Monthly Archives: December 2012

Jubilee’s ‘Generational Change’ Argument Is Fake Because Its Proponents Will Entrench Status Quo

happy raila

In Jubilee’s ‘Generational Change’ Will Entrench Status Quo just published by the Daily Nation online and in tomorrow’s daily, the author, Hon. Ababu Namwamba, Minister for Youth Affairs and Sports, shreds to pieces this phony argument about age and the so-called “generational change” the Jubilee coalition is shamelessly putting forth as reason to vote against Raila.

The author exposes the proponents of this fake argument as as simply being without any ideas to run on other than they are just against Raila being president for no reason other than they would rather be the president than him–never mind they have no agenda or vision for the country as he does.

As Namwamba notes in this excellent article,

Kenyans want change – change that will improve their lives, rather than that which will benefit primarily those who have already accumulated fortunes. Our people know that this is what this election is all about. They also know that the most vital criteria for assessing any presidential candidate is his or her record for fighting for the rights of all citizens, and a  demonstrated ability to implement change against powerful vested interests.

Nobody among those vying for president is more or better qualified and by far to bring about this change than Cord leader, Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga.

That’s a fact nobody can dispute save for those with their heads buried deep in the sand and refusing to accept, hear or see the truth.

Namwamba’s article follows in full:

Jubilee’s “Generational Change” will entrench the Old Guard  

By Ababu Namwamba

Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, the leaders who now lead the Jubilee coalition, have been struggling for some time to find a message that will resonate with Kenyans. They still have not been able to find one.

Their latest effort promotes the notion of change via a shift in generational leadership, which is a more interesting theme than the others they have tried to float. However, in the hands of the Jubilee leaders, this new slogan too will soon bite the dust, since Kenyans know that these leaders have always fought against change! Their history shows that their goal is to entrench the status quo. While so many courageously fought against dictatorship and inequity, they propped up a wretched system from which they profited handsomely at the expense of ordinary Kenyans.

Before this generational change slogan was deployed by Jubilee, there were a number of others they discarded because they found no traction with Kenyans. “Anyone But Raila” for President fizzled since Kenyans rejected the notion that that they would support candidates whose platform centred on uniting against one opponent – an opponent who since before the 2007 election has been consistently ranked Kenya’s most popular leader. The Anyone But Raila campaign in fact raised Prime Minister’s Raila Odinga’s stature.

Another big flop was these two leaders’ assertion that the next election was a referendum on the ICC. That was repudiated fast, when they realised it was further focusing Kenyans’ minds on the ICC cases against them! In any event, Kenyans want to know what their next president will do to improve their lives, not his view of the ICC.

On the surface, their current slogan of “generational change” is more credible, but it becomes laughable in the hands of the high priests of the status quo. These leaders fought tooth and nail against the new Constitution, and after its passage deployed their power and influence on derailing its implementation, especially those aspects dealing with Devolution.

Kenyans know that the Jubilee leaders represent the old order. This order is dominated by a select elite encompassing the super-rich, who would continue under Jubilee to monopolise wealth and power, as they have for the last 50 years. The vast majority of Kenyans are determined to vote in a new, more inclusive and equitable order, and they know that Jubilee’s “generational change” message is a smokescreen for entrenching the rule of the old guard.

But let’s face it: the Jubilee leaders are not quite spring chickens! Their ages total around a full century. They have also held powerful positions for the last 15 years, and yet have not been able to tell us what changes they fought for in that long period. One just needs to look at what the PM had achieved by the time he was 50 to realize that the Jubilee leaders are actually past their prime – while Raila is still very much in his!

In any event, it is absurd to think that age rather than a candidate’s vision and record of implementation will determine how Kenyans vote.  All three of our presidents – Kenyatta, Moi and Kibaki – were much older when in office than the PM is. Mr Kibaki was elected at the age of 72, rebuilt the economy, and campaigned tirelessly for the new Constitution when he was nearly 80! The passage of that Constitution was a truly cross generational exercise: mature leaders fighting for a new order that promises a much better Kenya for the youth – while these younger leaders fought against giving our youth a better deal.

Generational change is vital and inevitable. But the success of that change is measured not by the age of the leaders but by the positive impact their policies will have on the upcoming generations. There are some younger presidential contenders outside CORD who could contend they stand for change – Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua, Prof James ole Kiyaipi, to name three – but they have been unable so far to articulate a vision for Kenya that would lift the level of their support to within earshot of State House.

