RSS

Category Archives: Uncategorized

Uhuru’s Break-up with Ruto Is Irreversible

Uhuru and Ruto(1)

In politics, optics are as important as substance so anyone is free to interpret optics as they fancy it’s a question of how most people see it.

President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto showed up at today’s Madaraka Day celebrations donning matching or nearly matching suits, shoes, red ties and masks which had some Kenyans excited, especially on social media wondering if the two have reconciled and returned to their earlier days bromance where they were also wearing matching shirts and ties to project their joined at the hip brotherly love.

An interesting question to ask nonetheless is whether the donning of this matching attire was meant to be a statement or coincidental? That’s something none of us can tell or know for sure, but given nothing is coincidental in politics, at least not of this level of detail, one can assume there was some coordination to convey a message, leaving the further question, what message?

If history is anything to go by, wiser counsel is to not assume much from this because, two politicians laughing and high fiving each other today does not mean they will do so tomorrow if their interests diverge.

Indeed, even forgetting about history for a moment and just look at what has happened to Ruto in the past few weeks, the political whupping he has received and the damage is irreversible at this point.

Right now and to the foreseeable future, there’s nothing Ruto can do to reverse course on which his political demise is on for at least 2022 politics.

It is said anything is possible in politics but that’s an overstatement as the requisite conditions and circumstances must be right for that to be the case.

While Ruto can throw in the towel in as far as succeeding Uhuru goes, and seek whatever crumps the system may throw his way come 2022, fact is the man from Sugoi is politically finished and his ambition for 2022 came crashing when all his backers in the Senate abandoned and did not even bother to put up a fight against the purge that took place there.

Others have wobbled and shown signs or even outright told friends they will not be there for Ruto if the choice came to between backing him or doing as Uhuru wishes.

Indeed, according to one number cruncher I know who is privy to an analysis that has been done as to who is likely to vote for who and why on the question of impeaching Ruto, if a motion to that effect is brought in the national assembly, and if the ongoing Jubilee negotiations with national leaders for a grand coalition holds, Uhuru is short between 8 and 15 votes of the 233 needed to impeach Ruto, if he opts to go this route.

That’s a number that Uhuru can whip and have their votes within minutes.

According to the same source, the votes are there to remove Ruto in the Senate–and by a large margin.

Wachana na impeachment kwa sasa; that’s the mother of all battles but there is smaller though significant battle to be fought and won and that is continued purging of Ruto loyalists this time at the National Assembly where efforts to save Duale appear to have failed and now he’s facing the chop.

I said the other day only Murathe can save Duale from being axed but I have changed my mind and now say Murathe has punted because someone else wants Duale out more than Murathe wants him in.

My new thinking is partially informed by recent reporting that it is now up-to Uhuru who really doesn’t care one way or another to decide whether Duale stays as majority leader or is out.

The irony of ironies as I see it is this:

If Ruto is spared the humiliation of removal from office by impeachment (which I advised against in my weekend oped) to politically live to fight another day for the presidency (2027 or 2032), then he must agree to (a) the purging that is next to take place at the National Assembly, including removal of Duale as majority leader and (b) not to whine at all about several CSs deemed loyal to him that will soon be shown the exit door to make room for the new government of national unity in formation.

In my belief, what you saw today is quintessentially a part of that amicable divorce if Ruto can live up-to his end of this lowly bargain that leaves him an empty suit wandering around the walls of power with absolutely nothing to do but pass time.

Interestingly, and relevant for this matching attire excitement, Ruto’s problems lie not with Uhuru, but the very system that put them together in the first place, and later in office without the votes required under the constitution.

That system calls the shots, not Uhuru.

Unfortunately for Ruto, his calculations and schemes at the expense of Uhuru has alienated him from the man such that even he has come around to let the system have its way without him trying to stop them or make it harder.

I have personally met and chatted with Uhuru twice and the last time was at a prominent Kenyan politician’s home just after passage of the 2010 constitution. On both occasions, I was very impressed how articulate and charming the man was and not for a moment did I think I was talking to this person the media depicted as a clueless someone born with a silver spoon in his mouth.

That man, I surmised then, and remain so convinced today, is shrewd, intelligent, knows what he is doing and underrate him at your own peril.

