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Monthly Archives: December 2011

Words of Wisdom From Wazees To Miguna Miguna and Others

I can safely say most of us on these Internets (GB’s word) don’t know each other, other than what comes across on these screens. For some, such as yours truly, what you see coming across your screen is no different from what you can expect, if you ever came to know me in person as those of you who know me in person can attest.

Others can’t say the same for they have taken aliases and are simply actors on the net, some for good, others for evil reasons.

Regardless of who we are, I fairly certain unless one was raised by wolves (and there are some I sometimes wonder if, in fact, they were not so raised), all of us have been from childhood instilled with some sense of respect for others and in my case, respect for others is an integral part of one’s honor and integrity and more so respect for the older folk which, among Kisiis, is probably the highest virtue–at least for people my generation.

Someone, a brilliant young lady then pursuing her Ph.D at a prestigious university here in the US, once posed a question to me back in 2002 when I was supporting my good friend, Simeon Nyachae for president and her question was, why was I supporting “these old people?”

That question really threw me aback; here I was, relatively young and two years into my professional career as a lawyer and here is this equally relatively young lady of my age, with places to go herself, yet she was questioning my support for an older person or to put it more aptly, after deeper conversation, my finding that her belief was the answer to our ills in the country was to have leadership in young people and she, interestingly, looking back now, mentioned Ruto as one person we should have then all rallied behind and push him to run for the presidency.

The lady is Luo and did not want to hear about Raila, having classified him among the “old.”

For those who follow my blogs, I was one of the fiercest critics of Raila at that time so, her not caring for Raila and being the bright young Luo lady she was, was only music to my ears.

But the question remained in my mind to the point I actually had to reassess to determine why I was unfazed by the fact Nyachae was and is the Mzee he is.

It then dawned on me then for the first time it must be for three reasons:

  1. As a Kisii, I was raised in a community where I believe respect for the older folk is sacrosanct more than any other community and this translates to deferring to them in everything.
  2. My old Mzee, before he passed on, to me represented all the leadership qualities one needs to be good leader as he was–local as it may have been the case–bu a leader nonetheless and a leader having even half of those qualities, will transform a nation. I therefore see every leader from that prism, complete with age; I can’t fathom a younger person, especially in Kenya, let alone Africa, having the wisdom and experience, brilliant and gifted as one may be as both a student and practitioner of politics, to even come close to our Wazees.
  3. Yes, these same Wazees have let us down but I believe the solution is not to put top leadership position in our country in the hands of children or young boys and girls politically speaking, who may brilliant and skillful they maybe, they have just not crossed over to the age of leaders in our traditional sense. In other words, we must and shall demand that everyone has their turn and with age comes greater wisdom but not to say those so entrusted with the leadership use and abuse it at will as has been the case in the past; there has to be corresponding need to show the deference is worth it

Someone is probably wondering what does this have to do with the title of this thread and the answer is this:

Regardless of who we are on these fora or whether or not we personally know each other or only know about each other from what we read on these fora, I am fairly certain regardless of how we come across, we do have men and women we respect and pay attention to what they say, be it on these fora or in our personal lives–and yes, this includes the worst of those without manners and fond of insulting others willy nilly–they, too, have people they respect and pay attention to in their lives.

For yours truly, I do what is prominently displayed in one of my office walls; a painting by Norman Rockwell stating the Golden Rule Do Unto Others As You Would Have Them Do Unto You and this is something I have done since childhood. Indeed, I first learned this from my late Mzee who, as in many things he taught me and my siblings, he taught by example and are we glad he did.

Because of this, and I am sure many would relate to this, it has not been that much essential or even necessary to seek counsel or heed to any in most of my life because of that strong foundation in knowing the right or wrong thing to do. In a way, it’s my own Mzee’s wisdom I draw upon such sticky situations and act or do what I am certain he would have done and no one could do it better.

That does not mean I don’t listen or can’t hear what others say; quite the contrary I do and if it meshes with what makes sense, I’ll follow or heed to it, if at variance with my own sense of it for the better of all.

This is a long way of getting close to my point about being stubborn and when it’s important to listen to others, even when you truly believe you don’t need anyone else counsel or advise for you know the right or wrong to do, based on your upbringing and gift of natural wisdom and intelligence made better only with your own experience.

One of a few people I am sure those who are close to him, family or otherwise, pay attention to what he says and a household name for that matter, sent me a text after reading a blog I posted yesterday on Miguna and the text simply said on what I said to and about Miguna, “You couldn’t be more right. A bright young man suffering from magalomania.”