Let me tackle another important element of this deeply flawed “age” debate. The Prime Minster is in his 60s, but numerous independent commentators have cited his prodigious energy. I am regularly a witness to it as we are team mates on Bunge FC (where I lead the strike force!).

But even more important than physical energy is the intellectual capacity and ideas that pour out from the Prime Minister reveals as he constantly comes up with ideas to make Kenya a better place for all of us. But he also values immensely youthful talent in his search for change – his team includes many of us still in our thirties. I do find it strange when leaders call themselves “young” when they are about half a century old! International protocol limits that appellation to those under 35.

Kenyans want change – change that will improve their lives, rather than that which will benefit primarily those who have already accumulated fortunes. Our people know that this is what this election is all about. They also know that the most vital criteria for assessing any presidential candidate is his or her record for fighting for the rights of all citizens, and a  demonstrated ability to implement change against powerful vested interests.

They also want a president with high integrity, one whose word can be trusted. Certainly not one who can be pressured to make a decision against his wishes, and then invokes Lucifer to explain the betrayal of a legally binding pledge. Maturity, which even the young can possess, is an indispensable quality for holding the highest office in the land.

Except for those committed to supporting their ethnic communities’ leaders, we all know that Kenyans will choose on March 4 a leader they can trust  to bring about the change they desire.

Hon Namwamba is Minister for Youth Affairs and Sports

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Posted by on December 29, 2012 in Politics


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Raila Is Winning Despite What Tribal Math Peddlers Tell You–So Say Reputable Pollsters In Kenya.


Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone.

You have seen them here month in, month out those obsessed with tribal math telling us how Raila can’t win because this or that tribe will not vote for him.

Their whole theory of voting is tribalism is here to stay and will determine these elections as well.

Well, even as we’re taking time off to relax for the holidays, I just saw yet another post by one of the tribalists touting some numbers cooked by Jubiliee purporting to show that Jubilee will carry the day come March 4th.

Only in their kitchens and heads where they cook those numbers.

Many, including yours truly, keep telling these tribal math peddlers that Raila and now Cord are pursuing a 47-CCS (47 County Campaign Strategy) which shall ensure when all the votes are cast and counted, Raila would have been reelected but this time sworn as our next president.

Cord shall also have swept the country much as ODM did in 2007, including winning key governorships across the country.

Indeed, just as it was the case leading up to 2007 elections, all polling by reputable firms such as Infotrak and Ipsos Synovate as well those privately done but not published show Raila leading comfortably among those vying for the presidency and what’s even more important is he leads in all possible combination of tickets, which means barring something extraordinary akin to what happened in 2007, Raila will be reelected but this time sworn as president.

For analysis of these scenarios that all put Raila ahead and in the case of Infotrak, that how Raila wins this thing in Round 1 as some of us have been saying and maintain shall be the case, go to Infotrak Research November 2012 Analysis and Ipsos December 2012 Polling Analysis.

One either goes with these analyses by these reputable firms or swallow hook, line and sinker and have a feast with those numbers being peddled by the tribalists designed only to show how Raila can’t win.

One of the two is and shall be proven to have been right and if you ask me, like in the US where Republicans refused to believe polling showing Obama winning to the end instead choosing to believe their own cooked numbers until the reality sunk in on election night, so too will these tribalists and tribal math peddlers get to be shaken to reality that Kenya has moved on from tribal voting to voting in the interest of our beloved country as a whole.

Those still stuck in the past with tribalism shall have no choice but come along or remain stuck in the past.

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Posted by on December 29, 2012 in Politics


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Muslims Declare Support for Raila and CORD


The CORD alliance presidential candidate Raila Odinga has secured the backing of a section of Muslim clerics, rekindling the 2007 memories of a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Muslim community. According to Citizen News footage, the Muslim clerics told the Prime Minister that there was no need of an MoU, but insisted that he must ensure full implementation of the constitution, to assure all Kenyans their rightful share of the national cake.

The CORD line up, a day after its unveiling, challenged its opponents in the Kibaki succession contest to conduct issue-based campaigns, and desist from politics of name calling.

