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Miguna Miguna Book Launch and The Fallout

Miguna Miguna at his book launch

Many of us concluded immediately after Miguna started talking about his controversial book that it will not be the “earthshaking tome” he promised it to be and neither would it reveal anything of substance about the working of the coalition government as he equally promised.

Miguna simply did not serve long enough or deep enough in government to have had the ability to write such an earthshaking tome.

We instead concluded as we have thus far been proven right that, other than the very mundane and inconsequential tales within it, Miguna’s book is mostly nothing but a collection of lies, exaggerations, innuendo and distortions primarily targeting Raila and a few individuals Miguna believes wronged him while working at the PM’s office as an advisor on coalition affairs.

While peddling these tales, Miguna shamelessly but not uncharacteristically tries to elevate himself to a level of importance he is not.

Someone who has worked with Miguna in the past and knows him very well, Sarah Elderkin, sums it up this way, “Miguna’s lack of political wisdom, which in his case is replaced by the equivalent of bludgeoning people over the heads with an axe, is the reason he became a dangerous loose cannon and a terrible liability to both sides of the coalition arrangement.”

Ms. Elderkin adds that Miguna “arrogated to himself authority he did not have – and this is very evident in his prose. “I did this, I did that, I summoned people to a meeting” – and sometimes “we” did this or that,” leading to the question, who is this “we,” which Ms. Elderkin answers by way of noting Miguna’s behavior “ensured he had no friends in the PM’s office or in other arms of government…He had none of the authority he assumed, nor any of the leadership skills that he pretends in his overblown writing.

Some of us reached the conclusion Miguna’s book launch and aftermath will not be the earthshaking moment Miguna and others were touting not because we had seen an advance copy of the book or manuscript but because Miguna himself is a walking audio book for anyone interested to read or listen to and all one needs is simply to cross paths with the man for about 5 minutes and you will read or listen and know all there is to know about the man.

Indeed, I have yet to meet a single person who has interacted with Miguna in any way and for any length of time that does not say the same thing about him and that is, Miguna is an arrogant, boisterous and extremely condescending character or some variation of it.

I have met his friend and the MC for his book launch, Onyango Oloo but, quite frankly, I don’t recall the discussion coming anywhere near talking about Miguna and if we did, I am fairly certain OO would have used different albeit more favorable adjectives to describe him and such is life.

Not to pile on, Miguna to me has always come across as a man angry at something—even when there is nothing to be angry about.

The best illustration that captures this for me is the school-yard bully who everyone tried to avoid lest they got in trouble with him.

Now, I don’t know for fact that Miguna was one but the net import of how he conducts himself and how others see him is practically the same.

If you think this is an exaggeration or unwarranted attack, think about this and that is, how Miguna presents himself in the book: “I have goods on all of you ODM idiots; starting from you Raila on down about PEV and more; dare me and I’ll get you!”

Now, a school-yard bully does not dare anyone.

His mere presence is enough dare that no one but the bravest or otherwise other bullies themselves actually dare or would want to.

Miguna is operating on the same mindset, except by daring people as he has and continues to, he has shown the school-yard bully has more dare in him (the school-yard bully) than Miguna does.

To hear Miguna talk about his dare, you’ll never immediately know the information he purports to have—and the safer bet is he doesn’t have any—is information that pertains to death, mutilation and rape of innocent Kenyans.

For Miguna to say that he awaits a dare from any of these “idiots” to unleash this information in yet another pile of garbage is disturbing to say the least.

To be sure, most people may be tempted to dismiss this as the outbursts of a deranged person but this, in fact, is a more serious matter because it could as well be the fuel that reignites the passions of hate among those who may hear about it and revert to 2008.

This is particularly the case with those who would so reignited without taking the time to peel back the author and find out this is just nothing but another reckless attempt to get even with his perceived enemies without regard to consequences.

Miguna now says he has already provided this information about PEV to the ICC.

If that’s true, does he not know as a lawyer that the proper venue therefore to address that evidence is not in hotel rooms, bars, lobbies and vindictive books but at the Hague?

If he has not provided this information to the ICC—or any law enforcement for that matter, and he now buoyantly wants to use this information as he claims to finish his enemies with it, does this not tell us all we need to know—not that we didn’t before, about the man, his state of mind and to what level he has degenerated to?

The truth is, when it’s all said and done, Miguna would have proven to have propagated, schemed and executed one of the worst malicious deceptions in our country with his book rivaled only by Ruto’s Mau forest lies and those about the ICC he and Uhuru Kenyatta peddled to their death early this year.

To understand why I am saying this, everyone reading this must remove their partisan hats and let’s simply think through this whole thing as a matter of fact and objectively so.

We can start by agreeing there are at least three areas anyone from the “inside” writing a political or politically motivated book would shed some real light if they indeed, were privy to information heretofore not known to the public but providing it in good faith and these are: corruption, internal workings of the coalition government with a view to demonstrate what’s actually responsible for the stalled development and governance in general.

We can agree that a book that lays out the internal workings of the government or analysis of the various government policy papers with a purpose to identify faults in the governance structure will be of interest only to those in academia and a few political junkies.

No publisher would ordinarily be interested in such a book.

On the other hand, a book detailing corruption with first-hand knowledge and tangible evidence of same would interest most Kenyans if for any reason because even as we have known and continue to believe corruption is still rife in government, very little is ever actually known or even disclosed as to precisely how things go down with these corrupt deals.

The only information that’s thrown out there and regurgitated to the point of meaninglessness is the names of those suspected of the vice and amounts stolen, which keep going up and up to now staggering amounts.

When John Githongo came blasting with guns ablaze, he quickly run out of ammo and was told to take it easy and he has to the point one can bet many have forgotten who he is and what made him famous.

There many people, especially those who get upset stomachs at the thought of having Raila reelected as president, who have been waiting with bated breath to savor Miguna’s book and particularly the much anticipated “nailing” not Kibaki or anyone else for that matter, but Raila and his close aides with demonstrable evidence of corruption.

What Miguna has instead delivered and no one can really disagree with this, is regurgitated old stories and has quite possibly embellished them to make them “juicier” except the juice may be zapped out of the book in court actions and leave us all where we started, save for Miguna who may be a few bucks ahead, give or take how the court cases go.

To say Miguna has miserably failed to deliver on his promise to expose corruption at the PM’s office would be an understatement albeit not necessarily any cause for celebration by anyone—or at least it shouldn’t be by those who care about fighting corruption; it’s just a sad and pathetic state of affairs for one to raise people’s hopes and expectations so high only to disappoint mightily.

There are, of course, those who would buy hook, line and sinker what Miguna has written and take it as gospel truth—never mind virtually all of it that he deems “explosive” is actually innuendos, regurgitated, distorted and many cases good old fashioned lies.

Caroli Omondi, one of the individuals adversely mentioned in the book says he is prepared to sue Miguna and the Daily Nation over allegations made in the book about him and corruption.

Miguna is disappointed, not that Caroli is bringing the suit, but why Raila is not the one bringing suit against him!

In other words, being the high and mighty fish he is, Caroli is some small fish who should be thankful that Miguna merely defamed him and if he wishes to challenge the big man in court over his allegations in the book, then in Miguna’s words, “Bring it on!”

Miguna actually used a different but related phrase which means something entirely different and I will not reprint on this family oriented blog!

This yelling by Miguna to “bring it on” at it were is very telling and if one puts aside everything else that has been said by Miguna and others and even the question of whether there is any substance in this book or not, and simply ask the question why would anyone, let alone a lawyer dare in such a sophomoric manner everyone to sue him, the answer is very revealing.