Ruto underrated him at his peril and that peril is the music he is facing right now, with more to come down the road.

I also know the man rewards loyalty like no other; meaning, had Ruto remained loyal through and through to him without undercutting and remaining quiet as his foot soldiers insulted and disrespected him, Ruto would been in exactly the same situation Raila was with Kibaki through elections: someone his coalition partner and the system did not want to see the inside of State House as president but waited to election day to say so loudly and clearly.

In other words, yes, had Ruto remained loyal to Uhuru, he would have gone to 2022 as a leading presidential candidate to succeed Uhuru and even probably carried the day in votes but only to be rigged out by the system because they just cannot have the man in office as president.

For many, many reasons not the least of which is their fear he will finish them, especially those who have let it known from the very beginning he sits where he sits as a matter of convenience for them, not some self-made hustler prowess he does not tire to project though rendered useless by recent events with more to come.

So, my take is there is no bromance here it is likely Uhuru has given Ruto a nice send-off from State House as the man may not even be there as DP come next Madaraka Day, or even Jamhuri Day unless he lives through the pain of political austerity measures Uhuru and the system have tailor made for him.

UPDATE

Since posting this blog, Uhuru had a Jubilee PG meeting and Duale’s job was saved. Here is what I posted elsewhere as an update:

I have been saying for a long time the only person who would have saved Duale’s job as majority leader is David #Murathe as #Uhuru did not care either way if #Duale remained. I changed my mind and said it was now a toss up between Murathe and one other significant person who wanted Duale gone. As it was reported in the media, it was Uhuru to decide which of the two men will have their way.

It turns out Murathe has and now Duale must do as Murathe (read: the system) tells him to do and will only be happy to do so. This is also why it was easy for Uhuru to lean in Murathe’s direction because Duale has never once insulted or disrespected him and neither has he failed to push through the president’s agenda as told. In other words, he keeps his job in part because he has been clever in not offending the hands the fed him.

 

 
 

Tags: , , , ,

Removal of Senator Ledama Olekina from CPAIC

Ledama Olekina(1)

The exchange below occurred elsewhere but am cutting and pasting here for easy reference, and for those of you who have not seen it to peruse it.

As usual, the exchange is with a blogger KM. I am SO.

KM:

SO,

“Please advise your buddy to comb his hair first so that he can comb Agwambo,” said KM sharing a video of Senator Ledama Olekina, a friend I have known for many years, in which the senator was breathing fire about efforts to remove him from the Chairmanship of CPAIC, a powerful senate committee he maintains he was properly elected to.

His party bigwigs don’t think so and the have denied him the opportunity to serve as chairman on grounds he went around them and got elected using their rival party votes, which is against party policy and therefore a disloyal move.

Nothing parties hate than disloyalty and the party, ODM, did not waste any time to register its displeasure by removing Ledama as a member of the committee, which the party has total and unfettered authority to do, which in turn therefore means Ledama cannot be chairman of the committee.

To the comment by KM, I responded,

KM,
As I have previously said, Ledama is making a mistake but I can also tell you it is an intentional mistake. Those who have been following this closely have a good idea or know why and thus my message to my good friend to re-think and politically live to fight another day over things that matter to him and the Maa community.

Being chair of CPAC this year is not one of those but, again, we have a good idea or know why he has chosen to pick and fall on this otherwise meaningless fight.

As I also previously said, his fall from ODM and even joining TangaTanga will not have any effect on what lies ahead for Uhuru/Raila and BBI.

Now, I have said I and others close to Raila and ODM inner circle know why Ledama is doing this to himself but he very much gave a big hint in this clip and his interview the other day I believe KTN when he says he is young and can wait to rise again 20 years after ostensibly the current crop of leaders are gone or elderly as to continue having him pay the price for what he is about to do, but even then he is mistaken.

Yes, the short-term rewards may be great for him for taking this move–or at least so he believes but politically it is a loser proposition as it is impossible for him to outshine whoever now emerges as the Maa kingpin, something he was close to achieving.

KM responded, and then I dissected his response as follows:

KM, I know you’re speaking from lack of inside knowledge while I know what that is but can’t divulge more than I am saying but let me say this in response to your comments now in as carefully as I can without disclosing what I know that need not be public:

You say, “Who said one can only become a Maa Kingpin via ODM?”

