This is a blog I posted at a Kenyan board a few days ago but am migrating it here for archival purposes. Please treat as read if you read the other one…
I don’t by any means mean the ICC noose but the noose on Ruto’s political life in Kenya which, if doesn’t heed my counsel I have repeatedly given him to make amends with Raila and return to ODM as urged in my five part series on him on this blog, Ruto will be all but be politically dead-at least for five years.
I have maintained from the very beginning and after a complete legal analysis of Ruto’s case in https://omwenga.com/2011/04/07/who-is-william-ruto-part-v/ that Ruto will walk from the Hague and that none of the Ocampo Six will ever see the inside of jail for these crimes they are alleged to have committed.
I have said recently that I have yet to pen my final part on Ruto in which I offer my final plea for him to return to ODM as his only way to save his political life–and yes this despite everyone’s believe his ego is too large to do that, but political prudence sometimes demands that one forgets about his ego or swallows his pride for long term survival and this may be just the case for Ruto.
The writing is on the wall for his impending political doom unless he reverses course and returns to ODM.
Case in point, consider this: It is actually possible Ruto cannot even get the nomination to be the flag-bearer for UDM, the party he claims to be his now. Why? Because he is about to have a taste of his own medicine and even more devastatingly so courtesy of a growing rebellion within the party he now claims to own.
That’s his problem No. 1.
He cannot play second fiddle to anyone, including UK.
That’s his problem No. 2
“Kalenjins have realised the falsehoods Ruto used to spread about Raila were not about the community, but himself,” says General Koech the Chairman of UDM in my view, even though Ruto claims to have ousted him.
That’s his problem No. 3.
The Standard http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000048489&cid=4 says “All is not well in Ruto Camp” and details why, which is basically scratching the surface.
That’s his problem No. 4
Raila and ODM are steadily regaining ground in RV.
That’s his problem No. 5.
I can go on but you get my drift.
ICC aside–which in my analysis is a non-issue and, incidentally, in the unlikely event my analysis on it is wrong and Ruto is, in fact, snagged by ICC, more so the reason he should hurry up and return to ODM–in any case, ICC aside, given the foregoing, and other considerations he obviously knows, Ruto is better off returning to ODM than going full-speed with blinds on towards a cliff.