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The RV and Ruto Factor: Why Raila Is Doing Fine and Will Do Even Better Come 2012

19 Sep

My analysis upon which I base my suggestion people should start practicing saying President Raila Amolo Odinga or just Mr. President, if they can’t bring themselves to mention his name in the same breath with “president,” is predicated on the following premises I and others believe hold strong against any other analyses there may be out there:

First, Raila has and must have a 47-county winning strategy. In this view, tribalism is not a factor.

I know people are obsessed with tribalism and hope it once again shows its ugly head in 2012, I am more optimistic and say tribalism will be dealt a serious, if not fatal blow come 2012.

Second, the much exaggerated “irreversible losses” in RV will in the end be proven to be just that: exaggerated losses. As I have noted elsewhere, yes, Raila and ODM lost some ground in RV due to Ruto’s early efforts to damage and even topple Raila as leading presidential contender, but Ruto has failed miserably in his plan it’s now too late for him to prevent Raila from regaining lost ground, and even surpassing what support he had in 2007.

I am not just saying that; I have actually looked into all of this very carefully before reaching such conclusion but to understand where I am coming from, one has to read my blogs on this “RV factor,” including the following:

Who Is William Ruto Part VI: The Succession Game And Why Ruto’s Scheme To Topple Raila Failed

The News About RV ODM MPS Getting Set To Regain Ground In RV Is Not Just Good News for Raila and ODM But Great News For the Country As Well

My Response to Those In Denial About Raila’s Successful Moves in RV and ODM’s Overall Prospects in 2012

An Open Letter to H.E Daniel Retd. President Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi, C.G.H.

Third, regardless of what happens in 2012, there is no single candidate who is going to sweep any region or area, except perhaps Nyanza, and Central, if UK is at the head of whatever party he runs under. In all other cases, votes will be shared leaving only the million dollar question, who will get how many votes and where?

As I have noted above, this for Raila and ODM is a county-by-county arithmetic taking into consideration a number of factors I need not get into here for obvious reasons but I am certain the number crunchers at ODM are busy trying to figure just that out and will continue to do so until election day.

We shall let our opponents cherry-pick the counties along tribal and ethnic lines for their strategy or base it on yesterday voting trends but that’s their prerogative.

ODM is a forward looking party. We lead, others will follow.

Fourth, you cannot find a more stronger supporter of Ruto in ODM than yours truly.

So much so I have done a 6-part series on him in my blog (search the archives here) with my last and final part coming up soon in which I once more invite Ruto to return to ODM or remain adamant in carrying his cross to likely political oblivion and irrelevance.

BTW, I long ago concluded in Who Is William Ruto Part V that Ruto, Kosgey and Sang will not be convicted either at the Hague or in Kenya and even hinted I doubt the rest of the pack will be convicted or if convicted that any of them will ever see the inside of a jail and have shared my deeper strategic analysis about this with those I share privately so one can assume people are not sitting there planning strategy based on charges against Ruto or UK being confirmed or either or both being convicted.

That’s Plan B at best and nobody spends much time on plan B unless they have no confidence in Plan A.

Raila’s Plan A is and has to be predicated on the presumption none of the charges are confirmed or if confirmed, neither Ruto nor UK is convicted.

Everything else is either Plan B, C, D,E or F depending on what different scenarios may emerge, including UK announcing he no longer wishes to run and throws his support behind his friend Raila.

So, in my view, Ruto and ICC is not a factor but I maintain Ruto needs to return to ODM where he should never have wandered away from.

However, strong a proponent of his return I am unlike many in ODM who think he should be jettisoned, I do not say, do not base on and neither would I say as others mistakenly believe that “Without Ruto, Raila will have to forget the presidency” or some variation of that sentiment suggesting Ruto is indispensable for Raila to win.

Not true.

Quite the contrary, Ruto is dispensable as an unused but expired condom.

Ruto may find himself in the same posture figuratively speaking if he does not re-think and return to ODM as I advised him in ODM Prodigal Son Come Home but the call is his and his alone.

Again, I have yet to wash my hands on him with my pleas, but I know he is a smart fellow and will in time come to this realization he is better off in ODM than anywhere else.

For the same reason, I disagree that “anybody who is serious in harvesting Kalenjin votes in 2012 must talk to Ruto or else they can kiss bye the votes.”

Indeed, I have seen elsewhere rabid anti-Railaists claiming to speak on behalf of all Kalenjins that if Ruto were to return to ODM, the Kalenjins will not follow him because they hate Raila that much.

Here is the reality: Some Kelenjins hate Raila; some Kalenjins like Raila and others are indifferent.

Leading these sub-groups, are of course, their elected and local leaders.

Ruto may have sway with those Kales who for one reason or another hate Raila or those who are indifferent but the battle for RV between Raila and Ruto is among the indifferent: Who wins a majority of them, meaning the indifferent, wins RV.

It’s that simple.

As I have repeatedly said, nobody knows how important it is to win the indifferent in RV than Raila himself and anyone following the news, knows he is making progress in this direction.

He obviously need not spend sleepless nights over it as some suggest and neither does he have to “woo” Ruto for Ruto has his own self-interest and natural reasons to have him rethink his decamping from ODM very soon and this shall soon be the case, I believe.

In other words, yes Raila stands to benefit by Ruto’s coming to full realization he is headed the wrong direction and staying put in ODM and backing Raila but the converse is not true for Raila’s train to victory rumbles on whether or not Ruto is aboard.

The notion that “any other move [not wooing Ruto] is a waste of time because even those Kalenjins following Raila will soon decamp or will be swept off the Kalenjin political landscape” abuses the intelligence of the Kalenjin people and I would not want to further dignify it with a response other than to say, please refer to my comments above and specifically those regarding ending tribalism.

Finally, but not least, some are still insisting that Raila is better off with dropping Mudavadi and picking a new running mate.

I at one time briefly entertained the same view but have since changed and now firmly believe Raila will make a fatal error if he drops Mudavadi for reasons I provide in the following two blogs:

My Take On Prof. Makau Mutua Suggestion That Raila Should Drop Mudavadi In Favor of Paul Muite

Why Raila Cannot Drop Mudavadi And Word To Raila Supporters and Admirers in East And Central Kenya

Incidentally, I disagree quite often with Makau Mutua so even though we both live in “Utopia” with Mutahi Ngunyi as  one blogger suggests, we must live in different states of utopia.

You are all welcome to join us there for it’s a perfect world and the next best thing to heaven.

All Kenyans deserve to live in such a world as do the rest of the world.

Peace, Love and Unity

Omwenga

[Unedited]

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Posted by on September 19, 2011 in Politics, Uncategorized

 

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