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Siasa ya 2020; A Collection of Thoughts & Comments

18 Aug

Raila and Ruto2

My Thoughts and Comments in Social Media August 18, 2019

On someone saying Raila will have a difficult time getting support in Central:

It is easier for Raila than people assume and if there’s one person who can wow people, even the hardcore haters, it is Raila. He invited me to come see for myself back in 2013 as he campaigned in Central and I was pleasantly surprised.

His efforts paid off as he got more than the target % votes he needed to harvest there (Central) and we know, not from IEBC, but from our own tallying using live reporting from polling stations–and that less numbers from problem stations where we know numbers were cooked majorly.

That was when Raila was going against Uhuru; now Uhuru is behind him. For Raila, he’s not bothered neither would he spend a second mulling over how easy or difficult it will be. No. He’s a better campaigner than those who would worry over such.

All he needs to do, with the help of the president, Waiguru and other nationalists from the region, is to harvest record number of votes while limiting Ruto’s votes to the fews thousands of brown bag beneficiaries, haters and the even fewer who legitimately wouldn’t vote for Raila for reasons that have nothing to do with money, hate or tribalism.

On someone refusing to believe Governor Nanok has not defected from ODM:

KM you’re so anti-Raila even when faced with hard truths you would rather concoct and believe something else; one of Trump’s sycophants calls that “alternative facts.”

Here is the back-story to help you dig out of your world where no good tidings for Raila ever fails to get you upset and you’d rather it was the opposite.

First of all, having known Nanok as a friend for many years, and in particular knowing internal issues NASA faced during the 2017 campaign which several of us sounded alarm bells, Nanok being one of them, I was not surprised when Nanok started toying with the idea to join team Tangatanga.

Fast forward to yesterday, my belief is Nanok was planning to publicly part with Baba but he was overcome with the organic jubilant welcome Raila received at the event and he just couldn’t bring himself to say what he was planning to.

So, he instead changed course and said what he did and Raila knowing he had the upper hand, cleverly welcomed Nanok back from his temporary desire to join Tangatanga.

As Nanok said, (to paraphrase him) a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush.

He’s right on but one can certainly understand many a politician struggling between grabbing the brown bag and jumping to Tangatanga or remaining put with Baba. Though

I must hasten to add tor Nanok, it is not about brown bags.

The man is one of very few politicians I know who are incorruptible with money or anything else; very principled and I see a major role for him in the next national government.

Anyway, for the rest being wooed with brown bags, most are choosing the latter (staying put with Baba) and even many who already went with Ruto are monitoring things closely and will come crawling back to Baba when writing on the wall is clearer for them. He will, of course, accept them back.

Post from a netter:

SO
I would not call Ngunjiri a dream. Other than Waiguru, for central, thecrest are nightmare team. This is speculation and a sure way of finishing Waiguru. That lady Ngirichi will take advantage of this to finish her.

If I were Waiguru, I would condemn this dream team with the strongest terms possible. She said she and will be in Jubilee so whoever did this article is finishing her. Not yet Odinga. You dont let the cow see the rope.

Those in RV have one thing in common. They will be annihilated by Ruto. None can make it in 2022. Remember Ruto delivered RV/Kalenjin fir Rao in 2008 and UK in 2013 and 2017 and showed Ruto Isaac dust. With him on the ballot you expect Kalenjin to vote for Rao? That is another nightmare in RV. If Waiguru moves to ODM, her political career will come to a halt. Ngunjiri won’t make it. But Rao has a better chance in Central/Mt. Kenya

My response:

KM,
Your’e clearly stuck in the past and that’s alright. Here are the facts: first, it’s a fallacy that Ruto “delivered” RV in 2013 and 2017.

He did not.

Nobody knows who won RV in both elections as the numbers were cooked worse than 2007 and everyone including you knows that so let’s not argue about it.

Second, while I would not argue that Ruto doesn’t have a significant following in RV, what I know is Raila will give him a run for his money in the region while locking him out in all other regions.

Third, Raila is consulting very closely with people that matter in Central, including Governor Waiguru so we can agree you do not know better than they do in how to harvest votes in the region. That includes who they have as lead vote getters.
Ditto RV where the ground is fair more fertile for a good Baba harvest.