Click Here for Video Clip of Event

I congratulate our brothers from the Muslim faith for standing with the one and only one man among those seeking the presidency they have the confidence to know will lead bila ubaguzi against any Kenyan and will make sure the interests of the Muslim community are in the front burner and will remain there and better as they have always been in Raila’s order of priorities.

Speaking on the occasion of this visit by the Muslim clerics and scholars at Raila’s residence, the head of the delegation Sheikh Mohamed Warfa said to the PM, “we are assuring you the support for the presidency of the republic of Kenya and we’ll be able to go at the village level and make sure every Muslim knows hears, knows and is ready to  support and vote for the CORD presidency in the name of the Rt. Hon. Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga.”


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Posted by on December 23, 2012 in Politics, Religion


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Raila Can Win In Round 1 As Some of Us Have Been Saying From The Very Beginning

Raila and Musyoka

For more than a year now, I have been saying despite what other pundits say, Raila will win the presidency and be sworn as our next president in Round 1, which means there will not be Round 2.

I have based my position in the belief Kenyans are wiser and more informed to know of all those vying, there is only one candidate with a proven record of leadership we can count on at least to fully implement the constitution and pave way for new leadership to carry our country forward in a new direction.

That leader is none other than Raila Amolo Odinga.

In other words, Raila is the transformative leader we must have to complete the changes and reforms in government we must have because he has been crucial in the ushering in of these very reforms and has a clear vision unlike his competitors on how exactly to do this in the next administration.

We don’t need students learning how to do this or how to govern for that matter, and neither do we need a leader governing our country from the Hague, if that’s at all possible and certainly God forbid we don’t find ourselves in a situation to find out whether or it’s possible and if so how.

The position yours truly has been maintaining Raila wins this thing and even in a landslide in Round 1 is vindicated by the most recent poll as reported by The Star:

Saturday December 22, 2012                                                                                                                              By Nzau Msau.

PRIME Minister Raila Odinga’s CORD alliance may well win on the first round of the presidential election on March 4. The latest opinion poll by Strategic Research shows that CORD would take 49.7 percent of all votes if elections were held today.

Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetangula are Raila’s key partners in CORD. Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee alliance would get 43 per cent of the vote on the first round.

At the time of the Strategic Research survey, the key Jubilee partners were Uhuru, Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi. Yesterday Jubilee expelled Mudavadi and his UDF party from the coalition.

However the Strategic Research opinion poll indicated that Mudavadi was making a significant contribution to the Jubilee numbers.

Of those who preferred the Jubilee coalition, 18.4 percent wanted Musalia as the candidate compared to 71.9 percent for Uhuru and a meagre 4.3 percent for Ruto (perhaps because he only was seeking the running mate position).

Strategic Research also found that the Jubilee alliance enjoyed 25.9 percent support in Western, a figure that might fall sharply once Mudavadi quit the alliance.

Mudavadi’s departure could easily provide CORD with the extra 0.3 per cent that it would need to win on the first round.

Within CORD, Raila remains the preferred presidential candidate with 92.8 percent of respondents while Kalonzo has 6.2 per cent, according to Strategic Research.

If their preferred favorite candidates are not nominated, 75 percent said they would still vote for their preferred coalitions. However, a significant 13 percent said they would switch to others coalitions.

Of this 13 percent, 14 per cent are in Jubilee while 10 per cent are in Cord. The 10 percent of Cord who would vote in another coalition are mainly Raila’s supporters and Raila will most probably be Cord’s candidate.

In Jubilee, 33.6 percent of those who would switch are Mudavadi supporters. Therefore Jubilee could lose 4.7 percent of the vote if Mudavadi left.

In the poll, the Tunawesmake alliance of Peter Kenneth and Raphael Tuju is the third most preferred coalition at 3.1 per cent. The Pambazuko Coalition, with Eugene Wamalwa, Nicholas Biwott and Cyrus Jirongo, and Martha Karua both have 1.7 per cent. Prof Ole Kiapi is trailing with 0.2 percent support.

The poll was conducted between December 17 and 19 with face-to-face using questionnaires for 1,500 respondents over 18 years old from 36 counties.Strategic Research itself sponsored the poll.