Miguna knows this individual very well from politics and the individual knows Miguna well enough.

Just the other day, another very senior person in Kenya told me he cannot fathom why Miguna would forget that, but for Raila fighting for months to get him a slot from his half loaf he was dealt when others hoping to did not get anything but are not bitter, Miguna would probably still be known only on these fora while trying without success to be elected MP as many others before him have.

Taking the two together; these two men of wisdom are simply saying to Miguna, first learn to be appreciative and second, please heed to counsel from others, or seek wiser counsel on how to proceed in certain situations, limitless you maybe with your own perfect counsel.

Some of you read posts in one particular forum in which I have as my second signature message, “There is never a wrong time to do the right thing; do not be ashamed or afraid to do the right thing, even when you think it’s the wrong time. Just do it.

The final curtain has not closed on this little saga involving Miguna.If he does the right thing or things from here on, the curtain for Act II of his political life may open.

I hope he gets that message or, at least, the message from the two Wazees I reference above.

Peace, Unity and the Wisdom of Wazee Rules!

Omwenga

[Unedited]

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Posted by on December 31, 2011 in Politics

 

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Congratulations to Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller For Recapturing Premiership of Jamaica

Let’s all join in congratulating Madam Portia Simpson Miller of Jamaica for recapturing the premiership after being rigged out in 2007 by the then out-of-party Jamaica Labor Party.

Let me also thank those of you who may have sent her party PNP well wishes or contributed to her campaign following a plea I made here in my blog Giving a hand to our friends in Jamaica and I thank you in her behalf.

Preliminary official results showed Simpson Miller’s People’s National Party, or PNP, winning 41 of the 63 parliamentary seats at stake in the national election.

The results gave the Jamaica Labor Party, or JLP, of Prime Minister Andrew Holness just 22 seats.

In other words, Madam Portia Miller and her party have won in a landslide and against stiff odds orchestrated by the entrenched machinery she has been fighting all these years.

As I noted in the blog above,

[i]During PEV and throughout the negotiations led by Dr. Kofi Annan, and even afterwards, many friends of Kenya watched in horror as our country stood at a brink of a civil war and offered to help in any way they could. One such friend is Her Excellency the Hon. Portia Simpson Miller, former Prime Minister of Jamaica.

In fact, Hon. Portia Simpson Miller painfully understood our situation because she had been rigged out of the premiership in her re-election bid and yes, it is possible for the out-of-power party to rig elections and a good case study of that is Jamaica and what happened to Hon. Portia Simpson Miller.

Hon. Miller is one of the most amazing person and leader you’ll ever know and Jamaica would be blessed to have her again as its PM.

Unfortunately, however, Madam Portia Miller and her party are going against an entrenched old money machinery akin to our own Kenyatta and Moi era machinery and needs all the help she and her party can get to close the gap with the forces of status quo arrayed against her progressive party and ideals.

I believe if someone does you a favor, you are obligated to return one to them or someone else in their behalf if and when you are able to, or when called to do so.

I once had a conversation with Madam Miller and can tell you her glowing love for Africa and Kenya in particular almost moved me to tears that a foreigner can love our country that much when we were busy tearing it apart.[/i]

I am sure I speak for many in saying we are all very happy Madam Portia Miller has been elected again as Prime Minister of Jamaica.

If you wish to send her and PNP a congratulatory message, go to PNP Contact Page

Peace, and Unity With The People of Jamaica!

Omwenga

Reuters Reporting on the victory:

Jamaica’s ruling party locked in tight election race

6:31pm EST

Jamaica’s ruling party locked in tight election race (02:03)

By Horace Helps

KINGSTON | Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:15pm EST

(Reuters) – Jamaica’s main opposition party rode a wave of discontent with a bad economy to a big win at the polls on Thursday, in elections that swept former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller back into office.

Preliminary official results showed Simpson Miller’s People’s National Party, or PNP, winning 41 of the 63 parliamentary seats at stake in the national election.

The results gave the Jamaica Labor Party, or JLP, of Prime Minister Andrew Holness just 22 seats.

“The people of Jamaica have spoken,” Holness, 39, told reporters late on Thursday after calling the 66-year-old Simpson Miller to concede defeat.

“I wish the new government well,” he said. “There are challenges that they will face, challenges that we are quite well aware of. And we hope for the benefit of the country and for the interest of the people of Jamaica that they will do a good job,

The center-right JLP is considered slightly more conservative than Simpson Miller’s PNP, which narrowly lost a general election in 2007 after she briefly served as Jamaica’s first female premier.

