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My Thoughts and Analysis of Where Things Stand Today with Elections 2017 and Potential Outcome

10 Aug

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Forms 34A & B’s are currently being scrutinized at the National Tallying Center.

The way I see it, there are 3 outcomes I see out of Bomas of which only 1 is good for Raila and a second only partially good:

(1) All 34A&B’s are genuine and the tally gives Raila a win above the threshold of 50%+1 (2) Some of the 34A & B’s are not genuine and the tally gives Uhuru a win above the requisite 50%+1 but those come from places where we didn’t have agents or are “inconsequential” in the larger scope of things and (3) significant number of 34A & B’s are outright fraudulent and tilt the scales in favor of Uhuru.

IEBC declares Raila winner in the first scenario but declares Uhuru in the second and third scenarios.

Raila petitions the Supreme Court in both cases (2&3) loses in #2 and gets relief in 3 only if the evidence is clear and inescapable IEBC has perpetuated a fraud in declaring winner based on fraudulent Form A&Bs but this will largely depend on how significant the “significant” number is, how widespread and whether Raila had agents in those areas. If it’s significant and widespread but Raila didn’t have agents there, the Court will dismiss the petition and Uhuru will be sworn as president.

If they find otherwise, the petition will be granted and Raila will be president.

If there’s outbreak of violence following dismissal of Raila’s petition, then we’ll have a situation akin to 2008 where Uhuru is forced or voluntarily reaches out to NASA to negotiate a deal and form a coalition government but this option will depend on on how widespread, violent and deadly the uprising is.

A credible source in Jubilee tells me there’s already a pre-determined number of destruction of property and deaths Jubilee will let happen before coming to the table to negotiate a coalition government.

The same source also tells me key string pullers in Jubilee have no interest and are adamant about one thing should this be the case, namely, being forced to form a coalition government and that is, Raila cannot be part of that government; they would only take Mudavadi and Kalonzo.

Which one of these options comes to pass? We’ll know at the conclusion of the Bomas exercise which should be later today or tomorrow for sure.

One thing the country can breath a sigh of relief is we’ve avoided the “ICC written all over its face option” I reported Uhuruto were grappling with so the wiser men and women prevailed on that leading to where we are today.

This reaffirms what some of us have known all along and that is, Uhuruto know no presidency is worth being hauled to ICC; good for them, good for the country.

The other two options I posted yesterday are in play and one is reflected in the above 3 potential outcomes.

Let’s continue praying for peace in the country.

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Posted by on August 10, 2017 in Politics

 

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