hold water. Uhuru and Kibaki sail in the same boat. Dishonest souls who must be condemned. If Uhuru is man enough, his word of sticking with Ruto after 10 years should stay. If the argument is that Ruto is corrupt, why not give us the evidence.

I dont think Ruto will make a good leader but what Uhuru has done to him must be condemned. The Kikuyus will continue to look very bad after the 2002, 2013 and 2017 conmanship. He is being called in Mt. Kenya a ngiri which forgets very fast. Believe, Uhuru will face a very hard time if abandons Ruto for Raila. If they stick to referendum and peace and Uhuru keeps off, that will be fine enough. If Uhuru goes to campaign for Raila in 2022, it will not go down well in Mt. Kenya for Uhuru. He will face opposition. It will be worse in the diaspora.

Right now folks are speaking ill of Uhuru and the best way to explain it are the songs below by Peter Kigia (Uhuru kumi, Ruto Kumi) and by late John De’mathew (We pay the debt first).

I am for honesty and not the Uhuru conmanship which started with Kibaki. Folks are saying Uhuru is selling fear.

My response:

You’re likely not to see this in the larger media but let me break it down for you and others here like this:

Ruto’s problems go far beyond whatever agreement he had between he and Uhuru. I can tell you without fear of contradiction that there are enough powerful individuals who knew from the day they lured Ruto to join Uhuru that he will never be allowed to become president of the country primarily because if he does, some people will see cha mtema kuni as never even imagined before. One of his minions inadvertently (moment of excitement) let the cat out of the bag in showing the true character of who you will have running the country and the extent of their shrewdness were Ruto to be president. Let me just leave it there.

Remember, the powerful people I am talking about are not just players in the game; they are the very ground the game is played on without which there is no game.

So, one can sob and wail Uhuru is walking away from his word, but those who matter and were instrumental in putting Uhuru in office to begin with are not losing any sleep over it, and that, btw, includes Uhuru who has his whole set of issues with Ruto not the least of which is Ruto’s conduct and things he said during their first term.

Some of these like rigging his people into elective office at the expense of Uhuru and his supporters is public information we have shared. But there is more and this one I’ll leave it there as well.

 
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Posted by on August 21, 2019 in Politics

 

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Dishonest And/Or Misleading CNN Headlines and Shoddy Reporting About Elections in Kenya

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CNN Interview with John Kerry, Co-Chair of Carter Center Observer Group

This is why people hate and others simply don’t trust the media; what the CNN headline in the link above is blurting out is not what the former US Secretary said as co-Chair of the kCenter for Democracy observer group in Kenya monitoring the elections which were held there on Tusday.

Worse, the headline is contradicted by the video clip in the story in which Kerry said the elections were free and peaceful and that IEBC, the body charged with the responsibility to conduct elections in Kenya, did a good job, which is true and we’re here talking about the mechanics and logistics of conducting elections such as making sure polling stations are opened in time, there are sufficient ballots in each location, people are orderly in line, etc.

However; nowhere in that clip or elsewhere has Kerry said the elections were not rigged!

Neither does Kerry address anything in substance about what Raila said, including his claim the IEBC system was rigged–obviously contrary to what the headline blurts.

From what I can tell, either a very careless and shoddy reporter filed this report or a dishonest reporter did question is, neither of which is good for an organization such as CNN, question is why the dishonesty?

If it’s not dishonesty, then its inexcusable shoddiness that has caused anxiety and sent rumor mongers on overdrive peddling lies that Kerry said there’s no rigging and some even gone further to peddle the lie that Kerry has endorsed Uhuru, something he couldn’t do and cannot do regardless before the results are officially announced on then only if the entire observation team from the US agrees with the endorsement if Uhuru wins but will do exactly the same thing if Raila wins.

Instead, what he said is what we all know and have been saying and that is, even though the voting was peaceful and credible, it now remains to be seen whether the counting, tallying and announcement of the presidential election is equally credible.

