Monthly Archives: December 2012

Jubilee’s ‘Generational Change’ Argument Is Fake Because Its Proponents Will Entrench Status Quo

happy raila

In Jubilee’s ‘Generational Change’ Will Entrench Status Quo just published by the Daily Nation online and in tomorrow’s daily, the author, Hon. Ababu Namwamba, Minister for Youth Affairs and Sports, shreds to pieces this phony argument about age and the so-called “generational change” the Jubilee coalition is shamelessly putting forth as reason to vote against Raila.

The author exposes the proponents of this fake argument as as simply being without any ideas to run on other than they are just against Raila being president for no reason other than they would rather be the president than him–never mind they have no agenda or vision for the country as he does.

As Namwamba notes in this excellent article,

Kenyans want change – change that will improve their lives, rather than that which will benefit primarily those who have already accumulated fortunes. Our people know that this is what this election is all about. They also know that the most vital criteria for assessing any presidential candidate is his or her record for fighting for the rights of all citizens, and a  demonstrated ability to implement change against powerful vested interests.

Nobody among those vying for president is more or better qualified and by far to bring about this change than Cord leader, Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga.

That’s a fact nobody can dispute save for those with their heads buried deep in the sand and refusing to accept, hear or see the truth.

Namwamba’s article follows in full:

Jubilee’s “Generational Change” will entrench the Old Guard  

By Ababu Namwamba

Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, the leaders who now lead the Jubilee coalition, have been struggling for some time to find a message that will resonate with Kenyans. They still have not been able to find one.

Their latest effort promotes the notion of change via a shift in generational leadership, which is a more interesting theme than the others they have tried to float. However, in the hands of the Jubilee leaders, this new slogan too will soon bite the dust, since Kenyans know that these leaders have always fought against change! Their history shows that their goal is to entrench the status quo. While so many courageously fought against dictatorship and inequity, they propped up a wretched system from which they profited handsomely at the expense of ordinary Kenyans.

Before this generational change slogan was deployed by Jubilee, there were a number of others they discarded because they found no traction with Kenyans. “Anyone But Raila” for President fizzled since Kenyans rejected the notion that that they would support candidates whose platform centred on uniting against one opponent – an opponent who since before the 2007 election has been consistently ranked Kenya’s most popular leader. The Anyone But Raila campaign in fact raised Prime Minister’s Raila Odinga’s stature.

Another big flop was these two leaders’ assertion that the next election was a referendum on the ICC. That was repudiated fast, when they realised it was further focusing Kenyans’ minds on the ICC cases against them! In any event, Kenyans want to know what their next president will do to improve their lives, not his view of the ICC.

On the surface, their current slogan of “generational change” is more credible, but it becomes laughable in the hands of the high priests of the status quo. These leaders fought tooth and nail against the new Constitution, and after its passage deployed their power and influence on derailing its implementation, especially those aspects dealing with Devolution.

Kenyans know that the Jubilee leaders represent the old order. This order is dominated by a select elite encompassing the super-rich, who would continue under Jubilee to monopolise wealth and power, as they have for the last 50 years. The vast majority of Kenyans are determined to vote in a new, more inclusive and equitable order, and they know that Jubilee’s “generational change” message is a smokescreen for entrenching the rule of the old guard.

But let’s face it: the Jubilee leaders are not quite spring chickens! Their ages total around a full century. They have also held powerful positions for the last 15 years, and yet have not been able to tell us what changes they fought for in that long period. One just needs to look at what the PM had achieved by the time he was 50 to realize that the Jubilee leaders are actually past their prime – while Raila is still very much in his!

In any event, it is absurd to think that age rather than a candidate’s vision and record of implementation will determine how Kenyans vote.  All three of our presidents – Kenyatta, Moi and Kibaki – were much older when in office than the PM is. Mr Kibaki was elected at the age of 72, rebuilt the economy, and campaigned tirelessly for the new Constitution when he was nearly 80! The passage of that Constitution was a truly cross generational exercise: mature leaders fighting for a new order that promises a much better Kenya for the youth – while these younger leaders fought against giving our youth a better deal.

Generational change is vital and inevitable. But the success of that change is measured not by the age of the leaders but by the positive impact their policies will have on the upcoming generations. There are some younger presidential contenders outside CORD who could contend they stand for change – Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua, Prof James ole Kiyaipi, to name three – but they have been unable so far to articulate a vision for Kenya that would lift the level of their support to within earshot of State House.

Let me tackle another important element of this deeply flawed “age” debate. The Prime Minster is in his 60s, but numerous independent commentators have cited his prodigious energy. I am regularly a witness to it as we are team mates on Bunge FC (where I lead the strike force!).

