As any political student knows, all races in democratic societies tighten as the polling date approaches.
This is certainly no different in Kenya where even though Raila has been leading in every poll for a very long time, his lead as been reducing as you would expect as others fare better–or worse, depending on which poll you’re looking at.
There is no doubt Uhuru has been gaining steadily against Raila and anyone who’s not being partisan would readily agree barring the unusual, and as Raila himself has said it, this is a race between him and Uhuru.
Everyone else is an has been, except for Ruto who may still play a key role in the winning side’s prospects.
That does not mean, however, as I have seen others suggest that whoever Ruto support automatically wins.
It only means it will make it easier for that side to win for the RV vote will still be divided no matter who he backs and every indication is Ruto cannot deliver near the number delivered for the victor in 2007 (Raila) unless he agrees to back Raila in which case we shall have a repeat.
In other words, if Ruto backs Raila, we have 2007 all over again; if he backs Uhuru, the road to State House gets a little pumpy for Raila but passable nonetheless as Raila can harvest enough votes in RV on his own, without Ruto and in sufficient numbers to march into State House as our fourth president in a contest between he and Uhuru–or anyone else for that matter.
Note who I have not mentioned thus far in this analysis?
I have not because I maintain for the reasons I stated in Political Eulogy of Musalia Mudavadi that the man is finished politically even before he started on his quest as presidential candidate under the banner KSG State House Project.
Which brings me to this latest Synovate poll for which a few things can be noted.
First, on just the basis of the headline, I can’t wait to hear what anti-Railaists like David Ochwangi and others like him have to say about Synovate, which they have been trashing as unreliable simply because of it’s consistently showing Raila winning.
Will they change tune now and sing its praises simply because the poll now shows UK winning in Round 2, which I don’t buy, anyway, for the reasons stated below?
Second, and this is really key, the news in this poll is that even after being propped up as a State House project, Mudavadi is still at a lowly 7%!
Does anyone need any more evidence to vindicate my conclusions in Political Eulogy of Musalia Mudavadi?
Third, I have been saying and repeat again Raila wins this thing in Round 1 there is no Round 2 to speak of despite what tribal math peddlers claim or believe.
However, in the event we go to Round 2, I am equally confident Raila wins there because he is simply the better candidate than Uhuru; a fact even UK himself would readily admit, if he were to be intellectually honest.
Finally, but not least, the reporter of this story commits a classic journalistic faux pas in claiming, thus, “While ODM is still popular with the electorate, the party will be concerned about the growing public disaffection within the party that has resulted to defections to rival parties.”
There is no evidence that there is “growing disaffection” within the party that has “resulted to defections to rival parties” and neither has the reporter presented any.
What is happening in ODM, which is also happening with other parties, is exactly what you expect and always happens just before the general elections, namely, each politician wants to maximize their chances of being reelected and this is always a matter of local, not national politics, even though there are many instances where both are in unison in terms of prospects.
Indeed, I know several Raila friends vying for a number of governorships but may do so not from ODM with the understanding they’ll still back Raila in his bid for reelection as president.
So, let’s mourn the end of Mudavadi’s political career and get ready to root for or cheer either Raila or Uhuru as these are the only two horses in this race worth paying attention to; the rest are non-starters as they have already proven.
I am, of course, going with the assumption that UK runs and not chickens out in favor of supporting the Mudavadi project, a prospect doomed to fail anyways because it doesn’t follow as the peddlers of tribal math say that a UK support for Mudavadi ensures the politically dead Mudavadi’s coming back to life and being propelled to State House merely to serve as a robot controlled by UK and former Central plotters and salivating beneficiaries of the project.
HMK (Hon. Martha Karua) and others would beg to differ, I am sure for she and others have said they’re not into this tribal math and block voting plots and schemes others are breathlessly pursuing.
Raila gets enough progressives like HMK in the Mount Kenya region to back him up as they have indicated they will, he secures himself a second victory to State House and forever changes the heretofore dynamics of tribalism being a major determinative factor in how we elect our president.
That shall come to pass and I am sure most, if not all of us agree that will be a good thing not just for Raila and ODM, but, for the country as a whole.