Daring can be both admirable and condemnable and the latter is often preceded with a level of recklessness worth the condemnation.

It remains of what breed is Miguna’s daring but, common sense would dictate a premonition toward the undesirable kind because it would make more sense if one is on solid footing to let the book speak for itself and if sued, simply defend with truth and facts.

The angry manner in which Miguna is daring everyone to sue him really goes to show what’s been wrong with this book from inception: the book has more to do with Miguna and his travails at the PM’s office than anything he has been portraying it to be.

There is no question Miguna is on an angry mission to finish Raila and a handful of people he deems have wronged him like no other person has ever been wronged—according to him—so he believes doing what he is doing is the best way to exact his vindictive revenge.

In fact, Miguna has over-played his cards.

Someone else smarter and more attuned to the art of personal destruction in the same shoes Miguna is or has been and with the same information Miguna has would have seriously damaged Raila with a book.

Instead, we have had nothing but a “me, me, and I” Miguna circus that still continues to unfold.

Raila is supposed to be the target but the angry and confrontational manner in which Miguna has launched the book, complete with inappropriate, misplaced and vile language against those in ODM Miguna deems are his enemies, especially Raila who much as he may hate him, he owes the office of Prime Minister respect not to refer to Raila in the demeaning manner he has therefore confirming this has nothing to do with wrongdoing by the PM or those around him but total, blind vengeance.

Miguna would be better served by reading and heeding the counsel in the book of Romans 12:19 in which we are all instructed, “Do not take revenge, my dear friends, but leave room for God’s wrath, for it is written: “It is mine to avenge; I will repay,”says the Lord.

Few can say they have never been wronged; we all have in some way or another been wronged but uncontrolled vindictiveness and revenge is not the way to go against those who have wronged us, especially in a case such as Miguna’s where the wrong was not in substance but process.

There are any number of ways Miguna would have vindicated himself of whatever wrong he believes was visited on him short of creating the circus he has that ultimately will likely do him more harm than good.

But don’t tell that to Miguna who many of us have since the very beginning implored him to take time off to reflect on his life and perhaps return a changed man to make some appreciable difference than he thinks he has.

According to Miguna—and this is why he is unimpressed with akina Caroli suing him—this is a battle of the titans between he and the mbuta himself, aka, Raila Amolo Odinga.

If he can succeed where many actually powerful and mighty have failed, then Miguna will ride the chariots of victory and declare to the world he has by his pen and words accomplished a feat in revenge worth every energy expended and all the unparalleled exposure to foolishness.

Raila, for his part, sees Miguna as a nuisance he would rather have some clerical staff at his office or ODM Secretariat deal with.

The PM is wise taking that position for responding to Miguna in any way stokes the very ego he desperately hopes is by anyone, especially by any big fish in his book who are better off advised to keep mum as well and watch from a distance as this cloud, too, passes.

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Posted by on July 17, 2012 in Politics

 

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Raila Should Select The Certified Reformist Gitobu Imanyara As His Running Mate

The Standard Online in a story I cut and paste below has joined others in speculating that Raila may be zeroing in on the Central Imenti MP and certified reformist Hon. Gitobu Imanyara to be his running mate.

This follows Mr. Imanyara’s joining the influential Friends of Raila (FORA) lobby group where he was immediately appointed as deputy patron, a key position in the group and Raila’s reelection campaign.

I am proudly and enthusiastically calling on Raila to make our good friend Imanyara his running mate and end the speculation because Imanyara is not only a true reformist committed to bringing about change in the country much as Raila is, he provides the best option for regional balance without resorting to tribal based arithmetic which those who believe in it would say Raila must pick someone from RV.

As yours truly has been saying on these blogs, Raila is seeking the presidency based on a 47 County Campaign strategy (47CC), which means he will traverse and harvest votes across the country and regardless of what region or tribe because his goal is not only to get more than the requisite majority to be sworn as president but also to be elected with a commanding majority from across the country so that he can bring about the long overdue transformation of our country he has promised.

Hon. Gitobu Imanyara will be an ideal running mate and Deputy President to help him bring about that transformation.

That does not mean there are not others equally impressive and/or qualified as Imanyara who can take the spot as well; there are and I am sure the PM can toss a coin as between and among them and pick one with the same desired outcome of having a credible running mate who can bring about regional balance and as they and ODM go on to sweep the country at the polls.

The only thing I would say is, if one or another is not picked, especially among those others whose names have been recently mentioned as potential picks for running mate such as Henry Kosgey, let them not let that be a reason to slow down or hold back their support because there are many other ways they can contribute and impact in the transformation of the country working with Raila, if Kenyans give him the nod again as they did before but was prevented from being sworn as president.

Indeed, with the selection of Imanyara and the ongoing and steady regaining of lost ground in RV, this election maybe a repeat of 2007 must all of its ugliness, namely, Raila and ODM yet again sweeping the country.

This is because more and more Kenyans are saying enough of mambo ya ukabila, corruption and impunity.

They are also demanding that the constitution be fully implemented and none other than Raila of those out there with a serious shot at the presidency can make the case they can even come remotely close to Raila in fully implementing the constitution while at the same waging and winning a serious fight against corruption and ending impunity.

None

For the Standard story on Raila and Imanyara, go Standard Online

 
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Posted by on June 20, 2012 in Politics

 

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Prof. Makau Mutua Is Once Again Wrong About Raila Campaign Strategy This Time Regarding Ruto Part I

Many A Dream To Occupy As Prezo

State House Nairobi

Professor Makau Mutua is wrong in his conclusions about what Ruto’s return to ODM portends or what were to happen were Raila to agree to work with Ruto by way of an alliance between the two and their respective parties.

Before analyzing Makau’s column in the Daily Nation inaptly titled “Raila Must Shun Ruto or Pay The Political Price,” it is important to keep a few things in mind as one evaluates what the good professor is talking about.

One of these is simply the fact that politics is not an exact science.

As in everything in life, there are many choices one may have to make in how to pursue political objectives or even to pursue them at all.

Given the various competing interests a politician must sometimes choose from or pacify and given the concomitant consequences directly flowing from making such decisions or failing to do so when things go south, a successful and effective politician is one who weighs all the available options to effect an objective and picks one that he or she must provide effective leadership in having a majority follow him or her with it and the key here is providing effective leadership which produces a following sufficient to effect successful pursuit of that objective.

There is no exact formula in how one does this but we can deduce from studying those who succeed in such endeavors to be mostly individuals with plenty of wisdom, stamina, and guts with relevant experience topping it all.

These qualities also ensure that, if one makes the call and it turns out to be the wrong one or backfires, they are able to quickly recover or face and deal with the consequences with gusto because even in defeat, there is success.

It all depends on the nature of underlying efforts and motives and, conversely, what comes of the outcome.

It’s easier to know the former than the latter but it’s not knowing the latter with any degree of certainty that makes some decisions and choices more difficult and risky than others.

This principle is particularly relevant in the Kenyan political setting because for decades, the most reliable predictor of outcome has been tribalism and ethnicity and this still remains the case to some great extent and how much we can only wait for the 2012 or 2013 elections to know for sure.

The question then becomes, since we know we can no longer as a nation continue to embrace and/or exploit tribalism and ethnicity in choosing or electing our leaders, what can we do to make sure we have the desired outcome of having neither of these destructive tendencies eradicated or once for all done with, leaving choosing or electing leaders strictly a matter of qualifications and leadership ability?