But even more important than physical energy is the intellectual capacity and ideas that pour out from the Prime Minister reveals as he constantly comes up with ideas to make Kenya a better place for all of us. But he also values immensely youthful talent in his search for change – his team includes many of us still in our thirties. I do find it strange when leaders call themselves “young” when they are about half a century old! International protocol limits that appellation to those under 35.

Kenyans want change – change that will improve their lives, rather than that which will benefit primarily those who have already accumulated fortunes. Our people know that this is what this election is all about. They also know that the most vital criteria for assessing any presidential candidate is his or her record for fighting for the rights of all citizens, and a  demonstrated ability to implement change against powerful vested interests.

They also want a president with high integrity, one whose word can be trusted. Certainly not one who can be pressured to make a decision against his wishes, and then invokes Lucifer to explain the betrayal of a legally binding pledge. Maturity, which even the young can possess, is an indispensable quality for holding the highest office in the land.

Except for those committed to supporting their ethnic communities’ leaders, we all know that Kenyans will choose on March 4 a leader they can trust  to bring about the change they desire.

Hon Namwamba is Minister for Youth Affairs and Sports

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Posted by on December 29, 2012 in Politics


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Raila Is Winning Despite What Tribal Math Peddlers Tell You–So Say Reputable Pollsters In Kenya.


Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone.

You have seen them here month in, month out those obsessed with tribal math telling us how Raila can’t win because this or that tribe will not vote for him.

Their whole theory of voting is tribalism is here to stay and will determine these elections as well.

Well, even as we’re taking time off to relax for the holidays, I just saw yet another post by one of the tribalists touting some numbers cooked by Jubiliee purporting to show that Jubilee will carry the day come March 4th.

Only in their kitchens and heads where they cook those numbers.

Many, including yours truly, keep telling these tribal math peddlers that Raila and now Cord are pursuing a 47-CCS (47 County Campaign Strategy) which shall ensure when all the votes are cast and counted, Raila would have been reelected but this time sworn as our next president.

Cord shall also have swept the country much as ODM did in 2007, including winning key governorships across the country.

Indeed, just as it was the case leading up to 2007 elections, all polling by reputable firms such as Infotrak and Ipsos Synovate as well those privately done but not published show Raila leading comfortably among those vying for the presidency and what’s even more important is he leads in all possible combination of tickets, which means barring something extraordinary akin to what happened in 2007, Raila will be reelected but this time sworn as president.

For analysis of these scenarios that all put Raila ahead and in the case of Infotrak, that how Raila wins this thing in Round 1 as some of us have been saying and maintain shall be the case, go to Infotrak Research November 2012 Analysis and Ipsos December 2012 Polling Analysis.

One either goes with these analyses by these reputable firms or swallow hook, line and sinker and have a feast with those numbers being peddled by the tribalists designed only to show how Raila can’t win.

One of the two is and shall be proven to have been right and if you ask me, like in the US where Republicans refused to believe polling showing Obama winning to the end instead choosing to believe their own cooked numbers until the reality sunk in on election night, so too will these tribalists and tribal math peddlers get to be shaken to reality that Kenya has moved on from tribal voting to voting in the interest of our beloved country as a whole.

Those still stuck in the past with tribalism shall have no choice but come along or remain stuck in the past.

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Posted by on December 29, 2012 in Politics


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Muslims Declare Support for Raila and CORD


The CORD alliance presidential candidate Raila Odinga has secured the backing of a section of Muslim clerics, rekindling the 2007 memories of a controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Muslim community. According to Citizen News footage, the Muslim clerics told the Prime Minister that there was no need of an MoU, but insisted that he must ensure full implementation of the constitution, to assure all Kenyans their rightful share of the national cake.

The CORD line up, a day after its unveiling, challenged its opponents in the Kibaki succession contest to conduct issue-based campaigns, and desist from politics of name calling.

Click Here for Video Clip of Event

I congratulate our brothers from the Muslim faith for standing with the one and only one man among those seeking the presidency they have the confidence to know will lead bila ubaguzi against any Kenyan and will make sure the interests of the Muslim community are in the front burner and will remain there and better as they have always been in Raila’s order of priorities.

Speaking on the occasion of this visit by the Muslim clerics and scholars at Raila’s residence, the head of the delegation Sheikh Mohamed Warfa said to the PM, “we are assuring you the support for the presidency of the republic of Kenya and we’ll be able to go at the village level and make sure every Muslim knows hears, knows and is ready to  support and vote for the CORD presidency in the name of the Rt. Hon. Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga.”