But there are no major ideological differences between the parties, in a country once notorious for political bloodletting. Analysts have said neither party would have much room for maneuver in office as it deals with a huge debt burden and high unemployment.

Many expect the new government will be forced to implement unpopular austerity measures, including possible layoffs of state workers, in an effort to shore up the economy after it received a $1.27 billion lifeline from the International Monetary Fund last year.

Simpson Miller did not spell out any belt-tightening or other economic measures in a long and rambling victory speech outside her campaign headquarters in the capital, Kingston.

But she has vowed to appeal to the IMF to extend the period Jamaica has to repay any loans, to give the Caribbean island more leeway to jump-start the economy.

Holness took office in October after his predecessor surprisingly resigned.

Although one of the Caribbean’s more developed economies, Jamaica is saddled with a public debt load totaling more than 120 percent of gross domestic product.

That has proved a huge drag on the economy, which is dependent on tourism and has failed to grow over the past four years, sputtering since the JLP took power.

Unemployment has risen to 12.9 percent from 9.8 percent in 2007.

(Writing by Tom Brown; Editing by Peter Cooney)

 
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Posted by on December 30, 2011 in Politics

 

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What Lies Ahead for Miguna; Not Exactly Enviable Either Way

The Prime Minister’s office says Miguna Miguna has been cleared to return to work, following the conclusion of disciplinary proceedings against him.

As I noted elsewhere on this blog, the reinstatement of Miguna is further evidence of our continued resolve as a country to embrace fully the rule of law and the PM must be commended for leading us in this direction as he continues to do.

In other words, the reinstatement is not only a good thing for Miguna in as far as his personal situation is concerned, it is also a victory for due process.

It is not clear whether Miguna will return to the PM’s office, however, but whether he returns or not, this episode involving his suspension and subsequent events is intriguing for a number of reasons.

No one was more surprised with the now apparent return of Miguna to the PM’s office than many of the PM’s supporters themselves who had said good riddance when Miguna was suspended and were only awaiting for the PM to finalize the booting.

They have now found out in politics, things are not always that crystal clear as to what the right or wrong move is.

On the other hand, the PM’s enemies and foes are befuddled and confused and don’t know what to make of this move.

Meanwhile, Miguna finds himself in the strange position of now being the potential enemy of those who only recently fell in love with him after hating him for some time simply because he went ballistic with their No. 1 enemy while he may rekindle the friendship lost with many of his old friends who ditched the friendship and even hated him for doing the same thing that made him the darling of Raila’s opponents.

Is it the case of keep your friends close and your enemies even closer?

One from either side of these groups may ask, but I doubt it.

Miguna is sufficiently damaged, mostly from self-inflicted wounds for the PM to be concerned one way or another about whether he is or is not on his side so one cannot say that this is keeping an enemy even closer and for several reasons.

First, even though he has made it known that he has a book in the making which he ostensibly plans to publish in the heat of the campaign and many see this as the reason the PM decided to reinstate Miguna, one cannot say this in by itself could be a compelling reason to return Miguna to the PM’s office.

This is because few will disagree if there is damage Miguna would have done to the PM, he has already done it.

All one has to do, is to watch the K24 interviews with Jeff Koinange and see in each episode, Miguna was not holding back anything he knew; in fact, one can also argue he was neither holding back anything he could manufacture to make the PM look as bad as he could be.

Having done that, one can therefore assume Miguna has let out of his system whatever worse he knew or could concoct about the PM and that therefore any book he may publish is either going to be a repetition of the same or one laced with new “revealing” information which can only be revealing to the extent it could not be imagined at the time of the interviews and since.

Second, even if one were to assume Miguna returns to the PM’s office, he is equally without ammunition the way he was or would have been were he to be reinstated under different circumstances, namely, where he had not emptied the clip on the PM before being reinstated and therefore it could be said he would still be effective as an advisor and therein lies his dilemma:

Will Miguna now start denouncing as untrue everything he said about Raila from the day he was suspended until the day he returns to work or is he going to maintain it was all true?

If the former, namely, it was all not true what he said about Raila, what does that tell you about him and, more importantly, his future prospects as a trusted advisor?

If the latter, namely, if he says all he said was true, why is he going back to work for the same person and, assuming he has a good explanation, what does that say about him and more importantly, where does that leave him with respect to his future prospects as a trusted advisor at the PM’s office?