I don’t know for fact that Raila and Ruto are in talks towards Ruto returning to ODM or somehow the two working together as Makau and other posit that they are but, let’s assume for the sake of argument that they are; is Makau right in his condemnation of the efforts and his doomsday prediction that such cooperation will sink Raila’s presidential quest?

I do not think so and that brings me to Makau’s piece who I differ with completely in everything he is arguing in support of his position, starting from his seeking cover from the Bible, Mark 8:36, which says, “What good is it for a man to gain the whole world, yet forfeit his soul?”—a verse which is, with all due respect to the good professor, totally inapplicable here.

It would be wholly outside the scope of this article to go into an exposition why this verse is inapplicable in the manner Makau has used it so let me just say the verse applies to what we need to do as individuals to live according to God’s instructions and specifically prohibits us from pursuing earthly things that lead to the loss of our souls, which according to God is the greatest loss of all.

On the other hand, the verse is no more instructive or relevant than what is expected of our politicians individually and collectively as embodied in Chapter Six of the constitution which morally and ethically is the measure by which we must hold our leaders accountable to their conduct as it related to their ability to hold public office.

Anything more, including adhering to even higher moral and ethical standards is desirable but don’t hold your breath on that one.

Not that the Bible is not relevant in its teachings when it comes to politics; it is, but Makau would be better off looking elsewhere in the Bible such as Romans 3:23 which reminds us “for all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God” and Chapter 6 is there to make sure only those passing its mandate are fit to hold office.

While Chapter Six sets the minimum standards for ethical and moral conduct in holding public office, there is no specific guidance given to parties anywhere as to what is the right or wrong way to conduct their affairs, including campaigns beyond what the law provides or prescribes.

There is no law that would bar Ruto from returning to ODM or for Raila to work with him so this simply becomes purely a question of political strategy and tactics but Makau has coyly turned the issue of political strategy into one of exclusively right and wrong from a moral and ethical standpoint.

Even though related on the one hand in that political strategy must be informed by legal, moral, and ethical considerations, it does not follow that both political strategy and these considerations fit into a clearly defined matrix where everyone can look and agree even what that definition is.

Intelligent, well-meaning people with no ulterior motives can differ as to their view of whether ODM accepting Ruto back or Raila working with Ruto is a morally right thing to do.

Sometimes asking the wrong question can lead to wrong answers and conclusions and this is one good example.

The question should be not one whether Ruto returning to ODM or Raila agreeing to work with Ruto is a good thing; rather, the question should be how significant is either event occurring toward advancing the prospect of having Raila, the leading reformist in the country, to be reelected and this time sworn as president?

If the answer is yes, this would be a significant move or even game changer, then the second question where all this morality and ethical considerations must be weighted in is is it worth it for either of these events to be allowed to occur or is as Makau argues committing political suicide?

The second question cannot be objectively answered by anyone who doesn’t understand and agree that there are, indeed, times where the end justifies the means and there couldn’t be a more clearer case than this where we either have a reformist president in Raila or a non-reformist, status quo lover of impunity and corruption as the alternative choice.

That is what this elections are going to be about and that’s not being subjective or biased because of my support for Raila but anyone who knows anything about our country, who is vying for the presidency and where they stand relative to reforms and full implementation of the constitution, they would have to objectively agree only Raila is the reformist and reform minded while everyone else is not and cannot embrace something this grand overnight or even after a long time.

Another way to understand this is to ask and objectively answer the question whether clearing obstacles in the way for a reformist like Raila, who stands over and above all others vying for the presidency as the most qualified candidate, is clearing these obstacles worth it if that includes working with people like Ruto who obviously have the ICC hanging of their heads?

Answering this question must as a precondition require one to be intellectually honest as to how does Ruto being charged at the ICC figure in this analysis of whether it’s a good or bad thing for him to return to ODM or work with Raila.

My contention is notwithstanding his reckless conduct with his pal Uhuru during the so-called “prayer rallies” which were nothing but, Ruto is actually innocent under the law until proven guilty.

If we respect the concept of the rule of law, we must accept that fact.

Note this position is not inconsistent with my previously asking Ruto and UK to suspend their presidential ambitions in Uhuru and Ruto Must Now Suspend Their Presidential Ambitions because working with another candidate is wholly a different thing from running as one for obvious reasons not necessary to elaborate.

Having taken the view from the very beginning that Ruto cannot be convicted of the serious crimes against humanity he faces—unless he bungles his defense—and a position I know I differ with many of my ODM friends, one may be tempted to dismiss my argument as biased.

It is fashionable to sing the refrain Ruto is guilty of the serious crimes he stands charged with and therefore Raila or ODM should have nothing to do with him but I am not there.

The only argument one can make and I have is Ruto’s stock has steadily gone down from when he miscalculated and allowed himself to be used to topple Raila as ABR (Anyone But Raila) only to crash and burn such that Raila can easily dispense with any desire to work with him but the flip side of this argument is equally convincing and that is, even if his stock as devalued, it still has value to give dividends to make it worthwhile keeping it or in this case working with him.

Marginal value but value nonetheless.

A different argument that can be put forth and persuasively so is sometimes you just have to fight fire with fire.

Right now, our Number One problem in Kenya is tribalism and we must slay this animal if we are ever to attain true fruits of independence as a united, peace loving nation.

You cannot find anyone more filled with hope and optimism when it comes to Kenyan politics and our people than yours truly but even he must come to grips with the reality and fact that change cometh slowly.

There is no question we are seeing signs that even though still a strong and dominating a factor in Kenyan politics, there is anecdotal evidence tribalism and ethnicity may play a lesser role in the next elections thanks to efforts of leaders like Raila who are not only determined to preach the message of unity and ending tribalism and negative ethnicity as determinative factors in how we choose our leaders, they are providing the leadership needed to change the minds of even some of the hardcore believers of these destructive mindsets such that in the end, we shall have a majority agreeing with them and electing a president for the first time who neither tribalism nor massive rigging would be the determinative factor in how he is elected.

It would therefore behoove Raila to work with anyone and everyone willing to work with him knowing fully well that includes people who may have heavy baggage such as Ruto but the converse is less an attractive choice because taking the verse Makau cites literally to go the other direction would be the equivalent of a suitor who seeks to marry a woman of his dream and does everything he has been told is the right thing to do to win her heart and her parents’ blessing but forgets to do something as basic as inquiring and finding out what the woman really likes and wants.

A more clever suitor and competitor who equally covets the same woman finds out what makes the woman click and does it in addition to using his charm and wit to win her over and ditto her parents, leaving the other suitor hapless as he clings to unhelpful rules and practices while the woman joins the former’s hand in marriage.

In reality, the hapless suitor who loses out could be the medicine that the doctor ordered for the woman to have an everlasting and happy courtship and union but if the one who wins her heart has any scruples in him, he would strife to live up to the expectation created in both her and her parents before their approving of him, lest he will be deemed a bad mistake and rejected accordingly.

Same thing with the quest for the presidency of our beloved country.

There are many suitors in the field, including downright crooks and thieves but in making his case, Raila is saying he knows just what the bride and her parents need to win them over and has embarked on doing just that or meeting the need and if some of that falls outside the box in norms, practice and expectations, what matter most is that he is able to win over the hearts of the pride to be and parents.

If he doesn’t disappoint and becomes just what the doctor ordered for the woman and more, then whatever failings he may have had or could have henceforth pale in comparison and actually become understandable as simply a part of inescapable life.

In the context of reforms and Makau’s argument that Raila is doomed to lose the mantle he carries as a reformist if Ruto returns to ODM or if Raila agrees to work with him, Raila must summon all his political skills, charm and good luck to make the case why this is not a condemnable move, if it occurs, and doubly so as among some of the reformers and Civil Society.