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Posted by on December 23, 2012 in Politics, Religion


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Raila Can Win In Round 1 As Some of Us Have Been Saying From The Very Beginning

Raila and Musyoka

For more than a year now, I have been saying despite what other pundits say, Raila will win the presidency and be sworn as our next president in Round 1, which means there will not be Round 2.

I have based my position in the belief Kenyans are wiser and more informed to know of all those vying, there is only one candidate with a proven record of leadership we can count on at least to fully implement the constitution and pave way for new leadership to carry our country forward in a new direction.

That leader is none other than Raila Amolo Odinga.

In other words, Raila is the transformative leader we must have to complete the changes and reforms in government we must have because he has been crucial in the ushering in of these very reforms and has a clear vision unlike his competitors on how exactly to do this in the next administration.

We don’t need students learning how to do this or how to govern for that matter, and neither do we need a leader governing our country from the Hague, if that’s at all possible and certainly God forbid we don’t find ourselves in a situation to find out whether or it’s possible and if so how.

The position yours truly has been maintaining Raila wins this thing and even in a landslide in Round 1 is vindicated by the most recent poll as reported by The Star:

Saturday December 22, 2012                                                                                                                              By Nzau Msau.

PRIME Minister Raila Odinga’s CORD alliance may well win on the first round of the presidential election on March 4. The latest opinion poll by Strategic Research shows that CORD would take 49.7 percent of all votes if elections were held today.

Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetangula are Raila’s key partners in CORD. Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee alliance would get 43 per cent of the vote on the first round.

At the time of the Strategic Research survey, the key Jubilee partners were Uhuru, Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi. Yesterday Jubilee expelled Mudavadi and his UDF party from the coalition.

However the Strategic Research opinion poll indicated that Mudavadi was making a significant contribution to the Jubilee numbers.

Of those who preferred the Jubilee coalition, 18.4 percent wanted Musalia as the candidate compared to 71.9 percent for Uhuru and a meagre 4.3 percent for Ruto (perhaps because he only was seeking the running mate position).

Strategic Research also found that the Jubilee alliance enjoyed 25.9 percent support in Western, a figure that might fall sharply once Mudavadi quit the alliance.

Mudavadi’s departure could easily provide CORD with the extra 0.3 per cent that it would need to win on the first round.

Within CORD, Raila remains the preferred presidential candidate with 92.8 percent of respondents while Kalonzo has 6.2 per cent, according to Strategic Research.

If their preferred favorite candidates are not nominated, 75 percent said they would still vote for their preferred coalitions. However, a significant 13 percent said they would switch to others coalitions.

Of this 13 percent, 14 per cent are in Jubilee while 10 per cent are in Cord. The 10 percent of Cord who would vote in another coalition are mainly Raila’s supporters and Raila will most probably be Cord’s candidate.

In Jubilee, 33.6 percent of those who would switch are Mudavadi supporters. Therefore Jubilee could lose 4.7 percent of the vote if Mudavadi left.

In the poll, the Tunawesmake alliance of Peter Kenneth and Raphael Tuju is the third most preferred coalition at 3.1 per cent. The Pambazuko Coalition, with Eugene Wamalwa, Nicholas Biwott and Cyrus Jirongo, and Martha Karua both have 1.7 per cent. Prof Ole Kiapi is trailing with 0.2 percent support.

The poll was conducted between December 17 and 19 with face-to-face using questionnaires for 1,500 respondents over 18 years old from 36 counties.Strategic Research itself sponsored the poll.

The margin of error was plus or minus 1.6 per cent with a 95% confidence level. CORD leads in five of the eight provinces- Coast (66.4 per cent), Eastern (48.6), North Eastern (58), Nyanza (83.1) and Western (66.2). Jubilee leads in three provinces- Nairobi (49 per cent), Central (88.6) and Rift Valley (55.9).

The president must win 50 per cent of all votes, plus one, and at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in at least 24 counties. The total number of registered voters is 14.3 million.

Combined, the five provinces where CORD leads have 27 counties (Coast 6, Eastern 8, North Eastern 3, Nyanza 6 and Western 4).

Combined, the three provinces where Jubilee leads have only 20 counties – Rift Valley 14, Nairobi 1 and Central 5. If Cord carries the day, it is likely to beat the rule of at least 25 percent in 24 counties rule.

“With Jubilee falling apart, three things are likely to happen. Mudavadi’s supporters will quit and shop for another coalition. Jubilee will most likely be scandalized over the alleged dishonesty and finally CORD will get good ammunition to fight Jubilee,” said Strategic Research’s Caesar Handa when releasing the poll results yesterday. He said Jubilee ticket might be in Cord “catch-up mode” from now on.

End story.

Go CORD go!