All these are questions whose answer point to Miguna both being of little value at the PM’s office, at least not anywhere near where he would have been otherwise and equally so to the opposition.

Third, one may make the case it would be more prudent for Miguna not return to the PM’s office and make money attacking Raila and even from his yet to be published book, but that would be unprincipled for Miguna who has otherwise been known to be, all other criticisms and accusations aside, a very principled man.

Opting to make money at the expense of Raila would be akin to a pastor leaving the Church to peddle pornography.

Let’s hope not.

 
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Posted by on December 29, 2011 in Law, Politics

 

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Miguna Miguna’s Reinstatement Is Further Evidence of Kenya’s Embracing Rule of Law

Strictly, as a matter of the concept of rule of law, Miguna Miguna’s reinstatement as reported in the news, is something we all should be happy about.

Beyond that, ans especially as a matter of politics, the reinstatement has more to it than meets the eye and I am working on a blog to flush most of that out.

In the meantime, I suppose the question I posed in Is Miguna Miguna the Newt Gingrich of Kenya? has been answered, even though I still hold the view I suggested he would be a much needed addition in Parliament unlike the PM’s office where his role will certainly not be as the highlight of what it was in the past, if anything, because he may be reinstated but the enemies he made there are still there and I doubt they are rolling the red carpet for him.

One would obviously assume whatever role he is cast now, he must and cannot proceed as if the last few months have been erased from people’s minds.

I’ll tactfully and carefully dance around all the sharks ready to take me down with any false move I may be as unfortunate to make.

It’s “Yes, Sir, No, Maam” until the waters clear of the sharks.

Otherwise, the curtains must roll for Act III and the final scene which may be the most anticlimactic of all.

The question of the hour is, we know MM is returning to at least the PM’s office where he no doubt has the sharks I have alluded to above; what about out here and elsewhere? Is MM returning to the unprecedented state of being hated again by his former hater-cum-converts to admirers and now friends but immediately preceding enemies?

Who needs Pepto Bismol with MM’s reinstatement?

I bet neither.

He has neutralized himself as he has given fodder to both camps no matter what he does.

In other words, this is more about containment than victory for whatever he went against wise counsel to keep mum and resurface at the appropriate time.

On the other hand, this is what makes politics an exciting game for political junkies like your truly.

To be continued.

Peace, Unity and Happy Miguna Is Reinstated

Omwenga

 
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Posted by on December 28, 2011 in Law, Politics

 

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Is Kenya Ready for Muslim President?

Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and/or is enjoying the holidays.

I am on vacation and all my communication devices are held in quarantine from me unless I beg and am given permission from my kids to check and reply to important emails but have had a few minutes to read an exchange between and among several bloggers on Kenya forum discussing the purported presidential candidacy of Hon. Abdurkadir Mohamed, MP for Mandera and chimed in my views which I share here as well.

Addressing the combatants, I noted the following:.

In sum, all of you have jumped the gun.

While it is perfectly normal and, indeed, common for anyone to declare an interest in running for the presidency, including those everyone knows are a joke, I would not start asking the deeper philosophical and practical question whether being a Muslim is or is not helpful in running for president in Kenya.

As an analyst, I try to start my analysis on simple questions and leave the harder questions to tackle at the appropriate time.

At this juncture, there are several things I would like to know and evaluate before reaching my conclusions as whether Hon. Abdikadir Mohamed is a viable candidate:

First, I would like to know which party has nominated him or will nominate him and whether that party is in full compliance with the Political Parties Act of 2011. If he has not been nominated, I would like to know who else seeks the nomination from that party and what prospects he has of winning the nomination. If the MP is nominated by a brief-case party that stands no chance of being cleared by IEBC to run, that’s the end of my inquiry and whether or not Abdikadir is a Christian or Muslim or neither is irrelevant.

Second, if Abdikadir is nominated, then the next thing I would like to know is what system does he have in place or could have in place to harvest votes across the country to meet the constitutional requirement of 50% +1 of votes cast and carrying at least 24 counties in the country. This is another way of saying is Mr. Abdikadir a traditional candidate or one like others I have heard saying they have some magic to win the presidency rather than going through the traditional means other than strict adherence to tribalism, which I am on record saying we may finally break free from in 2012, if Raila wins the presidency with his 47-County vote harvesting strategy and I am not here saying no other candidate can achieve this; just that of all those running, he is the one I am most confident he will.