The working assumption in the absence of any logical reason not to so assume is most of the Kenyans supporting Raila, including many of the reform only minded and Civil Society would back Raila and whatever he does within the bounds of acceptable or at least understandable options.

He need only worry about convincing the rest of the country; not all of them, but enough to put him over the constitutionally mandated 50% + 1 to be reelected and this time sworn as president.

In Part II, I will examine Prof. Makau Mutua’s specific contentions and arguments

 
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Posted by on June 18, 2012 in Politics

 

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The Kibaki Succession Game; Unfolding Truths and Other Revelations Part IV

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When it became patently obvious to everyone, especially those minding ODM business that Mudavadi’s quest to challenge Raila for the ODM nomination in the false name of “internal democracy” was a sham, Raila and ODM quickly turned the tables on him.

According to reliable sources, the party determined that Raila had enough support throughout the country to withstand any challenge from Mudavadi, even taking into account the by then known fact that delegates were being bought and the more ominous fact that greater cataclysmic mischief would be visited on the party in the Mt. Kenya region during the nomination process.

If Mudavadi was early on being encouraged to challenge Raila because he was perceived to be a weakling who would not defeat Raila and even though the exercise was presumed to be good for the party in showing its transparency and openness, now the idea was to encourage Mudavadi to run but crash him in defeat while at the same time creating an opening to replace him as Raila’s running mate, having established the rationale for it himself, namely, no one should assume automatic nomination.

At about this time, I was given an opportunity by ODM Secretary General Anyang Nyong’o consented to by all to attend one of the ODM National Executive Committee meeting as a Diaspora observer on March 5, 2012.

All that that occurred at the meeting is confidential other than what the SG announced to the public therefore I cannot discuss but I came away with the impression Mudavadi was a man besieged with himself and totally uncertain as to what direction he was headed or even what he wanted.

Statements Mudavadi was making in public were inconsistent with what he was saying or did not say at the meeting and the mood there was from all sides that party unity was more important than aspirations of one individual be that Raila or Mudavadi and that partly explains why Mudavadi bolted because there was no love lost within the party that he was simply acting as a man on a mission to get rid of Raila at the instigation and direction from others with no interest at all for the welfare of the party.

Following that March 5, 2012 NEC meeting, it became readily apparent Mudavadi was badly losing his fake argument that Raila and ODM were “undemocratic” because basically everything he was demanding publicly, Raila and ODM were saying, “sure; we can do that!”

Where Mudavadi miscalculated and this really speaks to his weakness as a leader, is not knowing in politics saying one agrees to do anything doesn’t mean anything about when they will do it yet to demand that something that has already been promised be done today and not tomorrow and notwithstanding what procedures are in place to go about doing it makes one making such demands come across as now whining and insincere about their demands.

That’s exactly what Mudavadi did.

Having demanded that he must challenge Raila for the party nomination, Raila and ODM said, “sure, no problem; go for it!”

Yet, when it was brought to his attention that in order to do so the party constitution must be amended to delete or amend a provision that provides for automatic nomination of party leader as presidential flag bearer, Mudavadi demanded that this be done yesterday.

“Not so fast,” basically said ODM SG Anyang Nyong’o and other top ODM officials as they were filing party compliance documents with the Registrar’s office on April 9, 2012; “we don’t have time to legally amend our party constitution before the deadline to submit these documents, so chill, brother… the right time will come when we shall do the necessary amendments.”

Nothing wrong there.

Pure politics Mudavadi and his people could not have had a logical come-back without sounding whiny and insincere but they did anyway further exposing them as phonies.

From that point, Mudavadi’s quest, fake as it was, to challenge Raila quickly fizzled within ODM.

Because of the bungling in this fake bid to challenge Raila under the false name of “internal democracy,” the schemers were faced with a dilemma: to drop the idea altogether or salvage it with its concomitant risk of total failure.

Recall the original idea was to have Mudavadi knock out Raila as ODM flag-bearer to be followed by the schemers rallying behind their true choice for the presidency and annihilate Mudavadi and ODM at the polls.

However, upon further analysis and consideration, and especially given Mudavadi’s fumbling in his challenge of Raila for the ODM party nomination, the schemers quickly decided to get Mudavadi out of ODM and simply make him their preferred presidential candidate through and through.

Before making this decision, the pros and cons of Mudavadi vz two other individuals who were under serious consideration as the general election preferred candidate the Inner Sanctums were to throw their weight behind, after dumbing Mudavadi, who would have in this scenario earlier knocked off Raila, these pros and cons were not so carefully reviewed but it was concluded Mudavadi was, everything considered, the better bet.

I have not sourced this from anyone but my hunch tells me those in consideration to replace Mudavadi in the initial scenario where he was to be propped up only to be knocked down at the general election would have had to be the late Prof. Saitoti, Kalonzo Musyoka and one other person who I believe still remains an alternate to Mudavadi should he, too, crash and burn as ABR (Anyone But Raila).

As disclosed at the end of this blog, the schemers are prepared to do whatever they deem it takes to hoist to the presidency by ballot or other means their preferred choice and it really doesn’t matter who that is so long as a near convincing case can be made that he is presidential material.

Do not expect anything akin to the Moi project where everyone but a segment one should really worry about knew Uhuru was neither presidential material nor anyone who could be shoved down their throats just like that.

This time around, the schemers must present someone like Mudavadi who weak and ineffective leader he may be, at least a case passing the laugh test can be made that he can be president; dancing to the tune of his masters but president nonetheless.

It is also important to recall “schemers” here refers to two distinct and even unrelated groups connected only in their quest to stop Raila from being reelected as president: the Inner Sanctums, representing the inner core of Kibaki’s confidants and clique and the Desperados, those right outside the inner ring but having with the Inner Sanctums the aforementioned common purpose and objective of “stopping” Raila from being reelected as president.

Mudavadi is the project of the Inner Sanctums with gleeful collaboration and help from none other than Moi himself.

Meanwhile, there is so much distrust and mistrust among the Desperados, their role in KSG is becoming less and less important to the point they may just fizzle and recoil either to Raila side or go with the Inner Sanctums where they are increasingly becoming less and less important.

In fact, contrary to what is being reported, it is becoming more and more clear the Inner Sanctums don’t really give a hoot about either Uhuru or Ruto as they see both of them as a liability to them.

In this reasoning, rallying behind someone with less baggage, relatively speaking, like MM is a sure bet for them to hoist to State House than either Uhuru, Ruto or whoever they either or both chose to rally behind other than Raila.

On the other hand, and contrary to what other analysts have been saying, it is not the case that Kibaki is playing his cards in favor of Uhuru presidency or anyone else for that matter because he believes only he or that person can spare him from being taken to the Hague, should evidence at trial warrant that, and given State House has already been implicated.

Let’s have two things clear about this and this anyone can take to the bank:

First, the ICC Chief Prosecutor has broad discretion as to who they bring charges against and nothing anyone can do if they make a determination it’s neither in the public interest nor national security to bring charges against a sitting or former president.

Second, it doesn’t matter who is elected the next president in Kenya they are not ever going to “give up” Kibaki for prosecution at the ICC or anywhere for that matter.

To be even more analytically blunt about this, none of the cases really belong at the Hague.

These cases could have been tried and people found guilty or not guilty under our Penal Code or under special law amending the Code and for those arguing justice could not be found in the rotten judicial system we have had for decades and now under reform, the Hague was not and is not necessarily the only answer, even though it’s too late now and it might as well be.