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Posted by on December 23, 2012 in Politics


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Mudavadi Has Confirmed Yet Again That He Is Politically, A Dead Man Walking

mudavadi udf2

In Mudavadi Has Confirmed Yet Again That He Is Politically, A Dead Man Walking, published in the Star today, I examine recent developments in Kenyan politics involving Musalia Mudavadi and conclude if Mudavadi was politically dead as noted in The Political Eulogy of Musalia Mudavadi, he has now confirmed he is based on what has happened in the last few days when he was duped into entering into a marriage that has now been dissolved as quickly as it was entered into, leaving Mudavadi once again politically dead.

Ironically, only Raila can once again save this man who has demonstrated when it comes to not learning from mistakes, no one should ever think about challenging him nor ever think about breaking his record.

Not that that would be necessary as it’s doubtful we’ll ever see another politician repeat the same blunders, let alone want to.

As I note in the piece, Mudavadi should altogether quit politics and try other ventures in life.

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Posted by on December 22, 2012 in Politics, Uncategorized


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Congratulations To Raila Amolo Odinga For Being Picked As CORD Flag-Bearer

Raila and Musyoka

In a colourful ceremony the Standard describes as reminiscent of the rally by National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) leaders at the same venue on October 14, 2002, where Raila endorsed Mwai Kibaki as flag bearer through the famous ‘Kibaki Tosha!’ declaration, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka repeated the same lines with Raila being the beneficiary this time.

It is fully expected that much as Kibaki rode to victory virtually by the force of those words and the euphoria they created through election day, so too will Raila ride to victory by this endorsement even though one can say unlike Kibaki in 2002, Raila’s endorsement was a foregone conclusion only because he long ago earned it.

Congratulating Raila is nonetheless still in order if anything as a recognition that even as he has earned the nomination through his own hands and sweat–and what a contrast to others who have done nothing but want to have nominations handed to them on a silver platter–the man is now at the pinnacle of his political career and is has now embarked on his last fight for the country with this nomination and it’s a fight he must win to seal his legacy as the enigma who has done and sacrificed so much for the country along the way.

I am proud of Raila for this accomplishment and wish all of us can join in wishing him well and doing what each one of us can to make sure the man, indeed, is reelected but this time sworn as our next president.

It’s the right thing to do if we care and/or love our country or have any respect for the rule of law of which ending corruption and impunity is a part of and none is a better champion of all these among those vying for the presidency than Raila himself.

Go CORD go!

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Posted by on December 22, 2012 in Politics


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Civility in Kenyan Politics; Let’s Do Away With Hate and Other Nasty, Destructive Habits

kenya map

A few days ago, I was at the Serena meeting with a friend and business associate. Sitting not too far from our table were five gentlemen, one kept looking at me as though he wanted to say hello or something and this went on for some time but nothing was exchanged.

The person did not look any familiar to me at all but it was clear by the way he kept looking at yours truly he either knew me or was confusing me with someone he knows, which is not unusual.

My friend not being from Kenya, I did not even bother asking him whether he knew the man or anyone at that other table so, curious, I got up and went over to their table and said hi to the gentleman along with the rest of his friends at which point he immediately exclaimed, “you’re Samuel Omwenga, are you not?”

I replied in the affirmative and his next thing he says is, “you should stop beating on us” at which point I immediately knew it had to do with politics so I pressed on, “what do you mean beating on you?

He looked at me as though saying, “you should know people!”

I still had no idea who the man was, even though he had just mentioned his name.

We then went on to have a very good conversation, I assuming he belongs to the opposition (though not sure what candidate) but we talked in general terms about politics and how we should, no matter who vies, that we should have clean, peaceful, open and transparent elections.

Certainly nothing even remotely close to what we experienced in 2007.

This is my message I share with every opposition candidate I run into or know and I think if we are all committed to this simple edict, then it should all be alright regardless of who vies or wins.

After briefly chatting with this gentleman and his colleagues, one who turned out to be some land broker from coast (they had maps sprawled all over the table), I excused myself and returned to my table.

A short-while later that evening, I was meeting with several of my friends at a popular hang-out so I asked one of them whether he knew who this person was.

I am bad with names so I had to scroll down my phone book to juggle my memory and found it to which my friend responded by laughing, asking me how I could not know the man?

I confessed I didn’t know him, even though throughout our brief chat I gave him the impression I knew who he was but I am good at doing things like that especially in the presence of someone who clearly knows who I am for it’ll be rude to do anything otherwise.

The trick is to keep it short lest it becomes obvious you have no clue who the person is and that can be annoying (to them) and embarrassing to the clueless.

