From a netter:
I have been watching the funeral service on Inooro. Ruto is now speaking. Those saying that Ruto does not have support in Central should have watched the reception. The most popular politicians there with the welcome and vigele gele remains Uhuru, Ruto and Kabogo. Folks insisted on Kabogo being introduced as a Governor. Waititu’s disaster makes Kabogo, now popularly known as Kaba (afadhali) Kabogo.
Speaking for myself, I have never said and neither would anyone serious say Ruto does not have support in Central; he does. His problem is not that he doesn’t have support there; rather, his problem is he ain’t seeing the inside of State House as president because the people who decide that (not voters) have said he won’t and that is the end of the story. If in doubt, ask Raila but I know you won’t be able to so just take my word for it or keep hoping I am wrong.
That being the case, it’s irrelevant who is popular today in Central, and that is not to say anything about what that would be more special than all other parts of the country. This is precisely what BBI is intended to fix and it shall, namely, and as Waiguru aptly put it, shedding the belief and mentality among some in Central that mothers did not only give birth to president material only among the Kikuyus and Kalenjins.
We have known this all along and preached it to no end very happy to finally see Uhuru and other powers that be coming to the same conclusion.
We know old habits die hard, meaning, we know there are many in Central still caught up in old tribal thinking that a Luo and Raila specifically cannot be president but the pharmacies will have enough anti-depressants to provide relief for those who will succumb to depression following Raila being sworn as president.
Thanks for acknowledging that. Many are in denial. I did add “for now”. I do not think Raila’s heritage or being a Luo will affect him. It becomes an issue if the politicians drum their support using those archaic nonsense.
As whether Ruto will be denied state house by a few, I plead with you and those advising Raila to ignore and dismiss Ruto’s bid at their own risk. He stands a very good chance of winning it. Any serious poll today will see him ahead with double digits numbers.
Uhuru has not publicly shown his position. His actions favor Raila. For now, he is aloof.
Uhuru may be pushing his candidate the way Kibaki did and yes, the same wazee led by Kibaki, Nick and others tried to sell Mudavadi. He was totally rejected so I would be cautious of getting support from a lame duck president.
Moi tried it in 2002 and Kibaki in 2013.
With new constitution, the same advantage Rao will have can be used by Ruto since it wont be reserved for Raila. If I were Ruto, I would support it 100% and use to lure others. A powerful prime minister going to Mt. Kenya will neutralize board room plans by Uhuru. A split in Mt. Kenya will not guarantee Rao presidency. He will not get Eastern and Coast will be split btw them. Same in Western and Nep. That to me does not look like a win for Rao.
You say, “I do not think Raila’s heritage or being a Luo will affect him. It becomes an issue if the politicians drum their support using those archaic nonsense.” You are dead wrong. There are people in Central right now, today, who will not vote for Raila because he is a Luo. These are also the same people who will not vote for anyone other than a fellow Kikuyu, never have and never will. And, btw, nobody needs to prod them or openly drum their support; the sentiment is in their DNA. That’s a fact you cannot argue with.
Nobody was more shaken than these never Railas when the handshake was announced and these are the same segment Ruto is counting on and, strategically speaking, it’s the only card he has right now–unless the powers that be, starting from Uhuru change tune and give him the hand, instead of Raila. Chances of that happening are near nil, though. Fortunately for Raila, the most important among those who swore Raila will never be president as long as they had a say, which they do, they have changed tune and now not only say he can, they will do everything to make sure that happens and that’s just a matter of time.
You say, “As whether Ruto will be denied state house by a few, I plead with you and those advising Raila to ignore and dismiss Ruto’s bid at their own risk.” I am on record even in my column to continue saying Ruto is a formidable candidate who must not be dismissed, even with the thus far subtle support Raila is getting via the handshake. I am not alone this time (I was virtually alone preaching in the endless public postings and private pleas not to let Ruto go or to bring him back after he left Pentagon and I laugh how people like Miguna laughed me off in my dogged quests but that’s history now).
You say, “[Ruto] stands a very good chance of winning it.” I disagree only because it’s not much about what chance he has of winning via the ballot than it is whether the system wants him as president. Right now they don’t want him as president therefore his chances are nil notwithstanding the vote.
You say, “Any serious poll today will see him ahead with double digits numbers.” Your wish; okay to so wish. That being said, I won’t take any poll from Kenya serious for another 10 years.
You say, “Uhuru may be pushing his candidate the way Kibaki did and yes, the same wazee led by Kibaki, Nick and others tried to sell Mudavadi. He was totally rejected so I would be cautious of getting support from a lame duck president.”
You are in the US and understand the lame duck concept but let me assure you we have no such a thing in Kenya. If you don’t know why, ask and I’ll find time and be happy to enlighten you beyond what I say below.
“Moi tried it in 2002 and Kibaki in 2013.”
Neither president failed to install their man because they were lame ducks; in Moi’s case, there was a combination of factors that did his wish in: (a) an overwhelming rejection of his project Uhuru and (b) an alternative who was acceptable to the “system.”
Take it to the bank were the opposing candidate not Kibaki, Uhuru would have been president in 2002 with a totally confident mta do attitude and nobody would have stopped that from happening so, it was not about Moi being a lame duck president but the system (of which Moi was and in some ways still is a part) saying no, there is a better alternative here and there was–for all initially, but only quickly to turn for the system.
Kibaki, of course, got his man in in 2013 so I have no idea what you’re talking about him being a lame duck president.
As to what you have said about the proposed constitutional amendments, here is all you need to know: If Ruto supports the BBI initiatives, then all it means he has bowed down to the powers that be and accepted some crumbles in the new system, rather than risking be compeletely finished politically. If he opposes and puts out his balls and dares anyone to crush them, they will.