Mudavadi is favored by the Inner Sanctums for reasons that have to do with protecting certain interests, including many involved in all manner of corruption they are genuinely afraid Raila will go after them were he to be reelected as president—something that is consistent with his character of not encouraging or sanctioning corruption.

The Desperados, on the other hand, are obsessed with “stopping” Raila simply because of their unadulterated, pure lust for power for the sake of having it and even more so to deny Raila that privilege simply because they would rather have it.

Nothing more, nothing less.

To best understand this, think of a beautiful woman in the middle of a boxing ring with several men ogling her all of them ugly and unattractive to any woman except for one who is the opposite and only one can have this one woman.

If they have any brains at all, they had better find ways to push the attractive one off the stage and have him restrained there while they desperately try to make their case with the woman who must pick one among these worse choices she never dreamed of in her life.

If the attractive one is also a giant they cannot even collectively lift even one of his feet, and if he is capable of crashing them all to flatness on the floor, then he will be the one to take the trophy and she won’t complain for he was the most attractive one after all.

So is the case with the so-called G7.

None among them is attractive to Kenyans to win their majority support yet Raila dwarfs them individually and even collectively, they are not able to move him no matter what they try, yet, they each want the trophy, namely, the presidency.

Their own unchecked ambitions and deeply rooted beliefs in tribalism may in the end be their own undoing but worry not much about them.

What Kenyans must worry and concern themselves about is what the Inner Sanctums are prepared to do to make sure the sphere of influence in political power in Kenya still remains the Mt. Kenya region after the elections even though not necessarily having one of their own as the next president.

In a nutshell, this is what is driving KSG by the Inner Sanctums, namely, the preservation of power in the Mt. Kenya region.

They must find someone they can control from the get go to the last day that individual serves as president, if they succeed in having him elected or imposed upon us.

That person right now is Mudavadi.

Since the late Prof. Saitoti was quietly trying to mount his own more or less independent “reformed” campaign, and since no one other than those privy to the KSG scheme would have known what the schemers had in mind with Saitoti in connection with their scheme, the selection of Mudavadi as ABR had no public bearing on the late Prof. Saitoti’s presidential bid plans.

Musyoka, on the other hand, has clearly been sidelined already and Mudavadi has for all practical purposes and intent been elevated to VP and is de facto one for now much to the chagrin of Musyoka but no one would shed even crocodile tears for that one.

After the unprecedented introduction of Kibaki on the occasion of the 49th Madaraka Day celebration at Nyayo Stadium the other day, Mudavadi did not even wait for the president to speak but was driven out and flown VP style to a rally he was earlier scheduled to attend.

This was his inauguration as ABR.

Granted Musyoka and the PM were out of the country at the time Kibaki had Mudavadi introduce him at the Madaraka Day rally but, to highlight this shift of power from the hapless Musyoka to Mudavadi, Kibaki sent him a few days later to give a speech in his behalf at the Fifth World Accreditation Day held at KICC when Musyoka was said to be nearby literally at the same time.

There is nothing wrong with that as that is politics as usual.

What is wrong and what Kenyans must watch out for and reject, are the extent the schemers are willing to go to have their preferred choice hoisted to State House regardless of the people’s will as expressed in an open and transparent ballot.

According to reliable sources, the plan among the KSG schemers is to install Mudavadi or whoever succeeds him as ABR at any cost and literally so.

Part of this plan is to outright buy MPs allied to Raila and especially those from the ODM strongholds in the hopes of demoralizing and crashing ODM, including chief among that list Ababu Namwamba who my source tells me has already been offered KSHs200 million for the small act of “courage” to defect but has so far declined.

The KSHs 200 million is according to my source the price tag for “more principled and grounded MPs” and those less so the going rate is half of that amount and in between.

The price tag goes down to literally a few hundred bob for buying votes at the precinct and sub-location levels.

The schemers have put the overall price tag for their invidious scheme to retain control of the presidency at 9 billion, 900 million, with 6 billion of that already pledged by one individual who is key in KSG.

The rest is to come from—guess where?

The tax-payers.

Supporters who have for a long time been strategically placed in various ministries, starting from Treasury are under instructions to start stealing and piling in a fund to finance this scheme.

It is feared that the theft has long since started and is underway.

The rest of the money will come from a list of about 100 individuals who are each tasked to raise 100 million each.

Other plans include maximizing the use of tribalism and other divisive tactics to deny Raila the vote not to forget the good-old massive rigging.

In Part V, I will offer my views as to what all this means and what ODM and Kenyans of goodwill must all do to counter this very dangerous and yet again a brewing affront on our beloved country.

 
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Posted by on June 15, 2012 in Politics

 

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The Kibaki Succession Game: The Unfolding Truth and Other Revelations Part III

Kibaki and Raila

Kibaki, Raila and others each wondering about KSG at past event.

On August 5, 2011, I met a friend I knew to be good friends with both the PM and the MP for Sabatia Hon. Musalia Mudavadi at a popular after-hours gathering place for many a politician and business types near Yaya Center.

In the course of our hanging out with others joining in and out of our chat, I asked my friend how things were going politically and his response jolted me momentarily: “Don’t be surprised if Raila is not the ODM nominee,” my friend almost passingly told me.

A bit shocked but trying not to show, I replied, “that’s a new one; why do you say that?”

And then my friend shared with me reasons why.

This was the first time I knew something was afoot with MM in connection with KSG.

Although my friend did not make any connection or mention MM’s role in the larger scheme of things in the succession politics, and specifically even though he did not mention anything to do with KSG and its schemers I now know, my friend did make it emphatically clear that he was aware of a plot by some in ODM to replace Mudavadi as Raila’s running mate and this, my friend told me, would be a suicidal move on the part of Raila and ODM.

Agreeing with my friend on this second point, and putting aside his shocker about the possibility of Raila not being the ODM nominee, I penned Why Raila Cannot Drop Mudavadi and Word To Raila Supporters In East and Central in which I made the case why Mudavadi should not be dropped as VP running mate for Raila.

It should be noted that at time and that is by September 2011, the issue within ODM was whether or not to keep Mudavadi as Raila’s running mate, not whether Mudavadi or anyone should challenge Raila for the party nomination.

It was a given as the ODM constitution provides even to-date that Raila as party leader will automatically become the flag-bearer for the party as presidential candidate.

Indeed, a compelling case can be made from contemporaneously occurring events that Mudavadi himself counted it as a major victory to simply survive efforts to replace him as VP running mate.

Things changed, however, on January 23, 2012 with the ICC confirmation of crimes against humanity charges against Uhuru and Ruto, the two politicians who are united only in their declared quest to “stop” Raila.

Recall from Part I by this time, Ruto had already crashed and burned as ABR and the schemers were in over-drive trying to find a replacement.

The replacement came following the call to Mudavadi who as I previously blogged all gleefully willing to challenge Raila and with enough “support” he was promised, he assured the schemers he could topple Raila as party leader and grab the party nomination as ODM presidential candidate.

What he didn’t know at that time was the conniving schemers also had in this KSG plans to politically destroy him once nominated and pave way for their own preferred true candidate and this in their calculation would have been pretty much anyone they fancied, having removed Raila as their main obstacle and ODM being in tatters upon destroying Mudavadi, its presidential candidate in this scenario.

Everything looked good on paper:

Money: Check

Decoys: Check

State House: Check.

But, when it came to implementation, the schemers found they had on hand a situation none of them really contemplated even as they knew Mudavadi was no Raila when it came to Kenyan politics.