Not me. Read again what I said and how I put it and you should conclude the point I am making is whoever becomes the Maa kingpin for 2022 will be there for his life therefore Ledama can only hope he demises before then for him to have another chance at becoming the kingpin. His best chance was now.

You say, “That is where Raila goes wrong. He assumed he would get Kalenjin votes without Ruto but see what happened.”

While I agree with you Raila made a mistake in not courting and keeping Ruto for 2013 as I privately urged him and publicly blogged for months and months, the situation here is different therefore it is not making the same mistake regarding courting and keeping the Maa community vote.

You say “Raila needs Ledema more than Ledema needs Raila.”

False. While Ledama was certainly a rising star in Maa community and ODM, were he to exit ODM, Raila and Co will easily groom someone else, especially if reading from the same page with Uhuru.

You say, “It is such arrogance and being out of reality that will see Raila age and leave without ever sleeping in state house.”

This is just angry rhetoric so let me not bother to respond.

You say, “If his thinking is the same as yours I feel sorry for Raila.”

Your feeling sorry for Raila means he is doing something right; it’s inversed psychology I often laugh when I see it because we are all guilty of same at one point or another.

You say, “You court votes, not pee on them.”

True but no one is peeing on any votes here.

You say, “For heavens sake, he does not need Ongeri who may only give him money.”

You are assuming ODM moved to deny Ledama the position of Chairman because of Ongeri as all of you have been led to believe; however, that is is technically correct, but there is an overriding reason which we know why ODM removed Ledama from CPAIC.

You say, “Problem with Raila is that he looks at pockets and wallets and knows Ongeri will give him money which Ladema lacks.”

ALL politicians look for people with money to support them and if they can also bring votes, so much the better.

You say, ” That is being greedy.”

Obviously false, given the fact I have stated above.

You say, “It will cost him votes.”

It will cost Raila some votes but the gains are greater than those votes.

You say, “Hope he is not hoping to raise money through bribery as has been the case in the past.”

This is a false smear you are throwing out with no evidence but not surprising and no need to address it either beyond this.

He had no rebuttal; he could not possibly have one!

 
 

Tags: , , , , , ,

Some in Central May Not Be Ready for Other than Kikuyu or Kale President, But Time Is Nigh

Flag(1)
As I occasionally do, I am cutting and pasting here my exchanges with one or two bloggers I usually engage on matters relating to Kenyan politics for both easy reference, and for you to peruse if you have not seen the posts elsewhere.

This exchange is by someone I refer to as KM, previously a diehard Uhuru supporter but now calls the man names and is all in for Ruto because he hates Raila and does not care for the handshake between Uhuru and Raila. He denies he does not hate Raila or Luos but what he says betrays that, except I would not say he hates Luos as whole as other tribalists from his region do.

This exchange was from May 10, 2020:

SO (that is how I am referred to)

Citing a blog touting Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria as Ruto’s running mate for 2022, the blogger noted:

Kiambu, Gatundu roots. Kuria is popular but Bill ought to seek a deputy from elsewhere. May be Kiunjuri but Meru, Muranga, Kirinyaga or Embu would be his best pick. Raila likely to get Waiguru or PK

All you need to remember is that on the ballot Uhuru will not appear anywhere. It will be Raila vs Ruto. Only a liar and somebody outvof their minds can tell you that today Raila can beat Ruto in Mt. Kenya. It will be a hard sell in Mt. Kenya and Wanjohi knows that. I would bet my votes on that area if I were Agwambo

My response:

KM it doesn’t matter who Ruto picks as his running mate; the outcome for 2022 is going to be pre-determined and unless he throws in the towel and seeks crumbs in the new government as I posited in my last week’s oped, the man from Sugoi won’t be in that government.

Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro is quoted in the article saying this:

“Whether tyrants and dictators like it or not, Moses Kuria is the incontestable Mt Kenya spokesperson and deputy president of the Republic of Kenya from 2022. If dynasties want power or cling to power, they can use KPLC power or battery power. We’re Africans and Africa is our business.”

