For those who follow this blog or column, you’ll know I rarely separate Uhuru and his older brother Raila when it comes to analyzing their moves as they must go in tandem.
However, that’s not to mean the two leaders are in agreement 100%; rather, I am sure either men being the savvy politicians they are, they will be the first ones to admit you always must leave something for yourself just in case things don’t go in the direction you intend, even as you walk in tandem and principally agree on everything that matters.
Right now, there is an open question whether Uhuru would want to be part of the next government come 2022. The prevailing view among most analysists and political observers is, No, Uhuru will retire from politics after 2022 and join other retired presidents younger as he is, compared to the other two Wazees.
What Uhuru decides about this question obviously has a bearing on what happens with Raila’s own prospects in the succession game, even as Uhuru is committed to honor the handshake and her baby, meaning the handshake’s baby, BBI.
A blogger by the name James Ole Mugo posted and posited as follows on his Facebook page:
1. Prime minister – Uhuru (Jubilee party).
2. Deputy prime minister (1) – Musalia (ANC).
3. Deputy prime minister (2) – Gideon (KANU).
4. President – (Raila).
5. Vice president – (Kalonzo Musyoka).
It does make some sense, and I wonder how one person will beat all these guys.
I then shared this post in a Kenya forum and noted as follows:
KM na wengine, this is but one realistic possibility, Mugo’s question is rhetorical, meaning Ruto can’t beat that lineup.
To this, the aforementioned KM responded and I took the liberty to respond to him as follows and I share as I often do for the benefit of others not in that forum:
KM your’e sometimes very good when peddling or spinning Mt. Kenya anti-Raila/anti-Uhuru/pro-Ruto propaganda but you’ve surprised me in how clueless you are with this or either that you know but are doing your best to engage in alternate reality Trump style.
Be as it may, let me enlighten you and others or otherwise rectify your misconceptions:
You say, “This will go no where. First Uhuru will not run. Nobody except a few who think his bid can help them wants him run. Remove his name first.”
The mistake you’re making here or what you don’t know is Uhuru need not run for any office other than leader of a political party to accomplish what needs to be accomplished.
I know you will not even think about disagreeing that Uhuru will easily be elected as party leader in the upcoming Jubilee elections so no issue there, meaning, that piece is in place for what needs to be done next in lining up 2022 as I have been alluding to.
You say, “To be prime minister, one must be MP.” No; not necessarily! Although it’s true in most parliamentary systems the prime minister is also an elected MP, this is Kenya we are talking about and hybrid parliamentary system so we can and are likely to have a PM who is simply the leader of the party with the most seats in Parliament or one who heads a coalition that does. wrong!
You say, “Remove those who cannot run for parliamentary seats from the list.” I am sure you now see vying for parliament is irrelevant relative to PM position.
You say, “So Uhuru will run under Jubilee or ODM?“–again, irrelevant in Uhuru becoming PM. Btw, even if it were the case one MUST be MP to be PM, Uhuru can and shall be an MP even if your dreams EVERYONE voted against him in Gatundu. Hell; Uhuru can be sworn MP of ANY constituency in Kenya.
You say, “Kalonzo will be anywhere with Raila.” I think you mean “Kalonzo will NOT be anywhere with Raila” and to that I tell you it’s also irrelevant though it’s unlikely he would turn down that opportunity. Quite frankly, I wish he turns it down because I know who will easily take it and bring even more into the equation.
You say “Use dump move by Agwambo and Uhuru will not serve him [Kalonzo]. Remove Kalonzo from that list and we can talk then.” Again, Kalonzo being on the list is no big deal; we can remove and replace him with any number of several individuals quite capable of filling the slot and even bringing more to the table than does Kalonzo so this is no biggie at all.
You say, “Ignore Ruto and shock will find out.” On this one, you may be surprised–and I have hinted and even openly said as much: Ruto puts tail between his legs, humbles himself then Uhuru and Raila can accommodate him in the new government structure.
I’ll be all for that but first things first, let him not act as though he has more or bigger balls than all before him who have been cast in the same position, namely, trying to beat a system that doesn’t want them.
You say, “PM post is only promissory deal.” No; PM post is a new position to be recreated in the government and is NOT promised to anyone but a person meeting the qualifications and requirements to hold the office.
You say, “If Raila gives Kalonzo VP post (very very unlikely), Ruto will get Kiunjuri or another Mt. Kenya fellow. The rest is history.” Again, PM position is not a brown bag to be given to anyone willy-nilly. There will be requirements as to who qualifies to get the position and that’s how the position will be given. Of course, the lineup we are talking about is a group of smart, savvy politicians best positioning themselves to grab everything come 2022 and nothing wrong or contradictory about that.
You say, “What makes you think Ruto will not give PM post to Uhuru or Mudavadi?” Again, the PM position is not a brown bag; and even if it were and Ruto gave it to Mudavadi, then Mudavadi will have a choice to make: take Ruto’s or Uhuru’s; only an idiot will take Ruto’s and not the president’s.
You say, “There will be several folks on the ballot, some hoping to get Mt. Kenya votes Raila is assuming will be his via Uhuru.” No; Raila only needs some of the votes in Mt. Kenya, which he’ll get more than before with his younger brother and hanshake partner Mr. UK being a factor; the rest can go to Ruto or whoever and it’ll be irrelevant in the equation.
You say, “So with Kalonzo, Mudavadi running and so out of PM posts and Uhuru not running in Gatundu (no chance, zero, Nada of Uhuru being MP or running on ODM), what options does ODM have?” You are posing a question based on FALSE premises therefore no answer is called for as that answer will also be FALSE.
You say, “So you think BBI will know have all these posts?” Yes
You say, “Aren’t they also going to help Ruto?” Not anywhere near how they will help Kenya and the forces that want to take Kenya in a new direction of inclusivity and definitely away from this false and backward belief only sons of two tribes in Kenya can lead the country as president.
You say, “PM post will go the party with largest members or coalition. So Uhuru will be PM under which party? ODM?” I refer you to what I have said about this above and that is, irrelevant in the final analysis: No need to be MP to be PM and, even it were, Uhuru can be MP of ANY constituency in Kenya of his liking.
You say, “Jubilee elections will be in march. Will then see if Uhuru will be in control of the party.” On this, we are on the same page. When David Murathe resigned from Jubilee, I opined that Jubilee is therefore dead. I then expected an exodus of prominent MPs Aisha Jumwaing Jubilee but that did not come to pass; now, looking back, the strategists advising Uhuru came up with a different plan and I love it.
Murathe spilled it out yesterday but it has yet to reverberate as it will and people will know hii si mchezo (this is no game) even though one can argue it’s one but high stakes.
You say, “He [Uhuru] will either retire in 22 or be forced to retire.” Neither will happen. I can tell you I know someone who speaks to Uhuru very regularly that told me sometime back and in no uncertain terms that Uhuru will NOT seek any office come 2022, and that he will retire and I believed him.
However, much as I know he was telling me the truth as he knew it, even he must be surprised by the recent turn of events on Uhuru’s position it’s likely Uhuru himself changed his mind and now wants to do exactly what Murathe outlined, which I support it 100%.
You say, “Is Raila still interested in a powerful PM post but weak presidency?” I don’t know but personally I wouldn’t mind that being the case.
I’ll address a couple of issues I see related to this last point in my next oped, which has to do with how Uhuru and Raila serving in the same government would be relative to their statuses.