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This Is It for Raila, UK and Ruto

22 Dec

This is it.

In his dying days, Michael Jackson (MJ) had a vision, and was actually working on it. He aptly named it “This Is It.”

MJ was to do tour like no other and finally leave the stage while at the top.

Well, unbeknownst to him, the tour would never come to fruition as his days on earth were counting faster than he could do the show.

This Is It, may also be an apt name for the show three of our politicians are about to perform:

The Rt. Honorable Raila Amolo Odinga (Raila or RAO), son of Jaramogi, is set to run for the third and likely final time as presidential candidate.

The Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta (UK), is likely to run for the second and final time.

Hon. Wiliam Samoei Ruto, is likely to kiss his political career goodbye for at least several years, unless he plays his cards right.

Each of these politicians has a must do to survive politically in 2012 but their fortunes and misfortunes are different from one another, even though there are some parallels.

By all accounts, Raila remains the most popular politician in the country and his party, ODM, remains the most organized and active across the country.

However, this by no means he has the presidency all but sealed and delivered; quite the contrary, he has his work cut out for him, especially given everyone else is basically trying to go for his jugular.

The main challenge ahead for Raila, is containing or minimizing what damage Ruto’s departure brings to his fate.

Having survived the initial onslaught from Ruto with what some of his then allies conceded later were lies and distortions designed and perpetuated by Ruto in efforts to topple Raila, and especially having survived the greatest days of uncertainty in this onslaught when Kibaki seemed to cozy up with Ruto, one can say Raila has survived the worst of his fall-out with Ruto.

The question now for him is can he turn the fall-out into an advantage and given how things have started to turn around for Raila in Rift Valley—not by accident but by his own efforts, it is Ruto who now finds himself in the precarious and unenviable position of nearly becoming politically irrelevant.

The latest reports show growing opposition to Ruto in RV, even from within UDM, the party Ruto illegally took over, according to its former Chairman, General (Rtd.) Koech who is in court in efforts to stop what he and others say is an illegal takeover.

The irony of it is, Ruto may fight so hard to wrestle control of this party from Koech and succeed in doing so, only to face even more defined rebellion from within, splintering the party to the point of irrelevancy or the party itself may nominate someone else than Ruto it deems better suited to vie for the presidency.

Raila cannot be but happy with how fortunes have turned against Ruto and this is to say nothing about ICC, which in the end could be the proverbial last nail on Ruto’s political coffin but I doubt as I have argued before Ruto is not likely to be convicted, based on my own legal analysis of the case.

Were Ruto to be smart about all of this, he would swallow his pride and not let his ego drive him into political irrelevancy by making amends with Raila and returning to ODM.

Time is running out on him to make any move to return to ODM, however.

The more Raila makes gains in RV, the less relevant Ruto becomes and soon it would be past a point even Raila could care to have him on board.

UK on the other hand, is an interesting politician.

The man is a victim of his own upringing.

As a privileged child and son of our first president, UK has never had to fight for anything.

Everything has always been presented to him on a silver platter.

Unfortunately, however, the presidency cannot be something to be presented on a silver platter.

Former president Daniel arap Moi attempted to present the presidency to UK on a silver platter but Kenyans led by Raila wisely rejected the move.

Being the son of our first president is only second worse to being a Kikuyu running for president in 2012.

Nothing turns people’s stomachs, including many Kikuyus themselves than the idea of another Kikuyu presidency; not again, at least not this soon.

In sum, it’s Raila and Ruto, not UK who must make a performance of their lives, come 2012.

Raila has the edge, though.

The serious politician he is, he is also blessed with endless vitenda wilis much as entertaining as MJ’s This Is It.

Peace, Unity and This Is It for Raila, UK and Ruto

Omwenga

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7 Comments

Posted by on December 22, 2011 in Politics

 

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7 responses to “This Is It for Raila, UK and Ruto

  1. Samuel N. Omwenga

    December 23, 2011 at 10:52 AM

    A reader has asked me whether I have considered Ruto as VP for Raila and in response, I replied as follows:

    Millicent,

    It is very interesting you raise this question because I actually have and even literally included my views on it the section of my analysis where I urge him to return but took it out because that would have required a more lengthier analysis as I would have had to then include the pros and kons of doing so.

    I may yet do that in my final analysis I have yet to pen on my series on him so please look out for that.

    Here is what I can say for now:

    The idea of Ruto being VP was a very attractive one before the fortunes started reversing as between him and Raila.