Third, if the MP does not have a system in place to harvest votes across the country or if the MP is pursuing a non-traditional path to the presidency, then I would seriously want to know whether he is a front for other interests, separate and part from the question of whether he is vying under a serious party in which case I would like to know what those interests are and whether they are good for the country. If my conclusion is the MP is a front and is vying at the behest of others whose interests are divisive or otherwise not good for the country, that’s the end of my inquiry and would not support him on that ground alone and it would not matter whether he is a Christian or Muslim or even an atheist.

Fourth, if Abdikadir is nominated by a serious party, is not a front for anyone, and shows me he has the system in place to harvest votes across the country, then I would like to know the MP stacks up against the rest of the field in leadership qualities, utilizing the criteria I have articulated in my blog The Minimum Qualities, Attributes and Skills Our Next President In Kenya Must Possess. One of the qualities I have noted in my suggested QAS, is religion.

It does not matter to me what religion one belongs to but I do vehemently oppose having a sworn or declared atheist from being elected as president for reasons I have previously stated in my many blogs on this subject.

Applying this simple analysis for everyone would help avoid premature discussion of volatile issues we can debate until we all go blue or whatever unnatural color brought about by such exercise in futility because the truth is, nobody knows to what extent are Kenyans ready to elect a Muslim as our president.

If a Muslim candidate emerges and convinces the country sufficiently to be elected president in accordance to our constitution, we should all rally behind him or her and help him govern much like anyone else.

Fifth, a country only has one leader at the top and for this reason alone, there are many reasons why who is elected to that office must be evaluated differently than who is elected or appointed to less important offices and even those who seek that office, must respect that fact and not necessarily put themselves out there as candidates merely because they meet the constitutional requirements to run for the office.

There are many jokers who say they are interested in the office and let me not mention names even though I am thinking about the likes of Bifwoli but they will be the first ones to tell you they are not serious, if they were to be honest.

Others are serious but have never even read the relevant provisions of the constitution to determine whether they, in fact, qualify to run.

There is a reason why everyone who qualifies to run for president do not.

Finally, but not least, let’s be smart about how we debate these issues.

A key in healthy debate, is starting from a premise worth debating.

What I see here, is a false premise that Abdikadir is running for president when even he himself has not publicly stated so.

If and when he does, let’s analyze his presidential run as I have outlined above.

If and when he runs, there shall be many questions he will have to answer, including how as a Muslim, he will reconcile leading a nation that is so heavily Christian or non-Muslim more in the same vein I or anyone else would have to justify to voters in a heavily Muslim or non-Christian country that I can lead them despite my being a Christian.

Citing the constitution, i.e., saying I’ll rule in accordance to the constitution is not an option for reasons I don’t have to get into, not the least of which is it’s acceptable naivete that a true leader always governs within the four corners of the law–that’s a myth I’ll expose some day.

Peace, Unity and I Have Nothing Against the Muslim Religion

Omwenga

 
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Posted by on December 26, 2011 in Politics

 

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This Is It for Raila, UK and Ruto

This is it.

In his dying days, Michael Jackson (MJ) had a vision, and was actually working on it. He aptly named it “This Is It.”

MJ was to do tour like no other and finally leave the stage while at the top.

Well, unbeknownst to him, the tour would never come to fruition as his days on earth were counting faster than he could do the show.

This Is It, may also be an apt name for the show three of our politicians are about to perform:

The Rt. Honorable Raila Amolo Odinga (Raila or RAO), son of Jaramogi, is set to run for the third and likely final time as presidential candidate.

The Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta (UK), is likely to run for the second and final time.

Hon. Wiliam Samoei Ruto, is likely to kiss his political career goodbye for at least several years, unless he plays his cards right.

Each of these politicians has a must do to survive politically in 2012 but their fortunes and misfortunes are different from one another, even though there are some parallels.

By all accounts, Raila remains the most popular politician in the country and his party, ODM, remains the most organized and active across the country.

However, this by no means he has the presidency all but sealed and delivered; quite the contrary, he has his work cut out for him, especially given everyone else is basically trying to go for his jugular.

The main challenge ahead for Raila, is containing or minimizing what damage Ruto’s departure brings to his fate.

Having survived the initial onslaught from Ruto with what some of his then allies conceded later were lies and distortions designed and perpetuated by Ruto in efforts to topple Raila, and especially having survived the greatest days of uncertainty in this onslaught when Kibaki seemed to cozy up with Ruto, one can say Raila has survived the worst of his fall-out with Ruto.

The question now for him is can he turn the fall-out into an advantage and given how things have started to turn around for Raila in Rift Valley—not by accident but by his own efforts, it is Ruto who now finds himself in the precarious and unenviable position of nearly becoming politically irrelevant.

