Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone.
You have seen them here month in, month out those obsessed with tribal math telling us how Raila can’t win because this or that tribe will not vote for him.
Their whole theory of voting is tribalism is here to stay and will determine these elections as well.
Well, even as we’re taking time off to relax for the holidays, I just saw yet another post by one of the tribalists touting some numbers cooked by Jubiliee purporting to show that Jubilee will carry the day come March 4th.
Only in their kitchens and heads where they cook those numbers.
Many, including yours truly, keep telling these tribal math peddlers that Raila and now Cord are pursuing a 47-CCS (47 County Campaign Strategy) which shall ensure when all the votes are cast and counted, Raila would have been reelected but this time sworn as our next president.
Cord shall also have swept the country much as ODM did in 2007, including winning key governorships across the country.
Indeed, just as it was the case leading up to 2007 elections, all polling by reputable firms such as Infotrak and Ipsos Synovate as well those privately done but not published show Raila leading comfortably among those vying for the presidency and what’s even more important is he leads in all possible combination of tickets, which means barring something extraordinary akin to what happened in 2007, Raila will be reelected but this time sworn as president.
For analysis of these scenarios that all put Raila ahead and in the case of Infotrak, that how Raila wins this thing in Round 1 as some of us have been saying and maintain shall be the case, go to Infotrak Research November 2012 Analysis and Ipsos December 2012 Polling Analysis.
One either goes with these analyses by these reputable firms or swallow hook, line and sinker and have a feast with those numbers being peddled by the tribalists designed only to show how Raila can’t win.
One of the two is and shall be proven to have been right and if you ask me, like in the US where Republicans refused to believe polling showing Obama winning to the end instead choosing to believe their own cooked numbers until the reality sunk in on election night, so too will these tribalists and tribal math peddlers get to be shaken to reality that Kenya has moved on from tribal voting to voting in the interest of our beloved country as a whole.
Those still stuck in the past with tribalism shall have no choice but come along or remain stuck in the past.