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What’s Really Going on In Kibra By-Election?

Uhuru and Ruto(1)

The Star is reporting that Uhuru Assures His Support in Kibra By-Election

This is after the same paper reported the president has no time to campaign for Ruto’s project in Kibra.

Reporting in both of these news stories is sound.

However, a more closer analysis of the reporting reveals even though the reporting is good, meaning, there’s no factually false or unsupported reporting, it is the case what we have going on here is (a) the president NOT supporting Ruto’s project Mariga to win and (b) he expects him to lose.

Here’s why:

First, even though the credible newspaper says in its first headline above that the president has “assured” Mariga of his support, nowhere in the story itself does the reporter details or even give us any suggestion as to how or what the president intends to do to assure Mariga victory.

Even a political novice will tell you appearing with the candidate and campaigning for him even once in Kibra, will be one sure way of assuring the candidate any better chance, let alone victory.

Second, the story does not quote the president even once to as to what his views are on Mariga. Not once. Not only that, the story has not a single quote from Raphael Tuju, the Cabinet Secretary without portfolio, who is also the Secretary General of the soon to be moribund Jubilee.

That speaks volumes neither the president, nor Jubilee A are interested in the Ruto project Mariga in the Kibra by-elections, otherwise they would have gone on the record to say exactly what they want in the contest.

Instead, they have let journalists and the rest of us to make what we can from it, with the Star saying this is good enough to “assure” Mariga he’s not an outcast after all.

That’s technically correct; were the president not to do so, namely, invite or be seen with Mariga, it would have an even more clear message this is a waste of time and someone still trying to wag his tail.

For those of us who follow these things closely, here is my take on this:

The man from Sugoi is playing chess with the president; he demanded that Jubilee field a candidate–and more specifically, his project Mariga and the party bosses led by Uhuru had to make a decision: refuse to field a Jubilee candidate and give the Hustler a talking point to beat their heads with, or let him have it knowing fully he was at least not MP material to beat ODM candidate.

They were only gleeful when it also emerged the man is not qualified to vie.

When the matter went to IEBC, I expected the Tribunal will affirm the disqualification and so did a couple of well placed people in Nairobi I privately discuss things like this.

However, when I got up the next morning and saw the headline news that IEBC had confirmed Mariga as eligible to vie, I immediately re-analyzed the whole thing and then saw what the strategy must be.

My conclusion from the new analysis was simply put, had the powers that be wanted to have Mariga stopped at the qualification step; they would have had it done and the decision would be fully backed under the law.

As previously noted, Mariga’s disqualification was one of those issues that fall in the gray area of the law, therefore, which side the decision went, had to depend on who is pulling the strings behind the scenes at IEBC.

To be sure, I cannot rule out that Ruto is or can; in fact, this will be the test going to the future, and especially ahead of 2022.

If there’s any reason to believe Ruto has more moles in IEBC than Uhuru–and the system will know this, Chebukati is out of the door long before he knows what hit him.

Ditto those the system determined are up-to no good for 2022.

Note I am not saying up-to no good for 2017, 2018 or even 2013.

That’s now a matter of history books and thanks to the handshake.

The team can only survive for 2022 if Uhuru and Baba agree they should.

So, in this ongoing chess game between Uhuru and Ruto, Uhuru–who just take my word knows Mariga is going nowhere–invited Mariga to come to State House and, of course, the Hustler cannot miss out on a photo-op like this, so he tagged along.

It’s his project, after all.

From the Hustler’s perspective, this is a bad day; a very bad day for him because he is being outwitted every step of the way.

There’s is something he’s desperately baying the president to foolishly fall for but it ain’t happening.

 

 
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Posted by on September 18, 2019 in Politics, Uncategorized

 

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IEBC Clears Mariga to Vie for Kibra;Good.

IEBC(1)

First, this is the outcome many of us were urging and looking out for so Mariga can go down at the polls, as opposed to owing to some technicalities, which in turn will have Ruto and his supporters whining endlessly that Okoth was rigged in after he cleanly floors Mariga and Owallo.

Second, as I noted in my previous post, the decision itself has an implication on IEBC’s status going forward. You’re going to hear Chairman Chebukati is a Ruto stooge or project himself and there will be calls to have him and Ruto loyalists sacked.

That may be the case, but it is more complicated than that and all I can say is, there is a scenario by which both Uhuru and Raila will resist calling for Chebukati’s ouster and I expect this to be the likely scenario to unfold, namely, continued mixed signal sending by Uhuru until it’s time to bring down the axe.

Meanwhile, we have a small minor issue to take care of in Kibra.

No one doubts the late Kibra MP’s brother Imram Okoth will be the winner, keeping the seat safely in ODM where it belongs.

However, Ruto is not interested in winning the seat because he knows he cannot; rather, he just wants to use the opportunity to bruise Raila and to some extent Uhuru as he continues to make the case he has what it takes to defeat both come 2022.

He doesn’t but he clearly believes he does and nothing wrong with one having a super-ego as only time and events always cut it to size. That will be the case here and the first test will not be Kibra, but the launch and successful implementation of BBI beginning with passage of its proposed referendum. #handshake, #buildingbridges, #corruptionke,

 
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Posted by on September 16, 2019 in Politics, Uncategorized

 

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