Anyway, it turns out this gentleman is not only a msheshimiwa from the House of Mumbi, he’s a top and close confidant of Uhuru.

I write about this not because of that simple fact; I know and have actually had chats with other presidential candidates and have blogged as being good friends to a close adviser to one of them so that in by itself is not usual neither is it worth noting.

Why I found this particular experience worth noting is how civil and quite frankly very brotherly the exchange was between yours truly and clearly someone who has not been happy in what I have written about his preferred candidate.

It also happened we met after my Star article Assessing Political Coalitions of 2013 Election Season in which I provided an objective analysis and concluded Raila’s coalition is the one which will carry the day come 2013 and I am basically half-way there in being vindicated, the so-called Jubilee alliance having already crumbled.

In a soon to be published blog, I’ll explain more why this is the case.

Back to this gentlemen I met who despite being in opposite sides on matters politics, we still had a very cordial, gentleman discussion and parted friends as we exchanged numbers and promised to keep in touch.

Contrast that with the vile, vulgar and hateful exchanges one witnesses against especially yours truly from people who support this very same candidate and you can sense what’s wrong with that picture.

Those obsessed with name calling, smearing and other evil deeds merely because they disagree politically are the immature, useless brutes they are adding no value to the national discourse.

Indeed, I have often blogged that these very same presidential candidates are at the end of the day friends and confer amicably even as their brainless supporters are engaged in name calling, smearing and hate speech in their behalf whilst they are laughing and even many times breaking bread together as they pursue whatever objectives they have.

Indeed, I once said Uhuru will endorse Raila and people thought I was kidding.

I was not.

My point is, let’s engage in politics as vigorously and even aggressively as we can but never forget at the end of the day, it’s all politics and nothing worth the hate, name calling and smears people resort to when incapable of debating or even withstanding what other say they may disagree.

Or to be more precise, let’s be civil and courteous to one another even as we disagree and certainly let’s not have or leave any room for hate in so being engaged in politics for hate will take you nowhere but down.

I am proud to say I hate nobody even those who hate me I don’t hate them back.

I forgive them and extend a hand of friendship always agree or disagree as we may.

This latest friend I met and UK advisor is just but one such example of civilized, mature people who understand we can disagree but no need to hate each other or otherwise be evil and mean to one another merely for disagreeing politically.

In fact I told him I have nothing personal against Uhuru I just state my political case against his and that’s the way it should be.

I believe if we all first learn to love another another as Kenyans, add to that an unequivocal love for our country, then everything becomes very easy to deal with and that includes even areas where we may strongly disagree such as who should be our next president.

Again, the key and message in this blog is let’s remove all hate from our political discourse and culture as a whole for that’s for the most backward of the human species which no one can make a case they are and if they try to, take a moment to tell them it’s not worth it.

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Posted by on December 22, 2012 in Politics


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Uhuru Kenyatta Will Reluctantly Abandon His Presidential Bid In Favor of Mudavadi


A lot has been said for a long time that Mudavadi is a State House project. The going theory has been there were those among Kibaki insiders and it was postulated right in the KSG series that this group I call KIbaki A preferred Mudavadi to Uhuru as president for a number of reasons, not the least of which is UK’s being saddled with the serious crimes against humanity charges he faces at the ICC.

Kibaki B are those who still insist the presidency must stay in the House of Mumbi and this is the group that is supporting UK.

From all indications, this latter group (Kibaki B) is a smaller and less influential group than their counterparts at Kibaki A.

UK on his part has been busy mounting what appears to be a no-holds barred presidential campaign basically oblivious of the ICC and dismissive of the other reason even Kibaki A group acknowledges is a major obstacle in the way of a UK run for presidency and this is the simply fact there is significant fatigue across the country for us to have yet another Kikuyu president.

I have now been informed by several reliable sources and can confirm that UK will not be on the ballot.

This is because it has been decided that both UK and Ruto cannot be on the same ticket and neither will they both run for the presidency come 2013.

It’s not a decision reached easily but it took a heavy leaning from Kibaki A and a group of key foreign ambassadors who have prevailed on UK and Ruto their vying together is not a good idea and apparently UK has reluctantly agreed to let Mudavadi be the flag bearer.

In other words, UK has merged with Kibaki A tbe question remains how will this take place, given the Jubilee nominations are supposed to take place tomorrow.

The going theory here is there will be a sham nomination in which UK wins in a landslide but thereafter after “further reflections” and “the country is bigger than one individual” UK will declare that he no longer wishes to pursue the presidency at least until he is cleared from the ICC.

As an aside, the reported wrangling over the Jubiliee nomination rules is simply part of this shameless effort to depict the process as being free and democratic; it is not for all the winners are pre-selected.

