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What’s Really Going on In Kibra By-Election?

18 Sep

Uhuru and Ruto(1)

The Star is reporting that Uhuru Assures His Support in Kibra By-Election

This is after the same paper reported the president has no time to campaign for Ruto’s project in Kibra.

Reporting in both of these news stories is sound.

However, a more closer analysis of the reporting reveals even though the reporting is good, meaning, there’s no factually false or unsupported reporting, it is the case what we have going on here is (a) the president NOT supporting Ruto’s project Mariga to win and (b) he expects him to lose.

Here’s why:

First, even though the credible newspaper says in its first headline above that the president has “assured” Mariga of his support, nowhere in the story itself does the reporter details or even give us any suggestion as to how or what the president intends to do to assure Mariga victory.

Even a political novice will tell you appearing with the candidate and campaigning for him even once in Kibra, will be one sure way of assuring the candidate any better chance, let alone victory.

Second, the story does not quote the president even once to as to what his views are on Mariga. Not once. Not only that, the story has not a single quote from Raphael Tuju, the Cabinet Secretary without portfolio, who is also the Secretary General of the soon to be moribund Jubilee.

That speaks volumes neither the president, nor Jubilee A are interested in the Ruto project Mariga in the Kibra by-elections, otherwise they would have gone on the record to say exactly what they want in the contest.

Instead, they have let journalists and the rest of us to make what we can from it, with the Star saying this is good enough to “assure” Mariga he’s not an outcast after all.

That’s technically correct; were the president not to do so, namely, invite or be seen with Mariga, it would have an even more clear message this is a waste of time and someone still trying to wag his tail.

For those of us who follow these things closely, here is my take on this:

The man from Sugoi is playing chess with the president; he demanded that Jubilee field a candidate–and more specifically, his project Mariga and the party bosses led by Uhuru had to make a decision: refuse to field a Jubilee candidate and give the Hustler a talking point to beat their heads with, or let him have it knowing fully he was at least not MP material to beat ODM candidate.

They were only gleeful when it also emerged the man is not qualified to vie.

When the matter went to IEBC, I expected the Tribunal will affirm the disqualification and so did a couple of well placed people in Nairobi I privately discuss things like this.

However, when I got up the next morning and saw the headline news that IEBC had confirmed Mariga as eligible to vie, I immediately re-analyzed the whole thing and then saw what the strategy must be.

My conclusion from the new analysis was simply put, had the powers that be wanted to have Mariga stopped at the qualification step; they would have had it done and the decision would be fully backed under the law.

As previously noted, Mariga’s disqualification was one of those issues that fall in the gray area of the law, therefore, which side the decision went, had to depend on who is pulling the strings behind the scenes at IEBC.

To be sure, I cannot rule out that Ruto is or can; in fact, this will be the test going to the future, and especially ahead of 2022.

If there’s any reason to believe Ruto has more moles in IEBC than Uhuru–and the system will know this, Chebukati is out of the door long before he knows what hit him.

Ditto those the system determined are up-to no good for 2022.

Note I am not saying up-to no good for 2017, 2018 or even 2013.

That’s now a matter of history books and thanks to the handshake.

The team can only survive for 2022 if Uhuru and Baba agree they should.

So, in this ongoing chess game between Uhuru and Ruto, Uhuru–who just take my word knows Mariga is going nowhere–invited Mariga to come to State House and, of course, the Hustler cannot miss out on a photo-op like this, so he tagged along.

It’s his project, after all.

From the Hustler’s perspective, this is a bad day; a very bad day for him because he is being outwitted every step of the way.

There’s is something he’s desperately baying the president to foolishly fall for but it ain’t happening.

 

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Posted by on September 18, 2019 in Politics, Uncategorized

 

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