Like racism in America, tribalism will always be with us in Kenya; it’s just how it impacts elections that we’re focused as a laser to cut back significantly and I am confident this time around we’ll be where America was in 2008 when they elected a black man in the country’s history–and probably the only one for quite sometime to come because white domination is real, even among non-racists.
In the same vein, 2022 will see a non-Kikuyu, non-Kalenjin elected as president and the odds on that are Raila.
The election of Raila but this time being sworn as president will crush tribalism but permanently so in our case–but that’s not to say it’ll still not simmer and perhaps re-emerge down the road, much as racism has started to rear its ugly head in America thanks to its chief enablers in the high office.
That being said, let me address your specific false allegation you have made in your post:
[I am in this blog responding to the same netter I usually engage and respond to because he raises arguments, phony as they maybe at times, that others would raise and so my decision to post them here for a wider audience than where they initially appear]
You say, “Problem with your team is that you assume Uhuru will support Raila and that Kikuyus will be united in supporting whatever Uhuru tells them.”
False in your second part, but true in the first part. We know hatred of Raila in some parts of Central is deep and is going to take some heavy lifting on the part of Uhuru to bring a good segment of it to Raila column.
The rest, we’re not writing off but strategically speaking we know we can exclude them in factoring the equations for where we’ll need to be in terms of 50%+1.
Remember, Raila has won at least 2 times, or at least once if you exclude 2013 which no one won but he did so with less than 15% of the vote from Central.
So, the only task ahead is for Uhuru to deliver a respectable portion of the Central electorate and we’re good to go.
That we know he’ll do and you can take that to the bank and cash it, if you care to. I know you don’t as you’d rather stick with what you believe, which is fine.
To be fair, given our country’s history with political deal, I would admit I was one who was urging caution in wholly embracing the handshake because I believed it could be a trap for Raila.
I created a 5-box matrix scale to measure the authenticity and viability of the handshake and as previously blogged, 3 of those items have thus far checked out with 2 remaining which depend on each other.
One happens, we’re home.
That’s what I am watching for and sooner than later it shall come to pass as to what the entry would be, one way or the other.
The converse, of course, is also possible, which means not exactly a loss or even toss-up as to prospects, but advantage Raila.
You say, “Kikuyu can vote for Raila but it will take more than UK.” Wrong. This assertion is simply a version of disrespect for Uhuru but I am happy to say he’ll shock you all.
The worst competitor in any game, is one disrespected for he or she will teach you a lesson when you least expected and busy counting chickens before they hatch, which is basically your leader is doing ditto the rest of Tangatanga, ati Uhuru hatawashinda.
You’ll all see.
You say, “He must bring everybody on board and work on providing evidence that he will do better than Ruto.” I assume by “He,” you mean Raila but that obviously ignores the fact BOTH Uhuru and Raila are ALREADY working to bring everyone on board and NO, they don’t need to make the case why Raila will be better than Ruto for it is enough we don’t need another Kalenjin president as of mothers from the rest of the communities that sire children haven’t sired a child to be president besides the two communities.
That, folks, is what’s at the core of this and the reason we have the handshake and BBI to implement it.
Let’s not fool ourselves, or pretend that it is not.
You say, “Right now only Mwangi Paul is in ODM and yet I keep on hearing that Kikuyus will vote for ODM.”
Again, you’re looking at things from a tribal prism and what I’ll keep telling you and others is we’re moving the country past that. Many of us have always been there, but we now bring the rest of the country; or at least, a good majority of the country where who you vote for doesn’t count on what tribe you belong.
As a Kisii, I am proud my community as is the case with a few others has always divided its vote and not blindly voting as a black as is the case with many other tribes and this is the model we must apply for the rest of the country.
To be sure, and the reason I am specifically saying I am Kisii, is no one is as naïve as to suggest that we abandon our heritage for the sake of eradicating tribalism; far from it.
We can end tribalism while at the same time preserving our heritages and ethnicity, which is exactly what the handshake and BBI are designed to do.
That being said, the elections of 202 (or 2021) will be won not by ODM, or Jubilee or whatever; rather, the elections will be won by the spirit and a new alliance in the making. That’s all that matters, not individuals, or individual parties.
You can stick with your belief “No Kikuyu will vote for ODM” all you wish, and to that all I can tell you we know even in the past, more than 10% of Kikuyus voted for Raila (CORD and NASA) against all odds so you can’t come from there to ZERO Kikuyus not voting for Raila. That will be going backwards and that we ain’t doing, not when we have the handshake and BBI.
You say, “Also, Kalonzo needs to be courted for Kamba to support Raila again.” Let me just say Raila knows how to get votes and will not be needing advise from you or anyone else besides his team on how to do that.
You say, “ODM peed on their votes when they grabbed all political funds and forgot that Raila got those votes from them too.” This is just a false allegation or ill-informed at best.
No need to go into the weeds on this but let me just inform you and others that ODM has not “grabbed” political funds.
NASA never set a formula to share political funds by its constituent members so each member must look to funds as provided under the Political Parties Act, which gives ODM the upper hand in deciding on how the funds will be shared.
That process is ongoing and no decision has been made to that effect but that doesn’t mean that ODM has “grabbed” the funds.
In due time, the matter will be resolved and I am sure it’s part of ongoing negotiations for new alliances.
You say, “Raila is a very short sighted politician.” False.
You cannot find a more far-seeing politician alive in Kenya today than one Raila Amolo Odinga.
Like father, like son.
Someone once said of Jaramogi he was like a giraffe as he saw far.
Raila has followed suit and not surprisingly so.
You say, “He only thinks only of today does not look at the future.” Again, FALSE.
Read again what I have just said above.
You say, “He has done to MM, Weta, Kalonzo and others what he did to Ruto in 2008.”
And what is that?
You say, “Very good, excellent wasting votes.” It’ll be redundant to say false, so, let me just say not true.