The irony is by getting into this marriage with TNA, Mudavadi has confirmed what many starting from yours truly predicted his whining that ODM was not democratic was simply that whining and phony as it was without any ounce of sincerity.

Anyway, given Ruto cannot be a flag-bearer for the reasons previously discussed here, chief being he has no national appeal, Mudavadi will be plugged into the slot once more confirming he is a Kibaki A project.

The question which remains is whether Kibaki B will come on board and support this ticket and the money is on they doing just that.

The other even larger question is whether the Kikuyu will vote as a bloc for UK and there the money is on that not being the case.

Indeed, we recently saw a group of MPs from the area declare that they will bolt the Jubilee alliance were UK not to be its presidential candidate.

While that may be the case, the money is on most of these very same MPs voting for whoever heads the Jubilee alliance as this is basically PNU of 2013 and those voting strictly along tribal lines will vote for the party’s presidential election even it its a mannequin.

A Raila/Mudavadi duel therefore is in the making and were that to come to pass, it shall be one very interesting match-up because it features a weak, indecisive leader from Western backed by the monied in the former Central going against a seasoned pro and master coalition builder who knows where and how to get votes.

The money is on the latter carrying the day very easily and some would say even winning in a landslide.

Only a UK run could make this elections close; everyone else going against Raila goes down by large vote margins and this is true notwithstanding what the tribal math believers say will be the case.

Get ready for a presidential elections unlike any where Kenya’s most celebrated politician has to make the last stand to seal his legacy as the Enigma.


Posted by on December 17, 2012 in Politics


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Assessing the Political Coalitions of 2013 Election Season

In Assessing the Political Coalitions of 2013 Election Season, published in the Star, I evaluate recently formed political coalitions of the 2013 election season and conclude Raila’s Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD) is the better poised to win the presidency and key governorships.

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Posted by on December 16, 2012 in Politics


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There Is Nothing Wrong With Raila’s Calling for the ICC Cases To Be Brought Back Home For Trial


ODM presidential candidate Prime Minister Raila Odinga has recently been saying he would work with the UN and ICC if elected to bring the ICC cases for trial back home.

This view is consistent with his very early on position that these cases should be tried at home.

Indeed, as everyone knows, Raila led efforts to establish a local tribunal to try these cases but these efforts were defeated by MPs against the idea led by none other than William Ruto and those opposed to the establishment of a local tribunal coined the refrain which they sang to no end, “don’t be be vague, let’s go to the Hague!”

Well, they sang the refrain until the bill establishing a local tribunal was defeated.

The same characters once again led by Ruto soon realized they had blundered and started singing to a different tune to the effect “let’s blame Raila for being hauled to the Hague!”

They have been haplessly and shamelessly singing the same tune much the big lie it is because everyone knows Raila has had nothing to do with these now Bensouda 4 being charged at the Hague.

Consistent with his initial position, however, Raila now wants and has promised if elected he will work to have these cases brought home for trial.

As a result of making this commitment, the PM has been criticized by some who wrongly accuse him of not caring about the PEV victims in taking this position or of doing this simply for political reasons.

The truth is neither of this is the case; Raila certainly does and has show compassion and empathy for the victims and even though his decision to call for these cases to be brought back home is not without political implications, the decision itself is not per se driven by political consideration only.

There are a number of reasons why Raila believes these cases should be brought back home and leading among those is his belief and that of many others that these cases should never have been referred to the ICC to begin with but for the stupidity of the likes of Ruto who are now whining that someone else, namely, Raila is responsible for their being hauled to the Hague.

There is also a firm belief by Raila and many others that true closure can only come if these cases are tried and concluded at home instead of some foreign country and jurisdiction essentially coming to our homes and telling us so and so has been bad, bad, bad and must be punished.

We are quite capable of making these determinations albeit with a competent and reformed judiciary which a good case can be made we now have one well underway there.

I have taken the time to respond to a member of a popular Kenyan forum known as Jukwaa who is critical of Raila’s position and re-post here because the member raises a number of issues and concerns I have heard others raise and this is now addressing the issue from purely and entirely my own perspective.

I am sure the PM and his team will in the days and weeks head address the issue as they see or deem fit.

For easy following, I have italicized the critic’s comments, concerns and questions:

Raila has beem making some irresponsible statements, to the effect that these cases can be "brought back home" and that he will work towards that end. 

Raila saying these ICC cases can be brought back home and that he will work towards that end is not irresponsible in any way.

Neither Raila nor any politician worth their name in gold can or should ever let the other side exploit an issue to their disadvantage or even doom.