    There was a time you would have asked me and I would have told you, and in fact, told certain people privately that Raila needed Ruto more than Ruto needed him and that would have been the ideal time to have played the VP card.

    However, fortunes turned and its now more and even predictably sooner Ruto who may desperately need Raila than Raila would need him for reasons I cannot go into detail here other than what I have been saying recently, and have provided a comprehensive analysis of its genesis in my blog Who Is William Ruto Part VI; The Succession Game And Why The Scheme To Topple Raila Has Failed.

    Thus, even though theoretically possible and to some extent practically possible to have Ruto as VP, there are more kons than pros in having Ruto as VP, if the PM continues to regain ground in RV as he is while making inroads in former Central as he also is, especially given the position I have taken in Why Raila Cannot Drop Mudavadi and Word To Raila Supporters and Admirers In East and Central.

    I never said never in that blog and left room for Raila to drop Mudavadi, provided certain conditions are met, chief of which being Mudavadi himself must be a player in such ceremonious drop but the alternative has to be a solid vote harvester and while at some point Ruto would have been ideally such a person, his stock as one diminishes each time Raila is able to harvest at least a significant portion of the vote on his own with the help of his friends and supporters in the region.

    That’s is the view I have at this time but I am an analyst and realist.

    If you ask me the same question six months from now, I may give you the same answer or one that reflects the reality and circumstances at that time.

    Political analysis is like looking into the crystal bowl; you see only what’s in it.

    Right now, what I have stated here and my blogs is what I see in that crystal bowl but that could change, depending on what else is put in the mix.

    If I had a say as to what to put in the mix, I can give you a list of things to make it perfect and Ruto would be one of them for the reasons I have been stating and even more so, because Raila as any astute politician, seek support from all of those he can get and across the country.

    Ruto is no exception.

    Peace, Unity and Ruto Needs Raila

    Omwenga

     
  2. ledama olekina

    December 25, 2011 at 1:19 AM

    sam, in my pinion kenyans are tired of these three individuals and being on the ground in kenya things are very different i fully agree with you that this is it for all of them. I am willing to bet you that none of them will be the next president of kenya. we are working hard day and night to make sure that we have a new kenya. We cannot have leaders who disregard the rule of law in kenya 2012. I know you are a die hard fan of one of the three but my friend kenyan politics is beyond the cedars and nairobi politics. Happy holidays.

     
  3. Samuel N. Omwenga

    December 25, 2011 at 3:30 AM

    Ledama,

    I am not a betting man but this is one I am willing to take you on and will make it even easier; let’s just make it between Raila and UK: UK wins, I donate USD5000 to your NGO Maasai Discovery; Raila wins, you donate USD10,000 to a charity of my choice. Deal? Place your bet right here for all to see and easy reference!!!

    Happy Holidays, pal.

    Sam

     
    • Josh Kerina

      December 25, 2011 at 10:54 PM

      Hi Sam,

      It’s interesting reading your articles (although I necessarily don’t agree with you in most of your analysis!) and I thank you for them.

      However, I feel your bet above is kinda misleading and plainly so:
      1. The earlier comment claimed a bet that ‘none’ of the three wins. No where did he state RAO or UK- this simply communicates your obsession!
      2. One wonders why you state half what you would want him contribute as bet price as your contribution- this simply reflects what you think of your audience (or readers)- you think we are stupid!

      I rest my case.

       
      • Samuel N. Omwenga

        December 26, 2011 at 7:59 AM

        Josh,

        I appreciate you find my blogs interesting to read even as you say you do not mostly agree with what I say.

        You say you rest your case here but I am left wondering how one rests a case that does not exist.

        You have obviously reached a conclusion that is simply not true about this but I am confident almost no one else reading my response to my friend Ledama would reach the conclusion you have.

        I am not even sure where “obsession” comes from when I have clearly stated why I reduced the bet from “none” to Raila and UK; to make it simple!

        How you come from that to conclude I did so because I am “obsessed” and your conclusion that I think my audience is “stupid” is both mind-boggling and a concern for you–try to re-read my comment and I am sure you can see why.

         
  4. MICHAEL N.N.

    December 26, 2011 at 2:30 AM

    This is true man.No shoody analyst here.Raila is the next president we have on score board come 2012.

     
  5. MICHAEL N.NYAGAH

    December 26, 2011 at 2:37 AM

    True man.Raila is the next prezo come 2012.A clear picture of the scene you have detailled.No shoody analyst here.

     

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