A lot has been said for a long time that Mudavadi is a State House project. The going theory has been there were those among Kibaki insiders and it was postulated right in the KSG series that this group I call KIbaki A preferred Mudavadi to Uhuru as president for a number of reasons, not the least of which is UK’s being saddled with the serious crimes against humanity charges he faces at the ICC.
Kibaki B are those who still insist the presidency must stay in the House of Mumbi and this is the group that is supporting UK.
From all indications, this latter group (Kibaki B) is a smaller and less influential group than their counterparts at Kibaki A.
UK on his part has been busy mounting what appears to be a no-holds barred presidential campaign basically oblivious of the ICC and dismissive of the other reason even Kibaki A group acknowledges is a major obstacle in the way of a UK run for presidency and this is the simply fact there is significant fatigue across the country for us to have yet another Kikuyu president.
I have now been informed by several reliable sources and can confirm that UK will not be on the ballot.
This is because it has been decided that both UK and Ruto cannot be on the same ticket and neither will they both run for the presidency come 2013.
It’s not a decision reached easily but it took a heavy leaning from Kibaki A and a group of key foreign ambassadors who have prevailed on UK and Ruto their vying together is not a good idea and apparently UK has reluctantly agreed to let Mudavadi be the flag bearer.
In other words, UK has merged with Kibaki A tbe question remains how will this take place, given the Jubilee nominations are supposed to take place tomorrow.
The going theory here is there will be a sham nomination in which UK wins in a landslide but thereafter after “further reflections” and “the country is bigger than one individual” UK will declare that he no longer wishes to pursue the presidency at least until he is cleared from the ICC.
As an aside, the reported wrangling over the Jubiliee nomination rules is simply part of this shameless effort to depict the process as being free and democratic; it is not for all the winners are pre-selected.
The irony is by getting into this marriage with TNA, Mudavadi has confirmed what many starting from yours truly predicted his whining that ODM was not democratic was simply that whining and phony as it was without any ounce of sincerity.
Anyway, given Ruto cannot be a flag-bearer for the reasons previously discussed here, chief being he has no national appeal, Mudavadi will be plugged into the slot once more confirming he is a Kibaki A project.
The question which remains is whether Kibaki B will come on board and support this ticket and the money is on they doing just that.
The other even larger question is whether the Kikuyu will vote as a bloc for UK and there the money is on that not being the case.
Indeed, we recently saw a group of MPs from the area declare that they will bolt the Jubilee alliance were UK not to be its presidential candidate.
While that may be the case, the money is on most of these very same MPs voting for whoever heads the Jubilee alliance as this is basically PNU of 2013 and those voting strictly along tribal lines will vote for the party’s presidential election even it its a mannequin.
A Raila/Mudavadi duel therefore is in the making and were that to come to pass, it shall be one very interesting match-up because it features a weak, indecisive leader from Western backed by the monied in the former Central going against a seasoned pro and master coalition builder who knows where and how to get votes.
The money is on the latter carrying the day very easily and some would say even winning in a landslide.
Only a UK run could make this elections close; everyone else going against Raila goes down by large vote margins and this is true notwithstanding what the tribal math believers say will be the case.
Get ready for a presidential elections unlike any where Kenya’s most celebrated politician has to make the last stand to seal his legacy as the Enigma.