That will be dumb and that’s not to say allowing the opposite to happen, namely, turning the other cheek as one is being slapped with lies and distortions, is morally principled or virtuous; it’s not.

What Raila is doing is effectively removing ICC as an issue in 2013 much as the other side is really riding on nothing but ICC falsely and shamelessly crying victim while blaming Raila for it.

They’ll be shocked at how short that strategy will fall for Kenyans are not that gullible–at least a majority going to the polls won’t be.

It is unfortunate that quite a few seem to be taking these seriously, i.e. taking them for more than  vote-getters aimed at gullible Kenyans.

Call it whatever you wish but I have told you and will repeat what Raila is saying and doing about the ICC cases is what any savvy politician worth his name in gold must do in lieu of pleasing the handful or so purists who would demand that he doesn’t much to his assured doom.

Raila has not made clear why he thinks he would succeed where the entire GoK machinery and its fancy QCs failed.

Not necessary to do so but, take it from one purely speculating, if and when the time comes to make that case to the UN or ICC, the case shall be made.

It is important here to recall in its Admissibility challenge, GoK told lie after lie and made empty promise after empty promise.   For example, the ICC was given about 4000 names and told that investigations were ongoing and prosecutions would start in Sep 2011.   A couple of months ago, Tobiko announced that not enough evidence had been found to try any of those people.


Would the ICC swallow any more stories, even it does not take into account that, far from investigating and prosecuting, GoK has been acting to hinder the process?


Neither Raila nor ODM was any part of the hapless efforts by Kibaki and Co to defer the cases.

A new government bent on doing this will have a fresh crack at it and I can assure you contrary to your adamantly insisting in the opposite, it is, actually, possible to bring these cases back home.

But none of that is actually as important as the very simple fact that the cases cannot be “brought back home” without a second Admissiblity challenge, and GoK will not mount another Admissibility challenge—for the very simple reason that it would absolutely not succeed.

You have said over and over and remain quite stubborn in maintaining the position that efforts to bring these cases back home “would absolutely not succeed” but here you’re simply wrong for one because this can, in fact, happen under the right circumstances.

A quick look at the Rome Statute will show why another Admissibility challenge will absolutely not succeed.

In The Queen’s Counsel For Kibaki On The Ocampo Six Is Doomed To Fail, penned early last year in which I examined this issue of admissibility and deferral, I noted as follows:

Start quote:

It is both a disgrace and insult to our national pride and intelligence to be lectured by the “Queen’s Counsel” more than 48 years after independence about what the Rome Statute says about obtaining a deferral from the International Criminal Court (“ICC). Kenya does not need the Queen’s Counsel much less its own Attorney General to advise her on what the requirements of a deferral from ICC are or what she may need to do to obtain one, given this 11th hour; a good law student or any good student for that matter can easily research and spell this out for free.

This writer has previously laid out what it might take to obtain a deferral given the stature of these cases and to recap, the writer believes the best way to obtain a deferral is for Kibaki to ask Raila to join him in making the request upon satisfaction of the following conditions which are obvious, given the objective of once and for all bringing closure to the question of post-election violence and these are: (1) passage of law in Kenya to impartially try the perpetrators of post-election violence locally, including the Ocampo Six (2) commitment to judicial reforms by time certain and measurable milestones to allow such trials to take place without delay (3) asking the Ocampo Six to step-down from their position pending their trials or otherwise paving the way for an unimpeded investigation and [/i][i]prosecution of the cases before an impartial special tribunal.

Third, on the question of admissibility of the Ocampo Six case, ICC only looks to see if there is a credible ongoing investigation and or prosecution of any or all of the Ocampo Six in Kenya. As of this writing, there is no such a thing going on therefore the Queen’s Counsel advise to challenge the ICC cases on this ground is indeed without basis as the circumstances stand today. Were Kibaki to agree and follow through with the conditions set forth above, including passing a law to try PEV suspects locally, then the ICC might entertain an application at this stage of the game under Article 17(1)(c) of the Statute but any other application is doomed to fail.

End quote.

The foregoing analysis remains valid the only thing I would add is, time has run out for Kibaki what I suggested in this piece written more than a year and half ago.

That, however, does not mean nothing can be done to bring the cases back home were the new government inclined to do so.

First: Whereas a first Admissiblity challenge is a matter of right, a second one is not.   A second one is constrained both in terms of time and on the basis on which it can be made.  What’s more, it would require the leave of the court to make such a challenge.

This is an accurate statement of the law about admissibility.

Second: There is no way the court would grant leave for another challenge.

This is an inaccurate assessment of the chances the court would grant such a challenge; you simply have no way of knowing this with this degree of certainty, namely, “no way.”