Last but not least, there won’t be such a thing as Jubilee come 2022.

Same Netter:
SO
Right now Ruto has very strong support in Mt. Kenya region. UK is wobbling.
Problem is that UK won’t be on the ballot. It will be Raila Vs Ruto. To suggest that Raila has an upper hand there NOW is very misleading.

Do you ever imagine that Raila will run on any party but ODM? You expect Uhuru who is facing opposition even in his Kiambu to tell Mt. Kenya people to leave Ruto in Jubilee and join ODM? And they will join ODM? Uhuru will have very strong magic to do that.

This is what happens. If referendum happens, it will pass even with Ruto opposition.

Seats will be there but that will be end of the marriage btw UK and Raila. To the most UK will keep off campaigns which will be good for Rao but won’t guarantee him votes.
UK seem to prefer an expanded Govt. He has not said he supports and will campaign for Raila. They both agree on expanded Govt. The other side will say it will be a wate of money and aimed at creating seats for Raila and other losers. The latter will be bought by some but it will pass.

I support the plan to create PM and probably one more seat of DPM but with calls to reduce parliamentary and other unnecessary seats. If they did that, it will have overwhelming support.

Whether extra seats makes Raila win is another story. Ruto can also use it to attract other communities. He may also use to pull Mt. Kenya on his side too.

My response:

“Right now Ruto has very strong support”

That statement wouldn’t have been true even before the handshake and before Uhuru fully realized the extent Ruto was undercutting him to the point Ruto was bragging he is running the government when Uhuru was hitting the bottle.

Did Ruto rig his URP candidates and others from Jubilee in elections everywhere in Central at the expense of Uhuru supporters? Yes he did.

Did these bought and paid for rigged in representatives start badmouthing and disrespecting Uhuru and basically saying the president was irrelevant?

Yes they did and this will be proven to be their most costly mistake because it made Uhuru resolve even more than he had previously to make sure Ruto is politically neutered and that is work in progress.

Here is what I have said about this elsewhere: “this [Ruto walking around with a swagger and his people badmouthing the president] so nfuriated Uhuru to the point he all but declared war against Ruto.”

Remember the day the president proclaimed Ruto was tangatangaing looking for 2022 votes instead of working?

That was not by accident; the president was fully briefed on what Ruto was upto and came on board with what is going on and that is, the powers that be saying Ruto ain’t seeing the inside of State House as president, or even PM at Harambee House for that matter and will see to it that is the case.

And when the powers that be say Ruto ain’t seeing the inside of State House as president, take it to the bank.

My post:

Kirinyaga Governor Ann Waiguru has shaken things in politics in articulating a strong case why Baba should finally be sworn as president. Her words and actions, along with those of others from the region and across the country will certainly this a reality come 2022.

Meanwhile, some no doubt brown bag beneficiary by the name Wangui is badmouthing Raila and Kieleweke falsely claiming that Ruto has RV and Central locked therefore Raila has no chance against him. She’s also poopooing BBI referendum proposals as an effort to create jobs for “lazy political losers.”

Her poorly written piece regurgitating Tangatanga talking points dangles like an eye sore when compared to what the good Governor said and continues to say.

In any case, even without knowing the facts, who would you believe; Waiguru or Wangui?

Waiguru, of course.

Netter response:
SO
Let us make it clear that Waiguru said Raila is acceptable in Central. She also said that she will go where Jubilee, not Uhuru or ODM or Raila will tell her to go. Take this from me, Waiguru will never defect to ODM, the party of Raila unless there was acceptable merger. If she leaves Jubilee or the party Mt. Kenya will take in 2022 [That will never ever be ODM] then will be defeated like mbaya. Her political career will come to end the way her first marriage ended. I dont think she said she will be Raila. The word you must underline is MAY.

One thing I like about you Omwenga is that you are very very hopeful. The only other factor I must remind you of is that nobody you have ever supported in Kenya for presidency ever occupied State House. So if you supports Ruto now, I will support Raila because I support only winners:). Let me remind monos like Mutuku that you never supported Moi and in 2002 you supported Nyachae before they start to accuse me of misleading them.