I saw this yesterday on his Twitter and responded to him as follows:

You Ruto diehards are drunk with something but when you sober up, you’ll realize and appreciate even in this day and age long past assassinations, daring, disrespecting and insulting a president has its price to pay.

His response,

SO

All you need to remember is that on the ballot Uhuru will not appear anywhere. It will be Raila vs Ruto. Only a liar and somebody out of their minds can tell you that today Raila can beat Ruto in Mt. Kenya. It will be a hard sell in Mt. Kenya and Wanjohi knows that. I would bet my votes on that area if I were Agwambo

My response:

KM I am resigned to repeat this to no end but here we go: Raila won the presidency outright in 2007 and 2017 without the Kikuyu vote, which is really what we are talking about here.

He will do so again in 2022 except this time with a bigger margin than what he received in those two years. It is therefore irrelevant by what margin Ruto gets the Kikuyu vote, the rest of the country will be voting for change and the change will be spear-headed by Uhuru himself and others from Central (read the system) who know and agree enough is enough with this rotation of the presidency between two tribes.

Attached is a screen shot of a message from a successful and influential Kikuyu businessman who was initially critical of my penning what he termed “40 vz 2” oped but he changed his mind and agreed with my position, after I explained in more detail than what I wrote in the one piece, including sharing with him my Open Letter to HE President Emilio Mwai Kibaki, EGH, MP and Out Brothers and Sisters From Kikuyuland Needs To Give Us a Break from Yet Another Kikuyu Presidency both of which I penned prior to 2013 elections.

I told the gentleman in this case, we need a break from yet again another Kale presidency. He finally agreed and attached is his reply to that effect and my response. I am obviously withholding his identity but all I can say is, it is great to have men and women of his stature to see things our way, and the Kenyan way for that matter.

His response,

SO
That is in your imagination. Only valid argument is for 2007. Let us see how far Wanjohi will be able to him. You will still say he won in 22 when he goes back to Uhuru for a second fake swearing. He will need majority of Mt. Kenya. Also reduce Kamva votes on his tally and will understand why ODMers are desparate to get UK support. Unfortunately, Mt. Kenya region is giving Wanjohi the middle finger.

My response,
KM,

Whether it’s in my imagination or not is irrelevant; I am saying what I am, based on what I know and I am not alone in with that knowledge or view.

You obviously are basing yours entirely on the false belief that Mt. Kenya is Kenya when it is not. I’ll give you that a vast population of Kikuyus in Central will vote against Raila (and therefore benefit Ruto) simply because of their hatred of Raila and some in RV will do so for their misplaced fear of being evicted from there were Ruto to lose as he will but neither of that is going to stop Uhuru and Raila as well as the system in ensuring BBI implementation is a reality.

The ONLY way that dynamic changes, is if Uhuru reneges on the handshake and puts his weight and therefore that of the system behind someone else. That someone else will be the preside and what you can take to the bank is that someone else WON’T be Ruto.

I am all for that and even warming up to the idea of having my old friend CS Matiang’i being the compromise candidate.

 
 

Tags: , , , ,

Sobering Thought About Coronavirus

Coronavirus

It is my last day of self-quarantine after return from travel and all through this time, I have limited my time of watching news to a bare few minutes at the beginning and end of the day because there’s simply too much and overwhelming information and, worse, misleading, wrong, erroneous and even lying from places you would not expect such as the White House.

A certain person who shall remain nameless has been busy trashing institutions and career professionals such that even CDC scientists who the public should have 100% trust in what they’re saying are finding themselves weary of the man with the big cane and what he may do should the cross or contradict him, which is wrong and a condemnable disservice to the nation. But that’s for another day.

For now, a sobering thought: scientists are saying 96% chance #coronavirus came from bat, which transmitted to farm animals then to human; if original bat is not found, chances are it is still out there continuing to transmit the virus.

Worse, there are hundreds of thousands of “intermediate hosts,” meaning the animals that the bat transmitted to such that even if we get rid of the virus, there’s still a chance the virus could reemerge.

The solution is to find the original transmitter bat or original source for the virus, a daunting task made only worse with existing travel and other restrictions.

It’s times where only prayer offers hope and comfort that all shall be well albeit after losses in lives, livelihoods and other things people are accustomed to and even taken for granted. So hear us God.