A better assessment would be it’s unlikely barring compelling circumstances for the court to grant such an application and I can see but no time to go into that now one such a compelling case even though if you have been following my blogs on this, I have made it abundantly clear what that is and in a few words, unity of the country or put differently, not seeking a cure that makes the disease worse.

Here is what the law says:

Article 19(4):The admissibility of a case or the jurisdiction of the Court may be challenged only once by any person or State referred to in paragraph 2. The challenge shall take place prior to or at the commencement of the trial. In [u]exceptional circumstances[/u], the Court may grant leave for a challenge to be brought more than once or at a time later than the commencement of the trial. Challenges to the admissibility of a case, at the commencement of a trial, or subsequently with the leave of the Court, may be based only on article 17, paragraph 1 (c).

Again, an accurate statement and citation of the law on this.

We can have a debate on what "exceptional circumstances" Raila, or GoK, or anyone else might have in mind; but with trials already scheduled to start in a few months, attention should be paid to the last sentence in 19(4).   

Article 17(1)(c):The person concerned has [u]already been tried[/u] for conduct which is the subject of the complaint, and a trial by the Court is not permitted under article 20, paragraph 3.

In other words, it is not enough to merely claim that they [u]will be[/u] tried back in Kenya.   (And, by the way, some fake “white-washing; trial would not fool the ICC judges or anyone else.)

I refer you to what I have said above about this.

Raila is a politcian.   As part of his "political DNA", he lusts after power, at the highest possible levels, as all politicians do.

You’re obviously entitled to your own opinion but others including yours truly would beg to differ that Raila “lusts” for power and neither do we hold the view that “all” politicians lust for power.

There is a difference between “lusting” for power and seeking and preserving power.

The former denotes something cynical, unhealthy and undesirable while the latter is all about what politics is and should be about.

And, of course, his supporters, fulfilling their "job description" as supporters, think he is the person most deserving of the most power (as do Uhuru’s supporters of Uhuru, Kenneth’s supporters of Kenneth, etc.).   Nothing fundamentally wrong with that.   [u]But[/u] the ICC process has, unfortunately, been politicized enough and more than enough and then some.   At this stage, gratuitous "additions" are neither necessary nor helpful.

I refer you to what I have said above regarding what the right thing is for a politician to do in the face of an issue being exploited to their detriment.

To the extent that anyone still believes that the cases can be "brought back home", the key question to answer is “how exactly?”

I have already laid out the conditions under which these cases could be brought back home in the piece referenced above and parts of which I have cut and pasted here.

Although I have also noted time has run out for this to happen, I can still see the possibility of bringing these cases home under these circumstances:

First, we have an open and transparent election come 2013.

Second, we have a president elected with a majority in the National Assembly that genuinely seeks justice and an end to this dark saga of our country’s history.

Third, the president and National Assembly move quickly to pass a law establishing a local tribunal to try these cases at home.

Fourth, the law is enacted.

Under these circumstances, I can see a successful petition being made to the ICC to relinquish jurisdiction under Article 17(c).

It is not true as you claim that a suspect who is the subject of the deferral mut have been tried for a case to be inadmissible on this basis; what you have done as many do is read and run with one part of the law while ignoring another pointing another direction.

Article 17(c) you have cited provides an absolute bar of ICC jurisdiction over a case that has already been tried. (This is the doctrine of double jeopardy as applied in the Rome Statute)

Article 17(1)(a), however, provides that admissibility can be challenged and had on the basis that the case “is being investigated [b]or prosecuted[/b] by a State which has jurisdiction over it, unless the State is unwilling or unable genuinely to carry out the investigation or prosecution.”

In addition to what I have noted above, there are a number of other arguments to be made to make a compelling case for the ICC to relinquish jurisdiction and I have no doubt such a strategy would involve the UN behind the scenes leaning on the ICC to do the right thing–were the circumstances to so warrant.

In a nutshell, this is the answer to your question how these cases can be brought home.

Anyone who does not have or will not give even the outlines of an answer should stay off the subject.  (Yes, that’s for Raila.)

Is it really necessary to say this?

The ICC is the best place to try these characters, and all upright Kenyans are fully behind the ICC trials.

This is an unnecessary besmirching of those with valid views and take the position these cases should be tried at home.

It doesn’t mean one is upright or crooked merely by taking a position on this question people can take either position without any ill-motive or intent.

So, let’s stop the side-shows and get on with it.

There is no side-show here; what we have and should have is a robust debate as to the meaning and implication of these ICC cases.

No one has the right and only correct answer or take but it’s through informed debate people can assess and come to terms with this very sensitive issue.


Posted by on December 9, 2012 in Politics


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