The diplomat he is, Kerry also said the same thing one had to expect him to say and that is, if there’s evidence of rigging, including evidence the results announced don’t reflect votes legitimately cast, counted and reported from each polling station, let the aggrieved (he did not mention Raila by name) go to Court and present the evidence.

That’s a far cry from what the headline screams CNN must be called out for this misleading and shoddy reporting.

I have copied their Newsroom this post I encourage you to do the same thing or let them know in your own words.

Bottom line is, we won’t know anything about the outcome of this election and which direction things go until two things happen: (1) IEBC announces the presidential results and (2) the international groups make public their findings if they agree or disagree with the IEBC decision.

If the results are Raila won, he’s our next president.

If the results are Uhuru won, then what Raila and NASA do and their prospects of success will largely be influenced by what the observer groups say; if the observer groups agree Uhuru won–even with an acknowledgement of some stealing, then it really doesn’t matter what Raila and NASA do.

If, on the other hand, the observer group disagrees with IEBC and tables its own evidence of massive rigging, which corroborates Raila and NASA’s evidence, then Raila will head to Court with very high prospects of prevailing this time.

More on this if time allows

 
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Posted by on August 10, 2017 in Politics

 

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My Thoughts and Analysis of Where Things Stand Today with Elections 2017 and Potential Outcome

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Forms 34A & B’s are currently being scrutinized at the National Tallying Center.

The way I see it, there are 3 outcomes I see out of Bomas of which only 1 is good for Raila and a second only partially good:

(1) All 34A&B’s are genuine and the tally gives Raila a win above the threshold of 50%+1 (2) Some of the 34A & B’s are not genuine and the tally gives Uhuru a win above the requisite 50%+1 but those come from places where we didn’t have agents or are “inconsequential” in the larger scope of things and (3) significant number of 34A & B’s are outright fraudulent and tilt the scales in favor of Uhuru.

IEBC declares Raila winner in the first scenario but declares Uhuru in the second and third scenarios.

Raila petitions the Supreme Court in both cases (2&3) loses in #2 and gets relief in 3 only if the evidence is clear and inescapable IEBC has perpetuated a fraud in declaring winner based on fraudulent Form A&Bs but this will largely depend on how significant the “significant” number is, how widespread and whether Raila had agents in those areas. If it’s significant and widespread but Raila didn’t have agents there, the Court will dismiss the petition and Uhuru will be sworn as president.

If they find otherwise, the petition will be granted and Raila will be president.

If there’s outbreak of violence following dismissal of Raila’s petition, then we’ll have a situation akin to 2008 where Uhuru is forced or voluntarily reaches out to NASA to negotiate a deal and form a coalition government but this option will depend on on how widespread, violent and deadly the uprising is.

A credible source in Jubilee tells me there’s already a pre-determined number of destruction of property and deaths Jubilee will let happen before coming to the table to negotiate a coalition government.

The same source also tells me key string pullers in Jubilee have no interest and are adamant about one thing should this be the case, namely, being forced to form a coalition government and that is, Raila cannot be part of that government; they would only take Mudavadi and Kalonzo.

Which one of these options comes to pass? We’ll know at the conclusion of the Bomas exercise which should be later today or tomorrow for sure.

One thing the country can breath a sigh of relief is we’ve avoided the “ICC written all over its face option” I reported Uhuruto were grappling with so the wiser men and women prevailed on that leading to where we are today.

This reaffirms what some of us have known all along and that is, Uhuruto know no presidency is worth being hauled to ICC; good for them, good for the country.

The other two options I posted yesterday are in play and one is reflected in the above 3 potential outcomes.

Let’s continue praying for peace in the country.