The margin of error was plus or minus 1.6 per cent with a 95% confidence level. CORD leads in five of the eight provinces- Coast (66.4 per cent), Eastern (48.6), North Eastern (58), Nyanza (83.1) and Western (66.2). Jubilee leads in three provinces- Nairobi (49 per cent), Central (88.6) and Rift Valley (55.9).

The president must win 50 per cent of all votes, plus one, and at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in at least 24 counties. The total number of registered voters is 14.3 million.

Combined, the five provinces where CORD leads have 27 counties (Coast 6, Eastern 8, North Eastern 3, Nyanza 6 and Western 4).

Combined, the three provinces where Jubilee leads have only 20 counties – Rift Valley 14, Nairobi 1 and Central 5. If Cord carries the day, it is likely to beat the rule of at least 25 percent in 24 counties rule.

“With Jubilee falling apart, three things are likely to happen. Mudavadi’s supporters will quit and shop for another coalition. Jubilee will most likely be scandalized over the alleged dishonesty and finally CORD will get good ammunition to fight Jubilee,” said Strategic Research’s Caesar Handa when releasing the poll results yesterday. He said Jubilee ticket might be in Cord “catch-up mode” from now on.

End story.

Go CORD go!

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Posted by on December 23, 2012 in Politics


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Mudavadi Has Confirmed Yet Again That He Is Politically, A Dead Man Walking

mudavadi udf2

In Mudavadi Has Confirmed Yet Again That He Is Politically, A Dead Man Walking, published in the Star today, I examine recent developments in Kenyan politics involving Musalia Mudavadi and conclude if Mudavadi was politically dead as noted in The Political Eulogy of Musalia Mudavadi, he has now confirmed he is based on what has happened in the last few days when he was duped into entering into a marriage that has now been dissolved as quickly as it was entered into, leaving Mudavadi once again politically dead.

Ironically, only Raila can once again save this man who has demonstrated when it comes to not learning from mistakes, no one should ever think about challenging him nor ever think about breaking his record.

Not that that would be necessary as it’s doubtful we’ll ever see another politician repeat the same blunders, let alone want to.

As I note in the piece, Mudavadi should altogether quit politics and try other ventures in life.

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Posted by on December 22, 2012 in Politics, Uncategorized


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Congratulations To Raila Amolo Odinga For Being Picked As CORD Flag-Bearer

Raila and Musyoka

In a colourful ceremony the Standard describes as reminiscent of the rally by National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) leaders at the same venue on October 14, 2002, where Raila endorsed Mwai Kibaki as flag bearer through the famous ‘Kibaki Tosha!’ declaration, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka repeated the same lines with Raila being the beneficiary this time.

It is fully expected that much as Kibaki rode to victory virtually by the force of those words and the euphoria they created through election day, so too will Raila ride to victory by this endorsement even though one can say unlike Kibaki in 2002, Raila’s endorsement was a foregone conclusion only because he long ago earned it.

Congratulating Raila is nonetheless still in order if anything as a recognition that even as he has earned the nomination through his own hands and sweat–and what a contrast to others who have done nothing but want to have nominations handed to them on a silver platter–the man is now at the pinnacle of his political career and is has now embarked on his last fight for the country with this nomination and it’s a fight he must win to seal his legacy as the enigma who has done and sacrificed so much for the country along the way.

I am proud of Raila for this accomplishment and wish all of us can join in wishing him well and doing what each one of us can to make sure the man, indeed, is reelected but this time sworn as our next president.

It’s the right thing to do if we care and/or love our country or have any respect for the rule of law of which ending corruption and impunity is a part of and none is a better champion of all these among those vying for the presidency than Raila himself.

Go CORD go!

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Posted by on December 22, 2012 in Politics


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Civility in Kenyan Politics; Let’s Do Away With Hate and Other Nasty, Destructive Habits

kenya map

A few days ago, I was at the Serena meeting with a friend and business associate. Sitting not too far from our table were five gentlemen, one kept looking at me as though he wanted to say hello or something and this went on for some time but nothing was exchanged.

The person did not look any familiar to me at all but it was clear by the way he kept looking at yours truly he either knew me or was confusing me with someone he knows, which is not unusual.

My friend not being from Kenya, I did not even bother asking him whether he knew the man or anyone at that other table so, curious, I got up and went over to their table and said hi to the gentleman along with the rest of his friends at which point he immediately exclaimed, “you’re Samuel Omwenga, are you not?”

