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Raila’s Dilemma After March 4 Kenya Elections

03 Sep

raila_uhuru

In this week’s Star column Raila’s Dilemma After March 4, I analyze the critical balancing act Raila must perform as he tries to remain statesman while doing what’s necessary to remain the political force he is especially given his popularity across the country.

Excepts:

In democratic societies where open and transparent elections are held, a candidate who loses usually concedes and often congratulates the winner promising to put the elections behind and work with the winner for the good of the country or constituency, as the case may be.

In reality, however, the losing candidate is immediately faced with a dilemma once the winner is declared and sworn, especially at the presidential level: Should he or she help the winning candidate to be successful upon assuming office or should he not.

If the winning candidate is successful upon being elected, then the losing candidate may as well forget about being ever elected again; at least in the following general election.

If the winning candidate is not successful in governing, then the losing candidate may or may not be the beneficiary in making the case he or she can do a better job and if the country is doing bad enough, this may be the case as voters are eager to vote out someone they believe has failed to deliver.

This, is however, not an automatic outcome.

Neither option is a good one so Raila must strike a genius act to accomplish both.

On the one hand, if Raila does nothing but sit on the sidelines while the Uhuruto presidential train barrels to an-as-yet to be known destination and hope it wrecks along the way, he may actually be forgotten because people in general and Kenyans in particular have short memory.

There is no better example of this than Raila himself, for who would have thought this man who sacrificed so much in fighting for the freedoms we enjoy now would so soon be a thing of the past hardly anyone wanted to recognise in this past elections?

Yet that’s precisely what a large portion of the Kenyan electorate did in electing a duo which actually opposed the very constitution they have now sworn to “uphold.”

Whether in fact, they’re serious or even willing to uphold the constitution especially as it relates to devolution is a different question altogether outside the scope of this article but the general consensus is, they’re unwilling to do so.

This actually opens a door for Raila to do something to strike the balance. He must chose between sitting on the sideline and being forgotten and doing something to make Uhuruto presidency sweat or tow his line for everyone’s benefit.

Raila has embarked on a campaign for a referendum to amend the constitution to force Uhuruto to fully implement the constitution’s letter of law and vision for devolution.

This push will give Raila the visibility necessary to remain in the public conscience as we count the years to the next general election. And if he succeeds in rallying the public for passage of the referendum, he can ride on that success to his third presidential victory.

In democratic societies where open and transparent elections are held, a candidate who loses usually concedes and often congratulates the winner promising to put the elections behind and work with the winner for the good of the country or constituency, as the case may be.

In reality, however, the losing candidate is immediately faced with a dilemma once the winner is declared and sworn, especially at the presidential level: Should he or she help the winning candidate to be successful upon assuming office or should he not.

If the winning candidate is successful upon being elected, then the losing candidate may as well forget about being ever elected again; at least in the following general election.

If the winning candidate is not successful in governing, then the losing candidate may or may not be the beneficiary in making the case he or she can do a better job and if the country is doing bad enough, this may be the case as voters are eager to vote out someone they believe has failed to deliver.

This, is however, not an automatic outcome.

– See more at: http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-134198/railas-dilemma-after-march-4#sthash.00gE0qa7.dpuf

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2 Comments

Posted by on September 3, 2013 in Politics

 

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2 responses to “Raila’s Dilemma After March 4 Kenya Elections

  1. VICTOR

    September 5, 2013 at 11:16 AM

    MR Omwenga answer this,if raila won the march 4 election,why the hell is he complaining about tyranny of numbers.Ddoesnt this mean that majority voted for jubilee?huh!

     
  2. Macharia karanja

    September 5, 2013 at 10:35 PM

    Yes, I totally agree that Uhuruto require strong checks but sadly the opposition has been behaving like headless chicken. Or what do u say of Raila’s visibly intoxicated Powerhead, out of tune even with his own crowd? Havent Jublee managd to paint him petty with personal entitlements debate? Raila now measures up to Kimemia but not his supposed rival Uhuru!! And what do you make of the recent Political display at Pwani with Jubilee gaining traction? And what has the Opposition done to win over the other side, joint parliamentary greed ha? Losing chance after chance, the VAT bill for example came and went, no Midiwo, no Nyenze, no Ababu no Orengo. Why get emotional over the Icc? And by the way, what did the parliamentary walkout achieve? Was it not a chance to have a rational discussion and win political points? Talk of the Opposition’s lack of direction? Tact? Policy? Focus? Talent? Or Why is the goverment getting everythng? I know u will say ‘the parliamentary numbers’ but werent the younger Orengo, Muite, Kibaki, Raila, Imanyara, Shikuku of the 1990s the parliamentary minority yet they kept in check the mad Daniel arap Moi? With all fairness, the oppositionists of today dont want work hard. They lack in quality, choosing to scramble for the goverment scrubs with low life henchmen. No matter the hardworking few like Raila are badly exposed, shouting themselves hoarse and overworked, therefore lacking in clarity of thought.

     

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