Rao is not going anywhere my friend. I would rather you and me support our buddy Matiang’i. Ask him of the person in KU he used to call Security Courier. He lived in KU while studying at UON. Uhuru may actually sell Matiang’i under Jubilee in place of Ruto. Raila may buy into Matiang’i. His problem is what he brings on the table but will be an easy sell in Mt. Kenya and Kenya in general compared to Baba. I think Baba and UK won’t run but will sell Matiang’i.

Guess what, if that happened, Omwenga and Kuria will campaign for Matiang’i. He will win and so in 2022, one Maurice Nandwa Khaguli will treat Kuria with a lot of respect. His poisonous tongue will be fine. Sema Matiang’i

My response:
KM you say, “She also said that she will go where Jubilee, not Uhuru or ODM or Raila will tell her to go.” I assume you did not read or have forgotten what I have said about this: there won’t be a Jubilee Party to speak of come 2022; rather, there will be a re-emergence of TNA and TNA will be in an alliance with the former NASA and that is the force Ruto will face and be shown the music. Jubilee will remain a shell of its former self as Ruto would have bolted (or forced out) with his URP to some other competing alliance that will still be David v Goliath, except Goliath will defeat whatever that David turns out to be in a KO.

No one has ever defeated the state machinery in Kenya or any other country and neither will Ruto become the first one to do so–even though clearly he thinks he can, which is his second major mistake.

You say, “One thing I like about you Omwenga is that you are very very hopeful.”
Yes, to the core.
You say, “The only other factor I must remind you of is that nobody you have ever supported in Kenya for presidency ever occupied State House.”
Here is the record:

In 2002, I supported Nyachae but, as everyone who knows anything about these things, we knew my frind and political mentor had no chance, once Raila said Kibaki tosha. Given we ALL wanted to defeat Moi (except for a few of you, if you supported Uhuru then), we cherefully rooted for Kibaki and were thrilled when he won.

In 2007, I supported Raila and he won in a landslide but Kibaki rigged the elections and declared himself president.

In 2013, I supported Raila but neither Uhuru nor Raila garnered the requisite 50% + 1 of the vote; however, the system gave the “victory” to Uhuru in a gold platter.

In 2017, I supported Raila and he decidedly won the August elections but Uhuru attempted to rig him out yet again only for the Supreme Court to say NO. Raila, against advise from many, including yours truly, decided to boycott the ensuing elections, giving Uhuru legal victory.

I therefore laugh because I know people know they are lying when they keep saying Raila is a “perenial loser” when, in fact, he has won not once but at least twice only to be denied the presidency by the powers that be.

Those are the facts. That is history.

Now, we have the handshake and President Uhuru Kenyatta–and the system, are saying they agree this cannot continue on so we must have in place both a government structure and electoral system where Kenyans can rest assured their votes will count and not negated at the whim of vifaranga vya komputa operators at the direction of State House and other government organs.

You say, “Rao is not going anywhere my friend.”

The good news is, I don’t have to take your word for that, neither should anyone.

Rather, I take the word of the president, Governor Waiguru and other like minded nationalists that it’s about time Raila was given his due chance to lead a country he has sacrificed so much for, and has already shaped and continues to shape her history.

Btw, do you know the biggest difference in Raila, his quest for the presidency and our support for him all these years?

Amepatiwa ama atapatiwa mkono na serikali.

That’s a big f***n deal as the next US president would put it.

Post on FB:

UoN Lecturer Herman Manyora is on to something here where primarily contends President Uhuru Kenyatta will remain in office beyond 2022. But the good professor is off on this and other contentions.

Nobody knows what Uhuru’s intentions are beyond 2022 but I am of the view he would not want to continue serving in any prominent capacity. Raila is not president but is keeping busy doing statesman-like things outside of government albeit many in support of the government, especially the behind the scenes strategizing to make sure the #handshake and #buildingbridges initiatives are fully implemented.

I can see Uhuru doing the same thing while enjoying life to his sunset, namely, acting as a statesman while enjoying life in retirement. His woman will be holding port as part of the expanded Executive, so, his and others’ interests will be well taken care of. Note I am using “his woman” here in the same way I would say “his man” so no insinuation here about anything beyond exactly that!

This being the case, it is moot to comment on Manyora’s other contention that Uhuru would want to vicariously be in the next government via having Matiang’i holding brief for him.

Not necessary.

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Posted by on August 18, 2019 in Politics, Uncategorized

 

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