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on April 6, 2020 in Politics, Uncategorized

 

Tags:

Kemei Murder: Ruto Is Innocent

Kemi(1)

Sergeant Kipyegon Kenei

Deputy President William Ruto gave an impassioned speech during the burial of Sergeant Kipyegon Kenei, a security officer in Ruto’s office who got entangled with the Echesa Fake Military Procurement scandal that has quickly turned from a daring scam into a cold-blooded murder case.

The DP was at one point almost in tears as he professed his innocence and non involvement whatsoever in the murder of this yet another Kenyan whose murder can either be silencing him so as not to spill what he knows, or to implicate Ruto and therefore bring him down on that basis alone.

Those are the only two options.

There’s no in-between scenario to explain this murder.

None.

And just so it’s clear, had Ruto out and out broken into a tearful cry, it would not have been crocodile tears. Far from it.

But that’s one half of the story–the innocence or absence of it in the Kemei murder.

The DP did not just profess his innocence; he went into the offensive daring anyone, including the system he says is out to get him or otherwise stop him from becoming our next president, to even kill him, if they have to for he says he’s not going to be cowed from seeking the presidency he no doubt believes is his this time around.

The man from Sugoi singled out Kinoti as representative of the system and basically told him his gloves are off and he’s ready for the fight.

On this one, I believe the DP is, indeed, innocent of Kemei’s murder as he so passionately insinuated, even as an unwitting participant but wiser counsel would have been for him not to take the battle to Kinoti, and therefore the president himself as he has.

It’s an unnecessary escalation but the gloves are off, with the system having taken them off first, and now joined by the DP.

Someone will get a KO and bettors who don’t like losing any money will put their odds on the system delivering the proverbial KO.

If not, Ruto will be president for life.

And the country will then see an exodus of mostly men scrambling for life and safety outside the borders and out of reach of Ruto’s own Kinoti.

Stay tuned.

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on March 7, 2020 in Politics, Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , , , ,

What David Murathe Said About Matiang’i Means

Sabina-Chege-with-Fred-Matiangi-

CS Fred Matiang’i with Sabina Chege, Women Rep for Murang’a

Anyone who follows what I write and what I have said about David Murathe, and in particular what he told me about Raila just before 2007 elections will know why what Murathe said about Matiang’i, which you can read more as reported by the media in Murathe Says Matiang’i Fit For President.

I have also said here and elsewhere except my column where I don’t write about Matiang’i for reasons I know that there’s a camp within the system that prefers to have Matiang’i/Gideon as successor to Uhuru and Ruto, respectively.

There’s, of course, the more definitive and able one-to decide-and-do over everyone wing of the system that prefers Baba/Gideon with UK as all powerful PM, or some other less powerful PM.

Which one of the two wings will prevail is anyone’s guess.

Odds are the latter will prevail unless BBI goes south, which is highly unlikely in which case they’ll abandon their lukewarm support of Raila and adopt the former’s position and if they do, there’s an element of that strategy I and the few who know, know that would make it advisable for Matiang’i to decline the offer when offered.

One thing that’s for certain and you can deduce from the above is Ruto won’t see the inside of State House as president come 2022 so say BOTH wings of the system and that you can stagger to the closest bank and cash if you don’t believe.

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on March 2, 2020 in Politics, Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , , ,

Senator Ledama Olekina Arrested

Ledama Olekina(1)

Senator Ledama is a friend I have known for a long time and can vouch for him the man is not a tribalist or hater; he’s just articulating Maa issues though a statement he made at the Narok BBI rally is problematic and is what earned him the arrest.

I am sure knowing him that’s not a statement he will repeat but he will and should continue articulating other Maa issues and there’s nothing wrong with that.
The problematic statement is “Maa land belongs to Maa people” and that’s just not true under the Constitution.

Kenyans are free to own property and live anywhere in the country, which my friend also acknowledged in the same speech. The dual issues he is trying to articulate relate to (a) land use where those who buy are not following the law to develop the land bought and (b) exploiting poor land owner sellers, which is a nationwide problem.

Nothing wrong with that.

Let the good senator clarify his sentiments and be let go to fight for Maa issues consistent with the law and spirit of BBI.

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on February 25, 2020 in Uncategorized