The plan, according to a reliable source, was twofold: On the one hand, Mudavadi was to take Raila head on with no holds barred making the case Raila is unelectable because he had “irreversibly lost” both the RV and Mt. Kenya region votes in total but he (Mudavadi) could regain these votes with ease and sweep the nation come general elections.

On the other hand, according to the same source, the plan was to both buy enough ODM delegates across the country to tip the scales for Mudavadi as well as to make sure none of the delegates from Mt. Kenya region even as cast a single vote for Raila and the latter was to be accomplished by a combination of vote buying and threats or even violence if necessary.

Unfortunately for the schemers, however, Mudavadi being the weak, indecisive person he is, came off the gates comatose.

Rather than taking the fight to Raila for the party nomination by drawing sharp distinctions between he and Raila, Mudavadi essentially came out mumbling something to the effect he was merely trying to make sure there was “internal democracy” within ODM by offering himself as a candidate.

He even went as far as promising he would not say anything negative about Raila and that his will be simply a contrast in style and sense of direction.

A first year Political Science student could have told him this would not work, given the schemer’s objective to annihilate Raila because neither they nor anyone else in KSG was interested in internal democracy of anything.

They wanted Raila’s political head and this was the feeblest way it could be delivered, namely, talking gibberish.

One can understand why Mudavadi was sluggish off the gate: It would be the first time in his political life that he would have to undertake something of this magnitude on his own.

Those fronting and backing him were behind the scenes and never to be seen or known in public unlike the past where they publicly wagged and tossed him around as a little toy.

Moi, for example, held him up to the Luhyas and Western Kenya in general and said “you want this (goodies), then you would have to vote for my man as president.”

They wisely rejected and so did the country.

Mudavadi’s challenge of Raila was so timid, lackluster and simply unthreatening many, including loyal ODMers saw nothing wrong with it and even encouraged it.

Not yours truly.

Putting two and two together from just observing what Mudavadi was saying and doing and with some hints from a source in Mudavadi’s camp who was not divulging much, I sounded the alarm in Mudavadi Has No Good Reason To Challenge Raila for ODM Party Nomination posted on January 27, 2012 in which I basically noted the Mudavadi’s challenge was a sham and unhelpful for Raila and the party.

Immediately after posting that blog, I received notes from at least one top Raila and ODM confidant telling me in his view, what Mudavadi was doing was healthy for the party and that I should support the idea.

I would have to admit this coming from this trusted friend of the PM, and someone I know and respect his views very well, I found myself seconding guessing the position I had taken about this MM challenge being a sham but my hunch remained unaffected.

About 2 weeks later, I penned An Open Letter To Hon. Wycliff Musalia Mudavadi in which I implored Mudavadi in my naïve belief he would listen much as others were imploring him to put aside this what some of us smelled a rat for not being a genuine effort to challenge Raila.

I would later confirm through Mudavadi’s confidant I first mentioned above that MM read the letter and took issue with something I said in it that he thought was an unfair attack of him.

In fact, not too long after sending and posting that open letter, I run into Mudavadi in person on one of my visits home and knowing fully well he had read my letter, I asked him as we were shaking hands if everything was okay with him and the party.

With a smile that told me all I needed to know, and probably a desire on his part to land a left hook across my belly, MM simply nodded in the affirmative and said yes and that’s all was said between yours truly and him as others joined in the small room for a brief impromptu party meeting.

Mudavadi, of course, was smiling all the way to the bank as it were.

Upon returning to the US, I continued to receive information from reliable sources that Mudavadi was up-to no good as far as Raila and ODM was concerned and partly based on this information, I penned Mudavadi Must Come Clean About Anti-ODM Meetings With Uhuru, Ruto and Other Men in which I noted the following:

On 20 March 2012, there was an anti ODM meeting in Jimmy Kibaki’s office in Gigiri. In attendance were Mr. Sammy Koech, Jimmy Kibaki, and a representative of Hon. Mudavadi as well as Hon. Kenyatta’s. The main topic was how Mr. Ruto, Mr. Kibaki and Hon. Kenyatta can support Mudavadi to run down ODM. Detailed plans that continue to unfold were laid.

Mr. Kibaki advised that Mudavadi should not quit ODM yet, “If he quits, he will find himself under a tree and his life will be worse than it was in 2002.” He went on to suggest that if Uhuru and Ruto are to go to The Hague, Mudavadi should receive their blessings, because, they said, “He is malleable and nationally acceptable.”

The meeting of 20 March also mooted the idea of “doing a dirty job,” whatever that may mean. They agreed to use someone close to Hon. Mudavadi to do “the dirty job.”

Hon. Mudavadi cannot deny this.

Nor can he deny that the Gigiri meeting on 20 March was informed that he has held several secret meetings with Mzee Moi, where they have discussed how to scuttle ODM.

A further meeting arranged for Tuesday 27 March at 11.00 am did not take place. However, one eventually happened on Friday 30 March. The whole agenda was on the ODM nominations. In particular, the meeting discussed how Hon. Mudavadi should use the issue of ODM presidential nomination to good effect. He should make the party look so bad such that “when he leaves, he will have public sympathy.”

Another meeting took place last week, on 02 April from 6.00 pm to 2.00 am, with Hon. Uhuru, Hon. Njeru Githae, Gen. Karangi and Mr. Paul Ndung’u in attendance.

Hon. Mudavadi has also held a variety of secret meetings with Hon. Ruto at Palacina and Crowne Plaza Hotels in Nairobi, with the agenda of destroying ODM and stopping the Reform Agenda in Kenya.

I stated in that blog that Mudavadi could not deny any of this and he never did as it was all true.

Meanwhile, ODM by this time had figured what Mudavadi was up-to and true as any savvy political party could be, it turned the tables on Mudavadi.

In Part IV, I will continue chronicling KSG and finally reveal what I know to be the current state of KSG.

 

Excepts still thinking ahead: “Because of the bungling in his fake bid to challenge Raila under the false name of “internal democracy,” the schemers were faced with a dilemma: to drop the idea altogether or salvage it with its concomitant risk of total failure.”

And with that, MM was converted from a pawn to be used in the high stakes game of KSG to, in the minds of the schemers, their only hope to defeat Raila altogether in the general elections.

To say the man is now not only the unchallengeable ABR but also the de facto Vice President of the Republic of Kenya would be feebly stating the case.

Where does that leave Kalonzo Musyoka?

Plus, how does the death of Saitoti affect KSG?

Short answer: Look for who is appointed to replace Saitoti as minister for internal security and Ojode as his assistant.

All your answers will be right there.

To be continued.

 
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Posted by on June 13, 2012 in Politics

 

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The Kibaki Succession Game and Raila; The Unfolding Truth and Other Revelations Part II

In Parallels and Contrasts Between Mitt Romney and Raila Odinga, I mentioned the “anyone but Romney” spot that was variously occupied by individuals who would sooner than later crash and burn only to be replaced by others who did the same thing until the list of possibilities was exhausted, leaving Romney to occupy the spot himself without any further effort to replace him.

This scenario is eerily similar to what’s going on in the KSG.

All opponents, political and personal enemies of Raila have created this same spot for “anyone but Raila” (“ABR”) that initially was occupied by a group that proudly presented itself to the public as the KKK alliance—Kikuyu, Kalenjin and Kamba tribal alliance.

The Kenyan political scene as any other is never short of dumb ideas but the rolling out of this group of tribal leaders as KKK was so dumb, even the masters of Divide and Rule politics came out and openly told them this was a really dumb thing to do.

They heeded and quickly morphed into the so called G7.