I replied in the affirmative and his next thing he says is, “you should stop beating on us” at which point I immediately knew it had to do with politics so I pressed on, “what do you mean beating on you?

He looked at me as though saying, “you should know people!”

I still had no idea who the man was, even though he had just mentioned his name.

We then went on to have a very good conversation, I assuming he belongs to the opposition (though not sure what candidate) but we talked in general terms about politics and how we should, no matter who vies, that we should have clean, peaceful, open and transparent elections.

Certainly nothing even remotely close to what we experienced in 2007.

This is my message I share with every opposition candidate I run into or know and I think if we are all committed to this simple edict, then it should all be alright regardless of who vies or wins.

After briefly chatting with this gentleman and his colleagues, one who turned out to be some land broker from coast (they had maps sprawled all over the table), I excused myself and returned to my table.

A short-while later that evening, I was meeting with several of my friends at a popular hang-out so I asked one of them whether he knew who this person was.

I am bad with names so I had to scroll down my phone book to juggle my memory and found it to which my friend responded by laughing, asking me how I could not know the man?

I confessed I didn’t know him, even though throughout our brief chat I gave him the impression I knew who he was but I am good at doing things like that especially in the presence of someone who clearly knows who I am for it’ll be rude to do anything otherwise.

The trick is to keep it short lest it becomes obvious you have no clue who the person is and that can be annoying (to them) and embarrassing to the clueless.

Anyway, it turns out this gentleman is not only a msheshimiwa from the House of Mumbi, he’s a top and close confidant of Uhuru.

I write about this not because of that simple fact; I know and have actually had chats with other presidential candidates and have blogged as being good friends to a close adviser to one of them so that in by itself is not usual neither is it worth noting.

Why I found this particular experience worth noting is how civil and quite frankly very brotherly the exchange was between yours truly and clearly someone who has not been happy in what I have written about his preferred candidate.

It also happened we met after my Star article Assessing Political Coalitions of 2013 Election Season in which I provided an objective analysis and concluded Raila’s coalition is the one which will carry the day come 2013 and I am basically half-way there in being vindicated, the so-called Jubilee alliance having already crumbled.

In a soon to be published blog, I’ll explain more why this is the case.

Back to this gentlemen I met who despite being in opposite sides on matters politics, we still had a very cordial, gentleman discussion and parted friends as we exchanged numbers and promised to keep in touch.

Contrast that with the vile, vulgar and hateful exchanges one witnesses against especially yours truly from people who support this very same candidate and you can sense what’s wrong with that picture.

Those obsessed with name calling, smearing and other evil deeds merely because they disagree politically are the immature, useless brutes they are adding no value to the national discourse.

Indeed, I have often blogged that these very same presidential candidates are at the end of the day friends and confer amicably even as their brainless supporters are engaged in name calling, smearing and hate speech in their behalf whilst they are laughing and even many times breaking bread together as they pursue whatever objectives they have.

Indeed, I once said Uhuru will endorse Raila and people thought I was kidding.

I was not.

My point is, let’s engage in politics as vigorously and even aggressively as we can but never forget at the end of the day, it’s all politics and nothing worth the hate, name calling and smears people resort to when incapable of debating or even withstanding what other say they may disagree.

Or to be more precise, let’s be civil and courteous to one another even as we disagree and certainly let’s not have or leave any room for hate in so being engaged in politics for hate will take you nowhere but down.

I am proud to say I hate nobody even those who hate me I don’t hate them back.

I forgive them and extend a hand of friendship always agree or disagree as we may.

This latest friend I met and UK advisor is just but one such example of civilized, mature people who understand we can disagree but no need to hate each other or otherwise be evil and mean to one another merely for disagreeing politically.

In fact I told him I have nothing personal against Uhuru I just state my political case against his and that’s the way it should be.

I believe if we all first learn to love another another as Kenyans, add to that an unequivocal love for our country, then everything becomes very easy to deal with and that includes even areas where we may strongly disagree such as who should be our next president.

Again, the key and message in this blog is let’s remove all hate from our political discourse and culture as a whole for that’s for the most backward of the human species which no one can make a case they are and if they try to, take a moment to tell them it’s not worth it.

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Posted by on December 22, 2012 in Politics


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