The following is my response to a well known Raila basher appearing in a Kenyan forum the basher posted his comment in the form of questions directed at another blogger but post here for archival purposes. His initial post appears at the end of this blog.
Here we go…
Brother Anyumba, please allow me to reply in your behalf in further education and information of my “nephew” on these matters he only sees from the prism “how does this help or hurt Raila?” which is very limiting because if its anything that helps or tends to go in favor of Raila, he either never sees it or does but pretends he hasn’t.
First, you are obviously right and I said pretty much the same thing in Uhuru and Ruto Must Now Suspend Thier Presidential Ambitions that either or both UK and Ruto being allowed to run is a good thing for Raila and ODM.
Here is what I said for those who may have not read the piece:
There are those who argue, and these two suspects obviously believe in the same and that is, their being barred from vying is a windfall for Raila and his own presidential ambitions.
Raila’s prospects for being reelected as president actually significantly improve, almost like day and night if the two are allowed to vie and that’s a fact only those who don’t understand Kenyan politics may doubt.
This is a position yours truly has maintained from the beginning and is, in fact, on record as saying Ruto will altogether be acquitted unless he bungles in the defense of the case against him.
Second, it is needless to say false for Ochwangi to allege without any evidence, zero, zilch other than alleging in bad faith that Raila has been “going around the world trying to lobby for trials before the elections.”
This assertion is not only false, its illogical because only ICC can determine trial dates consistent with the Rome Statute and in view of its own calender, given prior cases that must be tried first.
Nothing else and certainly nobody else can tell the ICC when to hold trials or how to anyone who tells you or believes otherwise simply doesn’t understand how courts work in general or how the ICC in particular works.
Here is all you need to know about the ICC process on this: It takes at least one year before an ICC case goes to trial after confirmation of charges.
The charges against the Ocampo-4 were confirmed in January this year, which means the earliest the cases would go to trial is January 2013.
In practical examples, the Lubanga case took 22 months to get to trial; the Katanga and Ngudjolo 13 months and Bemba 14 months.
There is nothing or anyone can change this fact short of amending the Rome Statute so those saying the PM was going around seeking an earlier trial date for the case are just payukering.
The PM did no such a thing and makes no sense for anyone to do so anyway.
Third, when the PM said these suspects were fortunate to be allowed to roam around free when people accused of lesser serious crimes as regular murder languish in jail for years before trial, he was stating a fact.
However, the suspects crossed the line when they started holding the so-called “prayer rallies” and someone had to call them I have previously blogged I believe they received a cease and desist order from the ICC after their dangerous antics were brought to the court’s attention lest they be arrested and thus the reason we saw them abandon the extremely dangerous strategy they were pursuing in efforts to derail the ICC process.
Fourth, recycling PNU propaganda here from Nipate does not pass as either fact or analysis and is not even worth responding to other than to do Ochwangi and anyone else who doesn’t know a favor to say the following:
When any politician or party hires a research firm to do any study or survey, the results are known only to a handful of trusted strategists and advisers who will never leak that information.
So, when you see a news source or blog citing an “insider” disclosing purportedly negative or harmful information from such a study or survey, that “insider” is either an idiot who should not be an insider to begin with or he or she is just a figment of the imagination in the mind of whoever is peddling the nonsense.
Raila’s insiders privy to any such sensitive information such as internal surveys and studies are known and none of them is that dumb or an idiot to disclose negative information about anything pertaining to the survey or study.
So, there you have it omoigwa and the rest.
Remember my continued counsel and heed if you have not already: start practicing saying “His Excellency Raila Amolo Odinga!”
And now the post I responded to:
Oh Yeah?! Gwa! Since when? Did Captain Bandia get that memo before going around the world trying to lobby for the trials before the elections? Did the captain know that when he called for their arrest? Did his surrogates such as “detective” Midiwo and Gitobu “ I was made to face Mt.Kenya and say Uhuru tuko pamoja 3 times” Imanyara get the memo before they deliberately tried to bait the ICC to issue arrest warrants against UK and Ruto? Hahahahhaha, you really crack me up George, and maybe it is the ODM Cool aid that has gotten the best of you but the rest of us are still sober. What about the American Firm RAO hired that now reports Captain Bandia is in a much weaker position than he was in 2007 and blames him for foolishly relying on the ICC as his ticket to State house? http://nipate.com/america-now-doubts-raila-win-part-one-t13851.html So how do you now reconcile all this and spin it into a sum gain or is it a blessing for Captain Bandia? Help me understand please… wacha zako wewe, funga virago mrudi nyambani for retirement, ama? Time is up…