Instead of having a grouping of 3 tribes to gang-up against Raila, it was better, the wiser minds concluded, to morph into a grouping of 7 tribes.

History will tell which was more dumber than the other one but what we do know for now, is that the so-called G7 may not exist anymore courtesy of its own unchecked ambitions and the very tribalism it was intended to exploit.

Be that as it may be, at its inception and as discussed in The Kibaki Succession Game and Raila Part I, KSG schemers featured one William Samoei Ruto as its inaugural ABR.

The inauguration was not exactly of State proportions but none other than President Mwai Kibaki himself graced the occasion in Eldoret on January 21, 2011 to announce to the world that Ruto was now the occupier of the freshly minted ABR.

Ruto will also be the first ABR to crash and burn from that spot for the reasons stated in the aforementioned blog.

No different than a spinster who goes into overdrive to find a man to marry quick before kicking or worse—and yes, there can be worse; the KSG schemers went into overdrive to find someone to replace Ruto as ABR.

The search was far and wide, even deep but each time a suitable person was identified, 10 pieces of unwanted baggage were found attached to him they could not shake him loose from.

Then the most brilliant among them—and note the key word here is “them,” put forth an idea: why not just take over ODM?

“How?” a befuddled lesser brilliant mind of the group inquired.

“Simple,” intoned the originator of the idea, “we identify someone within ODM we can marshal support within but from behind the scenes to challenge Raila for the party flag-bearer position and if we play our cards right, we can have our person nominated as ODM candidate only to destroy him in the general elections with our own true choice and leave ODM in tatters.”

“Brilliant!” exclaimed one of the octogenarians in the group, “now; who shall the chosen one be to carry out this dirty trick?” he inquired.

“Mzee; that’s simple,” came the reply from another now awake not so much of an octogenarian but close—adding, “that should be Musalia himself.”

“Why him?” inquired a previously mum veteran politician in the group seemingly dumbfounded and perplexed with where all this came from or was headed.

“Well, let’s see,” came the assuring and even commanding voice of the originator of the idea, “for one, the man is really no man of his own therefore we can mold him to whatever we wish to.”

“Second, besides the votes we can buy outright among ODM delegates to propel him to the top of ODM as its party nominee for president, we can actually easily convince even good supporters of Raila that he is a better bet for the party, given the polarizing nature of Raila’s candidacy.”

“Hmm, I like that,” intoned the now barely awake octogenarian.

“Third, given the party strength in the western part of the country, we only have a chance if we prop up and support either a Luo or Luhya and of all the potential candidates we can consider, none comes close to Musalia and even he, its rolling a dice with our money and faith.”

“What about Euni…ah, Eugine Wamalwa?”

[Laughter in the room]

“Okay, I suppose that means we are left with Musalia as our only option” growled the octogenarian bringing the discussion to an end with instructions to the lead schemers to work-out the rest of the details how to go about the scheme to install Mudavadi as ABR to succeed Ruto.

“Sir, before we close this meeting, may I inquire how do we get Mudavadi to agree to this without knowing we are simply using him only to dumb him later?” inquired one of the rare young minds in the group.

“Again; that’s easy,” the not so much of an octogenarian assured, adding “all it would take is a call from Baba.”

“And how do we get Baba to make the call, he being not part of us?” further inquired the rare young mind in the group.

“Young man; good, sharp questions that show promise you have a future in this dirty politics for those are the things you must ask and answer long before you engage in this game and we have,” came the answer from the originator of the idea, disclosing this idea did not just spring up out of nowhere; he had carefully thought it through this was just the moment to bring it to the fore within the group.

“Nothing will please Baba than to knock Raila out of the presidential run,” bemused the now gleeful originator of the idea, adding, “I know because he and I have had a chat about it and I saw with my own 4 eyes the excitement the idea aroused in him.”

Meanwhile, with his face and smile literally saying, “At your service Sirs; how can I be of use?” when the call came, MM literally said the same thing word by word.

“First, we would like you to challenge and defeat Raila as ODM flag-bearer,” came the answer.

Laughing rather loudly almost to the point of choking, MM nonetheless requested for more time to do “consultations,” which was another way of saying he is indecisive and can’t help it but would need guidance from his sidekicks who are not any better than he is, which explains much of what is going on with KSG even as I pen this blog.

“I know just how to do that,” replied the dull but still smiling high stakes politics newbie, several days later, adding, “I shall seek to replace Raila in the name of ‘internal democracy’ and if you give me enough support (read money), I surely as hell will deliver his political head to you after defeating him and taking over ODM as its leader and flag-bearer.”

The schemers and MM could not contain themselves with excitement of even the thought of MM defeating Raila as ODM flag-bearer.

And with that, the MM Project was consummated and the man installed as the reigning ABR; for how long, stay tuned.

In Part III, I will disclose what I know through my own impeccable sources and analysis as to the current state of the KSG.

Excepts thinking ahead: “Because of the bungling in his fake bid to challenge Raila under the false name of “internal democracy,” the schemers were faced with a dilemma: to drop the idea altogether or salvage it with its concomitant risk of total failure.”

And with that, MM was converted from a pawn to be used in the high stakes game of KSG to, in the minds of the schemers, their only hope to defeat Raila altogether in the general elections.

To say the man is now not only the unchallengeable ABR but also the de facto Vice President of the Republic of Kenya would be feebly stating the case.

Where does that leave Kalonzo Musyoka?

To be continued.

 
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Posted by on June 8, 2012 in Politics

 

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The Kibaki Succession Game and Raila; The Unfolding Truth and Other Revelations Part I

Kenya’s Prime Minister Raila Odinga addresses rally in Kakamega

In Parallels and Contrasts Between Mitt Romney and Raila Odinga, I posed the question why are all presidential contenders so bent on “stopping” Raila from ascending to the presidency of the Republic of Kenya.

Answering my own question, I offered the following reasons, given none of these candidates have ever bothered to give us any, hoping instead to fool people there are some noble reasons that exist out there why but actually don’t and can’t exist:

First, Raila presents the most threat to their ill-gained wealth, corruption and impunity.

In a blog to be posted soon, I will discuss 10 things that must be on the To Do List for our next president and leading that list is taking corruption head on for the first time and ensuring an end to impunity for real.

No one can make a case that passes the laugh test that there is anyone among those vying who is better suited to address corruption and impunity in Kenya than Raila himself.

In a rational society, this fact alone would be a sure-in for Raila as president.

Unfortunately, however, we are not dealing with a rational society when it comes to Kenyan politics.

Characterized as it is by individuals who would lie, distort and manipulate facts at will for their own selfish needs and without caring one whit about the average Kenyan, and given the abundance of illiteracy, tribalism and a general lack of information or sophistry among a large segment of our population, these shameless politicians have and continue to believe they can get their way regardless of truth, fact or welfare of our country.

Let’s hope not anymore.

Second, the so-called G7 or otherwise those bent on “stopping” Raila, are driven by an abnormal level of mixed hate and jealousy for Raila that is unprecedented and unparalleled both in Kenya and the rest of the world.

Every country has a presidential candidate a good segment of its population just can’t stand or simply hates but usually this is along ideological lines.

The level of hatred and intensity directed at Raila by those who hate him cannot be attributed to ideology at all.

Rather, people hate Raila or can’t stand him largely because of his tribe or based on false information and beliefs they hold to be true when it’s simply not true.

Leading in the spreading of that hate and vitriol are none other than Raila’s political opponents who know that is the only way they can hurt him politically, given they are all individually or collectively lightweights compared to Raila and his accomplishments as a leader.