 
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Posted by on August 10, 2017 in Politics

 

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The Presidential Tally IEBC Is Announcing Is A Sham Engineered by Jubilee Chefs and Schemers

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IEBC is purporting to announce presidential results but what they’ve put out there is nothing but a sham.
In sum, Uhuru, who rigged himself into office with the help of Kibaki, and his henchmen used murdered IEBC ICT Manager’s password to access the voter system upon which they altered data resulting in manipulated results from all 47 counties.
We have evidence of this and have shared with those who must have it as we make the case Uhuru cannot be allowed to abuse voters rights like this and expect to rule over them kwa kivua.
The presidential results IEBC is purporting to announce are a total facade and not based at all on what happened at the polls.
The real numbers, based on real voters who stood in line for hours and voted are Raila garnered 8,452,134 while Uhuru received 7,846,528.
These numbers do not reflect more than 1 million votes Raila and NASA were denied owing to systemic and deliberate disenfranchising of voters during the registration process of which we have evidence and no, those morons calling for me to table the evidence are too thick to realize this is no place for such we have and will present the evidence to those who must have it.
The whole thing is one giant fraud unlike anything we’ve seen in the country and worse than 2007 rigging which nearly plunged the country into a civil war.
Deliberations are under way on the next course of action but Raila has rejected the results and is calling for Kenyans to stand for their rights.
 
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Posted by on August 9, 2017 in Politics

 

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Why Raila Is The Man for the Job, Not Uhuru

NASA_Gusii-1

In my column this weekend Why Raila Is The Man For The Job, Not Uhuru, I make the case why:

The 2016 presidential race in the US pitted two opponents the country loathed equally, but had to choose one since the independent candidates stood no chance.

Hard to believe, even as these two candidates were so loathed, each had loyal supporters inseparable from them, such that Donald Trump boasted he could shoot someone on the streets of New York and not lose a single vote.

We have the same paradox in Kenya, where much as Raila Odinga is loved across the country, he has diehard critics who hate him. In the same vein, much as Uhuru Kenyatta has utterly failed as President, he has supporters who praise him, and cannot wait to hear he has rigged himself back to power.

It’s hard to know in concrete numbers how much support each has, and all the major pollsters are dismissed as bought and paid for, so their numbers don’t tell us much.

It’s clear, however, Jubilee is losing ground in a number of counties they were hoping to capture and that’s why they’ve been camping there. But their efforts have been met with great resistance, owing to the better job NASA has done reminding voters who’s responsible for their suffering.

That’s the case NASA is making.

Jubilee, on its part, keeps launching and relaunching old projects and pointing to them as their success stories, when they’re not busy siphoning to themselves and their cronies funds intended for these very initiatives. There’s another reason why the Tyranny of Numbers this time favours NASA and not UhuRuto besides the record they cannot defend, and that is NASA’s change message and, more specifically, its believable message of hope and change. The simple question is, who would 50%+1 of voters going to the poll on 8/8 believe?

The odds are it’ll be Raila, owing to one overriding reason — it is far more believable Raila and NASA can deliver on the things they say they want to do, than it is believing Uhuru because Jubilee have a record of failure against which they will be judged.

Rather, the task for both sides is to make sure as near to 100 per cent of their supporters get out and vote.

With people suffering from hunger and poverty, that task will be far much easier for NASA and, were that to be the case and the majority of those genuinely voting vote for Raila, Uhuru will be defeated. In this case, he should do the honourable thing and accept the verdict of the people and join the following leaders in Africa, who lost and stepped down:

President John Mahama of Ghana; President Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria; Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal and Joyce Banda of Malawi.

That’s the class of former presidents Uhuru should want to be associated with, not those dragged from office kicking and screaming such as Laurent Gbagbo of Ivory Coast and Yahya Jammeh of Gambia, among other strongmen of yesteryear who ruled their oppressed masses with an iron fist, and have only the endless suffering of their people and deaths as their legacy.

It’s an easy decision and we hope and pray that voters show up and vote in masses for Raila because failure to do so would be giving Jubilee an opening to rig. Voting in masses for Raila will deny Jubilee the opportunity to do so.

May we have a fair and peaceful election, and may the candidate who garners the makority of the majority of the votes genuinely cast be sworn as our next President.

 
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Posted by on August 5, 2017 in Politics

 

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