The latest reports show growing opposition to Ruto in RV, even from within UDM, the party Ruto illegally took over, according to its former Chairman, General (Rtd.) Koech who is in court in efforts to stop what he and others say is an illegal takeover.

The irony of it is, Ruto may fight so hard to wrestle control of this party from Koech and succeed in doing so, only to face even more defined rebellion from within, splintering the party to the point of irrelevancy or the party itself may nominate someone else than Ruto it deems better suited to vie for the presidency.

Raila cannot be but happy with how fortunes have turned against Ruto and this is to say nothing about ICC, which in the end could be the proverbial last nail on Ruto’s political coffin but I doubt as I have argued before Ruto is not likely to be convicted, based on my own legal analysis of the case.

Were Ruto to be smart about all of this, he would swallow his pride and not let his ego drive him into political irrelevancy by making amends with Raila and returning to ODM.

Time is running out on him to make any move to return to ODM, however.

The more Raila makes gains in RV, the less relevant Ruto becomes and soon it would be past a point even Raila could care to have him on board.

UK on the other hand, is an interesting politician.

The man is a victim of his own upringing.

As a privileged child and son of our first president, UK has never had to fight for anything.

Everything has always been presented to him on a silver platter.

Unfortunately, however, the presidency cannot be something to be presented on a silver platter.

Former president Daniel arap Moi attempted to present the presidency to UK on a silver platter but Kenyans led by Raila wisely rejected the move.

Being the son of our first president is only second worse to being a Kikuyu running for president in 2012.

Nothing turns people’s stomachs, including many Kikuyus themselves than the idea of another Kikuyu presidency; not again, at least not this soon.

In sum, it’s Raila and Ruto, not UK who must make a performance of their lives, come 2012.

Raila has the edge, though.

The serious politician he is, he is also blessed with endless vitenda wilis much as entertaining as MJ’s This Is It.

Peace, Unity and This Is It for Raila, UK and Ruto

Omwenga

 
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Posted by on December 22, 2011 in Politics

 

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Noose Is Tighetening On Ruto; Countdown To My Last Plea To Him

This is a blog I posted at a Kenyan board a few days ago but am migrating it here for archival purposes. Please treat as read if you read the other one…

I don’t by any means mean the ICC noose but the noose on Ruto’s political life in Kenya which, if doesn’t heed my counsel I have repeatedly given him to make amends with Raila and return to ODM as urged in my five part series on him on this blog, Ruto will be all but be politically dead-at least for five years.

I have maintained from the very beginning and after a complete legal analysis of Ruto’s case in https://omwenga.com/2011/04/07/who-is-william-ruto-part-v/ that Ruto will walk from the Hague and that none of the Ocampo Six will ever see the inside of jail for these crimes they are alleged to have committed.

I have said recently that I have yet to pen my final part on Ruto in which I offer my final plea for him to return to ODM as his only way to save his political life–and yes this despite everyone’s believe his ego is too large to do that, but political prudence sometimes demands that one forgets about his ego or swallows his pride for long term survival and this may be just the case for Ruto.

The writing is on the wall for his impending political doom unless he reverses course and returns to ODM.

Case in point, consider this: It is actually possible Ruto cannot even get the nomination to be the flag-bearer for UDM, the party he claims to be his now. Why? Because he is about to have a taste of his own medicine and even more devastatingly so courtesy of a growing rebellion within the party he now claims to own.

That’s his problem No. 1.

He cannot play second fiddle to anyone, including UK.

That’s his problem No. 2

“Kalenjins have realised the falsehoods Ruto used to spread about Raila were not about the community, but himself,” says General Koech the Chairman of UDM in my view, even though Ruto claims to have ousted him.

That’s his problem No. 3.

The Standard http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000048489&cid=4 says “All is not well in Ruto Camp” and details why, which is basically scratching the surface.

That’s his problem No. 4

Raila and ODM are steadily regaining ground in RV.

That’s his problem No. 5.

I can go on but you get my drift.

ICC aside–which in my analysis is a non-issue and, incidentally, in the unlikely event my analysis on it is wrong and Ruto is, in fact, snagged by ICC, more so the reason he should hurry up and return to ODM–in any case, ICC aside, given the foregoing, and other considerations he obviously knows, Ruto is better off returning to ODM than going full-speed with blinds on towards a cliff.

 
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Posted by on December 22, 2011 in Politics

 

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