Finally, but not least, the so-called G7 and other Raila haters are determined to gang against him because Raila is popular among Kenyans from all walks of life save for the tribalists and those brain-washed by the same G7 crew.

What they don’t understand is, no matter how much they smear and drag his name through the mud, Raila still remains popular and, like Mitt Romney, he will emerge at the top despite all manner of effort to stop him from getting there.

The only difference is, while Mitt Romney’s top may be the nomination as flag-bearer for the Republican party, Raila’s top will be the presidency of Kenya he was previously given the nod but not sworn.

In that blog, I deliberately left out another reason I can add now and that is, revenge.

It is not lost in anyone’s mind who follows Kenyan politics closely that Raila humiliated Moi and his pet project in 2002 by endorsing Kibaki and undisputedly making it possible for Kibaki to crushingly defeat Moi and his Uhuru project.

It would be naïve to think Moi would not want to exact some revenge by either single-handedly stopping Raila from being reelected as president, which Moi cannot do or working with others, which he can and a compelling case can be made this is exactly what the old man is doing—with his signature grin.

Knowing why all these characters are banding together to collectively block Raila from being reelected as president is only half of the story.

The rest of the story must answer the question to what extent are these characters willing and able to go to make their wish happen?

The answer to this question is frightening, to say the least.

According to impeccable sources, there is a plan afoot to impose a leader on Kenyans no different from how we had one imposed on us in 2007.

Put another way, there is underway execution of a plan to defy the people’s will and propel to State House someone who is more acceptable to the masters of corruption and impunity than one Raila Amolo Odinga.

This plan was not hatched recently.

From even long before 2007 and formation of the coalition government, the Kibaki succession game (KSG) was on and is still ongoing.

In fact, the KSG started right after Kibaki was sworn in his first term as president in January 2003.

As I noted elsewhere on my blog penned in June last year, the “excitement [of 2002 elections] was short-lived, however, because no sooner had Kibaki taken office as president did he make it known Raila was not to be a factor in his administration, let alone the prime minister he had been promised in the haggling and dealing leading up to the 2002 elections.

In the same blog linked below, I also noted, “And with that, the Kibaki Succession Game (KSG) Round 1 was on and no one on Kibaki’s camp, especially the master strategists at his inner core was even thinking 2007; they were looking ahead to 2012 because the outcome of 2007, to them, was a given regardless of what the voters had in mind.

The plan at this stage was simple: Make Raila irrelevant in the Kibaki administration notwithstanding his “Kibaki Tosha” endorsement which undisputedly made it possible for Kibaki to be elected as president in 2002.

Outwitting his rivals and opponents, including Kibaki, Raila mounted a populist campaign against the establishment, delivering them a fatalistic blow with his defeating them in their efforts to shove down the throats of Kenyans a bad constitution back in 2005.

By election day 2007, few people doubted Raila had won the hearts of Kenyans and would become the next president.

As it turned out, the few who doubted had more than doubts in mind as history will show they masterminded a rigging scheme that ensured that Raila would not see the inside of State House as president following that election.

Then, of course, came PEV.

And then the evading of a civil war and formation of the coalition government.

With the coalition government committed to paper and in place, KSG resumed.

Call it KSG Round 2 and here, the scheme was strategically similar to KSG Round 1 and that is, the idea was to once again try and make Raila irrelevant this time around in his capacity as Prime Minister.

Unfortunately for the schemers, however, Raila had one up the sleeve on them I will not disclose quite yet but leave it dangling for those able to put two and two together to figure it at out in the end.

Utilizing this “one up the sleeve” factor, Raila effectively rebuffed these efforts to make him irrelevant and, in fact, turned it to his advantage to the point the schemers had to go to Plan B.

Plan B had to do with efforts to topple Raila from the pinnacle of ODM leadership and therefore from the Kenyan political scene.

The star player in this Plan B scheming was none other than William Samoei Ruto, who quite frankly was wholly un-expecting when thrust into that role albeit willingly and gleefully so.

For more about this Plan B and why it failed, go to Who Is William Ruto Part VI: The Succession Game and Why The Scheme To Topple Raila Failed.

Meanwhile, Ocampo’x ax was falling while these schemes were busy plotting and on December 15, 2010, the ICC Chief Prosecutor made public those he says were the most responsible for PEV.

On that list was none other than William Ruto himself and his now bosom buddy, Uhuru Kenyatta.

In a normal society, one would expect one named as a suspect in such a serious case to take a low profile or otherwise try to deal with the case but, in the case of Ruto, his profile was, in fact, raised with none other than Kibaki himself publicly signaling Ruto was welcome in his inner sanctum.

Indeed, at the height of this cozy relationship with Kibaki following the Ocampo’s naming him as a crimes against humanity suspect, Ruto’s ego got so big he could not contain it—but the newfound love between the two could not last.

Much as he quickly shot to Kibaki’s inner circle, Ruto quickly found himself outside of it wiping mist off the window from where he was trying to look inside to see the goings on and wondering what happened.

The occupiers at the inner sanctum must have come to the conclusion Ruto could neither topple Raila nor could he be a viable option to support for the presidency.

That did not mean he was completely useless.

As long as they had some use for him and he had hopes he could ride on the coattails of whoever they succeeded in once again shoving down the throats of Kenyans as they did in 2007, if they do, then so much the better he hanged around and he did.

With Plan B a failure, namely, attempts to use Ruto to topple or otherwise cripple Raila as the leading presidential contender he is, the schemers were full gear on to Plan C.

Enter one Musalia Wycliffe Mudavadi.

Mudavadi’s induction into the KSG was not by accident but the outcome has been nothing but a complete roadside wrecking of the political career of an otherwise dull politician.

Okay, I may be ahead of myself here so let’s step back and examine this not-so thrilling episode in the KSG.

When the ICC confirmed crimes against humanity charges against Uhuru and Ruto early this year, it became increasingly apparent that neither of these suspects could rationally be allowed to seek the presidency and that the only way they would do so, would be against the wishes of a majority of Kenyans who have not and may never forget PEV.

With this in mind, Plan C was hatched and immediately put into action and here, the order of business was very simple: find an acceptable candidate both Uhuru and Ruto can support (read and their blind, tribal followers) and more importantly, one who would do the bidding for the masters of corruption and impunity.

Looking throughout the landscape, they saw one in the fuzzy, smiling face of one Musalia Wycliffe Mudavadi.

His face and smile literally saying, “At your service Sirs; how can I be of use?”

“First, we would like you to challenge and defeat Raila as ODM flag-bearer,” came the answer.

“I know just how to do that,” replied the dull but still smiling high stakes politics newbie, adding, “I shall seek to replace Raila in the name of ‘internal democracy’” and if you give me enough support (read money), I surely as hell will deliver his political head to you after defeating him and taking over ODM as its leader and flag-bearer.”

The schemers and MM could not contain themselves with excitement of even the thought of MM defeating Raila as ODM flag-bearer.

It should be noted, however, that KSG involves two sides playing against each other with one side represented by one team, namely the Awambo Annihilators (AA), while the other side has several teams all morphed into one and we can call this the Desperados.

It is also important to note that within the Desperados, there are two distinct camps which don’t necessarily see eye to eye on everything and one can even say they are busy scheming against each other as it is.

The so-called G7, for example, is a major wing of the Desperados but its goals and objectives are not necessarily the same as those of the Inner Sanctums who are few but wield enormous power and influence because of their proximity to Kibaki.

In Part II, I will disclose what I know through my own impeccable sources as to the current state of the KSG.

 
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Posted by on June 5, 2012 in Politics

 

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